Qq Set, But Definitely Way Behind...

[Zach6668 513]

Absolute PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $5/$106 playersConverterPre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q Q 2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero raises, BB calls, CO calls.Flop: K A Q (6SB, 3 players)Hero bets, BB calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, CO calls, Hero calls.Turn: 8 (9BB, 3 players)Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls....Bleh.BB is 58/21/1.57 after 125ish hands.CO is unknown.Also, river plan if I boat up. Lead?

[mikeysong 0]

NO U CR THE RIVER IF U BOAT UP DURRRRDO U NOT LIKE MONEY?the action on the turn says that SOMEONES GOT SOMETHING BIG AND THEYRE GOING TO FIRE THE RIVER WHEN IT GOES CHECKY CHECKY

[simo_8ball 0]

NO U CR THE RIVER IF U BOAT UP DURRRRDO U NOT LIKE MONEY?the action on the turn says that SOMEONES GOT SOMETHING BIG AND THEYRE GOING TO FIRE THE RIVER WHEN IT GOES CHECKY CHECKY

^^^What he said.Hand is standard to this point.

[Zach6668 513]

I don't like money.

[mikeysong 0]

I don't like money.

OBV AND THATS WHY YOU'RE THE MINUS EV MACHINE

[CoranMoran 0]

BB's turn check-raise and CO's 3bet both represent the nuts.What else could they make these plays with besides the J ?Very odd.What was the loser holding?--cm

[Zach6668 513]

Board paired on the river, for the first time in 2 weeks for me, lol.I panicked and led, they both called.BB had Tc7c, and the other guy had JcTx.

[greatwhite 0]

I don't like money.

Fold preflop.

[MrNiceGuy 0]

You didn't say which river card paired; I like the river lead if it was the A that paired, and I think it's close if the K or Q pairs. Unless the CO is an idiot, it's not hard to read you for a boat at that point, whether you bet or not. The 8 I think you can go for the check/raise (you need CO to bet somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 of the time).A not-insignificant drawback to check-raising is that if CO has the royal, we lose an extra bet (assuming we make the crying call). If we but him on the suited J when he 3-bets the turn, I think we can figure it's JT somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/5 of the time. (Figuring that a typical fish is more likely to play JTs or J9s than J3s or J2s).P.S. I'm not crazy about the flop 3-bet, but I don't hate it either.

[KDawgCometh 2]

P.S. I'm not crazy about the flop 3-bet, but I don't hate it either.

flop 3 bet is standidillyandard, especially 3 way. There is a decent chance that we are ahead already, and if we aren't we have 10 outs already, and the chance that by the river the turn card will pair (I'm too hungover to attempt the math for this right now to give our true odds). The flop cap obviously tells us to slow down, which zach does. obviously there is always the chance of a royal, but that likelyhood is way too slight to really factor in.

[Zach6668 513]

Well, if he has the royal, then I've got 1 out to win the BBJ, which was probably like 50k to the loser, so I'd have the odds to draw.

[KDawgCometh 2]

Well, if he has the royal, then I've got 1 out to win the BBJ, which was probably like 50k to the loser, so I'd have the odds to draw.

implied odds FTW

[MrNiceGuy 0]

flop 3 bet is standidillyandard, especially 3 way. There is a decent chance that we are ahead already, and if we aren't we have 10 outs already, and the chance that by the river the turn card will pair (I'm too hungover to attempt the math for this right now to give our true odds). The flop cap obviously tells us to slow down, which zach does. obviously there is always the chance of a royal, but that likelyhood is way too slight to really factor in.

Odds of filling (or quadding) by the river are 1-(40/47*36/46)=33.4% (slightly higher if you assume that the villains aren't holding any of our outs).I agree that, normally, getting raised on a 3-flush board is not necessarily reason to slow down with a set. But it this particular hand, I think CO's raise is overwhelmingly likely to be a straight or a flush (or, even worse, a slowplayed AA or KK). Even a moron should recognize that that monster flop likely hit hero very hard. The only plausible hand CO might raise with here that we can presently beat is a naked Jc, but for that too be the case CO would have to be loose-passive enough to limp with such a hand preflop, yet aggressive enough to raise with it on that flop. Very few players fit this description.And because I think we're behind the vast majority of the time, and because we're only 33% to win when we are, I don't want to risk knocking BB out of the pot on the flop.(If there's a bad beat jackpot, I start hoping for the royal on the flop. But as far as playing the hand, I don't think it's a concern until CO makes it fairly clear on the turn that he has the nuts. Once we are pretty sure he has the suited Jc, JTc becomes a very likely hand).

[checkymcfold 0]

edit: ignore this, i misread the number of bets in the pot like whoa.

[Zach6668 513]

That's actually the main reason I posted the hand, the turn play. I was wondering if a fold was possible.

[checkymcfold 0]

That's actually the main reason I posted the hand, the turn play. I was wondering if a fold was possible.

not with 16 bets in there already. i can only write a worst-case type story that gives us 16% equity (2 boat outs gone) on the turn, and that's probably only true about 25% of the time, so we can give ourselves the full 20% shot to boat up and go ahead and see a river. i would definitely pause to consider a fold when it's two back to us, though. i think this gets turn capped fairly often the way things look.

[KDawgCometh 2]

not with 16 bets in there already. i can only write a worst-case type story that gives us 16% equity (2 boat outs gone) on the turn, and that's probably only true about 25% of the time, so we can give ourselves the full 20% shot to boat up and go ahead and see a river. i would definitely pause to consider a fold when it's two back to us, though. i think this gets turn capped fairly often the way things look.

I don't think we could fold though when it's two back to us, with that turn action, it's pretty clear that there are two flushes out there, or one of them is being a complete retard with a straight, so, if we do quad or fill up on the river, there is a decent chance of being able to get in extra bets on the river that would offset our calling on the turn. that and the pot is so friggin huge that we need to see a river to try to quad or fill up

[checkymcfold 0]

I don't think we could fold though when it's two back to us, with that turn action, it's pretty clear that there are two flushes out there, or one of them is being a complete retard with a straight, so, if we do quad or fill up on the river, there is a decent chance of being able to get in extra bets on the river that would offset our calling on the turn. that and the pot is so friggin huge that we need to see a river to try to quad or fill up

oh, for sure. i just think it's important to THINK about folding, since it is relatively close.