Sid Simelia 0 Posted June 29, 2007 Share Posted June 29, 2007 About the sample size, I read somewhere on pocket twos in one of the articles (too lazy to find) that it depends on your ROI. If I can remember the point, it was basically that if you have an ROI of only 5 or -5 then you need like >1000 sng samples whereas if you have an ROI 20-25 you only need like 300 games. I know since I passed around 200 games according to Sharkscope and I moved up a level, I'm now north of like 450 games and still in that same 19-21% ROI level.. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Interesting discussion guys, thanks. You're right, I forgot to include the buy in fees in the original post. D'oh!I also just noticed that the rake for $5 HU matches on Stars is .25 not .50.So, according to my calculations you would need to maintain a win rate of 53% HU to make a profit:100 games at $5.25 = $525 fees53 wins = $530Profit = $5Now, if you're a decent HU player it is not hard to imagine a win rate of 53% or better over the long term. But an ITM of 53% in full table SnGs over the long term is likely not attainable. Let's assume a more realistic ITM of 35% for a good player at $5.50.100 games at $5.50 = $550 fees11 third places + 9 second places + 15 firsts = $558 (9-man)Profit = $8So, which is more attainable? A 53% HU win percentage, or a 35% full table ITM with the above 1st-2nd-3rd place breakdown? I suspect the HU win%, no? Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 But this based on such a small sample size.Long term it is very difficult to maintain that win rate.Is it really? I don't keep stats, so I don't know, but I'm thinking about 9 man SNGs right now.Everyone's skill being equal, you cash 33% of the time. Is 50% that unreasonable in SNGs?Edit: From jmbreslin: Let's assume a more realistic ITM of 35% for a good player at $5.50.I think the confusion is between ITM and ROI. If a "good" player only had a 2% advantage over dumb luck at these stakes, no one would ever be able to profit. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Is it really? I don't keep stats, so I don't know, but I'm thinking about 9 man SNGs right now.Everyone's skill being equal, you cash 33% of the time. Is 50% that unreasonable in SNGs?Edit: From jmbreslin: Let's assume a more realistic ITM of 35% for a good player at $5.50.I think the confusion is between ITM and ROI. If a "good" player only had a 2% advantage over dumb luck at these stakes, no one would ever be able to profit.You might be right, I may be confusing ITM and ROI. Link to post Share on other sites
FoxwoodsPro 0 Posted July 1, 2007 Share Posted July 1, 2007 k im not gonna read all this, but whats the general concensus Sngs more profitable the HU right? Link to post Share on other sites
DeNuts1 0 Posted July 1, 2007 Share Posted July 1, 2007 k im not gonna read all this, but whats the general concensus Sngs more profitable the HU right?Hey the rest of us had to suffer through all this math you do too! Link to post Share on other sites
Potomophobia 17 Posted July 1, 2007 Share Posted July 1, 2007 No disrespect, but I am reminded of a joke.An economist, engineer and a physicist are stranded on a desert island. They have one can of beans. The question is how to open it.The engineer says: Just drop a big rock on it and it will burst open.The physicist says: Let's build a fire, put the can over it and the pressure increase in the can will burst it open.The economist says: Let's just imagine a can opener.The answer to your question is in your assumption.Good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 k im not gonna read all this, but whats the general concensus Sngs more profitable the HU right?If an ITM of 50% at full table SnGs is attainable, then look at it this way:100 games$5.25 HU at 50% ITM = $525-$500 = $25 lossPlaying $5.50 STT at 50% ITM, you would only have to throw in a handful of wins and 2nd place finishes to equal that kind of return:$550 fees42 3rd + 4 2nd + 4 1st = $522 return$550-$522 = $28To compare properly, though, you would need to compare ITM percentages that are roughly equivalent for each type of game. A 50% ITM in STTs may be harder to attain than 50% at HU. Link to post Share on other sites
seemorenuts 0 Posted July 3, 2007 Share Posted July 3, 2007 I keep harping at my obviously correct answer but no one listens, and no one can refute my answers.There are sites out there that offer an almost daily 100% overlay on tournaments with an additional occasional 50-70% overlay on satellites feeding into them.These beat the crap out of any situation you play in where you are charged and there's no overlay.Apparently poker players are too stupid or stubborn to flock to the best deals....not to mention rakefree cash games online. Link to post Share on other sites
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