Playing Big Pots With Gutshots

[Footballguru 0]

ok 2/5 tonight. Villian has around 350 and Hero covers. Heros image is between tight and loose and def. aggresive. 2 limps and hero raises to 25 with AJ off. 1 cold call in the CO and limpers fold. Villian is tight player, older fella. Flop 235rHero fires 40$, villian makes it 100$ total.Whats the optimal player here assuming villian is on 66-JJ with a slight chance of set and 200 behind. Assuming I have some FE and probably 10 outs is a push a good move? A flat call, then fold if we blank turn? Or just fold OOP?

[mtdesmoines 3]

ok 2/5 tonight. Villian has around 350 and Hero covers. Heros image is between tight and loose and def. aggresive. 2 limps and hero raises to 25 with AJ off. 1 cold call in the CO and limpers fold. Villian is tight player, older fella. Flop 235rHero fires 40$, villian makes it 100$ total.Whats the optimal player here assuming villian is on 66-JJ with a slight chance of set and 200 behind. Assuming I have some FE and probably 10 outs is a push a good move? A flat call, then fold if we blank turn? Or just fold OOP?

Fold AINEC.

[Chavarov 0]

ok 2/5 tonight. Villian has around 350 and Hero covers. Heros image is between tight and loose and def. aggresive. 2 limps and hero raises to 25 with AJ off. 1 cold call in the CO and limpers fold. Villian is tight player, older fella. Flop 235rHero fires 40$, villian makes it 100$ total.Whats the optimal player here assuming villian is on 66-JJ with a slight chance of set and 200 behind. Assuming I have some FE and probably 10 outs is a push a good move? A flat call, then fold if we blank turn? Or just fold OOP?

I'd definitely fold here. You've fired twice and Villain doesn't seem to be going anywhere. There's also a chance of him having a set (which would leave you drawing to 4 outs and hoping he doesn't fill up...). You're getting 2.8 - 1 ($167 pot, u have to call 60 more...), and what if you hit a Jack or an A, and he's still raising you? Too risky. I would just fold and wait for a better situation. Chavarov

[Footballguru 0]

I'd definitely fold here. You've fired twice and Villain doesn't seem to be going anywhere. There's also a chance of him having a set (which would leave you drawing to 4 outs and hoping he doesn't fill up...). You're getting 2.8 - 1 ($167 pot, u have to call 60 more...), and what if you hit a Jack or an A, and he's still raising you? Too risky. I would just fold and wait for a better situation. Chavarov

pot is ~200. (2 limpers+blinds, 50 preflop from me and villian, 140 on flop). Althought that probably doesnt change anything.

[David_Nicoson 1]

It's fairly close in my opinion.

Board: 2s 3c 5dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	34.059%	  32.98% 	01.08% 			172404 		 5628.00   { AJs, AJo }Hand 1: 	65.941%	  64.86% 	01.08% 			339060 		 5628.00   { JJ-66 }

We have to invest another 260. The pot will end up being about 700, so we break even with a win percentage of 260/700 = 37%. So if the villain really folds here sometimes, then a shove is better than a fold. The problem is that this is going to look like a really good flop for a hand like TT, and I suspect he's going to look us up most of the time.If we're going to flat call, I think we should consider betting any paint on the turn.

[Merby 3]

Amongst all the times where you are facing a decision on whether or not to pursue a gutshot, I think the worst possible one is to play Ax where the gutshot is for the wheel. Three reasons:1) Since the ace is needed to complete the wheel, and most players are more likely to play hands involving an ace, it is more likely than usual that *if* you make your gutshot, you're splitting with one or more players who also have an ace.2) It is guarenteed that if you hit it, it is not the nut straight. What is more, there will be a four card straight out there, so it is *very* difficult to get a worse hand to call any bet you make (any ace or 6 makes a straight: not very disguised). Therefore not only do you have not positive implied odds, but you in fact have negative implied odds (your opponent might have 66, 67 etc)3) If you hit your ace, there is now four cards to a wheel out there, and even if you have the best hand, it's hard to feel very good about it, therefore it will be difficult to value bet (and even more difficult to get a worse hand to call).Don't forget, on top of that, it's a one card gutshot straight draw, so it carries with it the misfiortune of:a) having only 4 outs to make the straightb) since you're not drawing to broadway, it is also guarenteed to never be the nut straight if you hit it.

[robinmasters 0]

you said villian was tight so it looks like he is ready to play a big pot here with you which means u r in bad shape. yes its possible that u have 10 outs if u r lucky enough to have villian somewhere between 77-1010. i think u assuming he has 66-jj is really the smallest part of his range here. i would be much more inclined to think he has a set or 44, all of whcih have u in bad shape. with his stack i think u only have FE against 4 hands 77-1010 and maybe JJ. given you are OOP with no real hand against a tight player whos not giving your action thus far much respect on this flop i think optimal play is a fold

[fckthis 0]

just not deep enough. gotta fold it.

[tskillz187 0]

Like last poster said Villain is not deep enough to lay this down at a high enough rate to make this profitable. I personally wouldn't make this move ever, but if I were to make it he'd have at least $600 in his starting stack. The only hands Villain should fold are complete bluffs, which he may have, but it's not in the range you put him on. I think if Nicoson added 44 and sets to the range it wouldn't be nearly as close.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Like last poster said Villain is not deep enough to lay this down at a high enough rate to make this profitable. I personally wouldn't make this move ever, but if I were to make it he'd have at least $600 in his starting stack. The only hands Villain should fold are complete bluffs, which he may have, but it's not in the range you put him on. I think if Nicoson added 44 and sets to the range it wouldn't be nearly as close.

The villain makes a small raise which is either a "is my overpair good" kind of raise or a "i have a set and want to sucker you in" raise. Tight villains are almost always going to fold a hand like 99 here becuase if you have what you're repping, mainly a big overpair, then they won't call becuase they know they'll have 2 outs.I think this is a close decision. IF you think the odds of him having a set are fairly slim, then I would go ahead and push. It's not a bad gamble becuase if he folds, you win a nice pot with Ace High and if he calls, you're HOPEFULLY going to have 10 outs twice (he's about a 60-40 favorite) against his 99 or TT or whatever.I'd let the final straw be whether or not he looks like he wants action here. That's why being there in person is helpful as opposed to playing online.All that said, I'd like the move more if you're deeper, but it really shouldn't make a difference. If the villain is tight, then he's probably gonna be afraid of you having KK or QQ here and he should lay down regardless of whether your push is $200 more or $400 more.I like a little gambool and I'd push.

[linkwood 0]

It's fairly close in my opinion.

Board: 2s 3c 5dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	34.059%	  32.98% 	01.08% 			172404 		 5628.00   { AJs, AJo }Hand 1: 	65.941%	  64.86% 	01.08% 			339060 		 5628.00   { JJ-66 }

We have to invest another 260. The pot will end up being about 700, so we break even with a win percentage of 260/700 = 37%. So if the villain really folds here sometimes, then a shove is better than a fold. The problem is that this is going to look like a really good flop for a hand like TT, and I suspect he's going to look us up most of the time.If we're going to flat call, I think we should consider betting any paint on the turn.

What happens if we include 44 and 55 in the range? Is he too tight to call with those? I'll assume he's too tight to call with 22 or 33 (is he?). Have you shown down some bluffs that he's seen? Is he a smart tight player or weak? Obviously all of these things affect our decision. I'm on the fence with this one because I think its read based. When you play with tight old guys they don't all fall into the same category. Some are tight preflop and tight postflop, so they're easily bluffable. Some are tight preflop, but very loose postflop (they waited so long for that big hand, they aren't letting it go, or they have an overpair, it has to be good). My decision would hinge on which type I thought this guy was and what I thought his idea of me was. If I didn't have that information I would default to a fold.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Amongst all the times where you are facing a decision on whether or not to pursue a gutshot, I think the worst possible one is to play Ax where the gutshot is for the wheel. Three reasons:1) Since the ace is needed to complete the wheel, and most players are more likely to play hands involving an ace, it is more likely than usual that *if* you make your gutshot, you're splitting with one or more players who also have an ace.2) It is guarenteed that if you hit it, it is not the nut straight. What is more, there will be a four card straight out there, so it is *very* difficult to get a worse hand to call any bet you make (any ace or 6 makes a straight: not very disguised). Therefore not only do you have not positive implied odds, but you in fact have negative implied odds (your opponent might have 66, 67 etc)3) If you hit your ace, there is now four cards to a wheel out there, and even if you have the best hand, it's hard to feel very good about it, therefore it will be difficult to value bet (and even more difficult to get a worse hand to call).Don't forget, on top of that, it's a one card gutshot straight draw, so it carries with it the misfiortune of:a) having only 4 outs to make the straightB) since you're not drawing to broadway, it is also guarenteed to never be the nut straight if you hit it.

I like all these points. The Villain can see the board as well as you can, and he's signalled extreme doubts about your holding. If you push, he can assume you have an A. He also reasonably assumes you don't have an A4. His only worry holding any overpair is another ace hitting hte board or a 4. If you push, and I'm the villain, I instapush any over pair and you're drawing to 7/10 outs.I just think there are better spots to put the villain in.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I like all these points. The Villain can see the board as well as you can, and he's signalled extreme doubts about your holding. If you push, he can assume you have an A. He also reasonably assumes you don't have an A4. His only worry holding any overpair is another ace hitting hte board or a 4. If you push, and I'm the villain, I instapush any over pair and you're drawing to 7/10 outs.I just think there are better spots to put the villain in.

Are you saying that if I push, the villain will assume that I am pushing an AK type of hand and instacall with any overpair?The bolded part is incredibly wrong. You raised preflop and have bet the flop. If he raises and you push, he has to be SUPER worried that you have the big pair that you're representing. You're not repping AK here, you're repping KK. The villain will definitely need to be worried if you push back and he's sitting there with 88 becuase all he can beat is a bluff.As for the other post making all of the comments about the villain likely having an ace, or the 4 to a straight on the board if we improve our hand, you're a little misguided I think. We don't need to worry about whether or not we make the nut straight or not. Unless the villain has 66, what hand is he calling a preflop raise with and then raising our flop bet with that means that a 4 won't win the pot for us? Also, as far as the board getting scarier, we don't really care. We're either getting it all in on the flop or we are folding. How scary the board comes when there is no more betting left really makes no difference.

[Merby 3]

As for the other post making all of the comments about the villain likely having an ace, or the 4 to a straight on the board if we improve our hand, you're a little misguided I think.

I was merely giving you the extra problems this particular gutshot provides. My post was more of a "when considering playing a gutshot with an ace, here's some things that you should consider"......Nevertheless, in this specific case, against this opponent, I still do not feel that this is a good place to try to push him off the pot. I'm in favour of giving up the hand.

[Footballguru 0]

i really did not think he had a set. he would most likely just call me on the flop and raise if i bet the turn. A flat call on his part would have sent off warning bells in my head more than his small raise. I was fairly certain his hand was 66-JJ here, as he would re raise with QQ+ 90% of the time. Also, I am not even sure he calls my 25$ preflop with PP<77. I am not going to post results quite yet, because I like the discusion so far. Many varying opinions.

[Footballguru 0]

What happens if we include 44 and 55 in the range? Is he too tight to call with those? I'll assume he's too tight to call with 22 or 33 (is he?). Have you shown down some bluffs that he's seen? Is he a smart tight player or weak? Obviously all of these things affect our decision. I'm on the fence with this one because I think its read based. When you play with tight old guys they don't all fall into the same category. Some are tight preflop and tight postflop, so they're easily bluffable. Some are tight preflop, but very loose postflop (they waited so long for that big hand, they aren't letting it go, or they have an overpair, it has to be good). My decision would hinge on which type I thought this guy was and what I thought his idea of me was. If I didn't have that information I would default to a fold.

I didnt show any bluffs against him, but I won a nice sized pot when I raised preflop from CO, he called from blinds. He lead out on flop and I flat called and bet turn after he checked. He seems to be scared to play big pots most of the time.

[Footballguru 0]

Amongst all the times where you are facing a decision on whether or not to pursue a gutshot, I think the worst possible one is to play Ax where the gutshot is for the wheel. Three reasons:1) Since the ace is needed to complete the wheel, and most players are more likely to play hands involving an ace, it is more likely than usual that *if* you make your gutshot, you're splitting with one or more players who also have an ace.2) It is guarenteed that if you hit it, it is not the nut straight. What is more, there will be a four card straight out there, so it is *very* difficult to get a worse hand to call any bet you make (any ace or 6 makes a straight: not very disguised). Therefore not only do you have not positive implied odds, but you in fact have negative implied odds (your opponent might have 66, 67 etc)3) If you hit your ace, there is now four cards to a wheel out there, and even if you have the best hand, it's hard to feel very good about it, therefore it will be difficult to value bet (and even more difficult to get a worse hand to call).Don't forget, on top of that, it's a one card gutshot straight draw, so it carries with it the misfiortune of:a) having only 4 outs to make the straightB) since you're not drawing to broadway, it is also guarenteed to never be the nut straight if you hit it.

I agree that under most circumstances it is awful to draw here. But, your points are moot in this circumstance.1) He is my only opponent, and unless he holds AA here, no chance he has an ace.2) I am either push or folding, implied odds are irrelevant. true, 66 is in his range, but i would lean more towards 88,99,1010 based on his preflop play, and he would most likely just call on the flop if he did have a draw with a pair.3) I wont be value betting, we would be all in.4) In these circumstances, if i do hit it will give me the best hand nearly 100% of the time.

[Acid_Knight 2]

If there's such a slim chance that he has a hand QQ or better or much worse than 77, then I push this almsot every time. You're about 40% give or take against that range if you're called and I think you have a lot of FE if he does have 88-TT.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Are you saying that if I push, the villain will assume that I am pushing an AK type of hand and instacall with any overpair?The bolded part is incredibly wrong. You raised preflop and have bet the flop. If he raises and you push, he has to be SUPER worried that you have the big pair that you're representing. You're not repping AK here, you're repping KK. The villain will definitely need to be worried if you push back and he's sitting there with 88 becuase all he can beat is a bluff.As for the other post making all of the comments about the villain likely having an ace, or the 4 to a straight on the board if we improve our hand, you're a little misguided I think. We don't need to worry about whether or not we make the nut straight or not. Unless the villain has 66, what hand is he calling a preflop raise with and then raising our flop bet with that means that a 4 won't win the pot for us? Also, as far as the board getting scarier, we don't really care. We're either getting it all in on the flop or we are folding. How scary the board comes when there is no more betting left really makes no difference.

Read the description of the villain again. Tight older guy. He called our PF raise. He's raised our flop bet. I don't know how many old men you've played with, but I don't think we're pushing him off anything, given the level of his investment already. Which means we're making a commitment to drawing. I still think there are better spots than this coming in the next ten minutes. This reeks of FPS.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Read the description of the villain again. Tight older guy. He called our PF raise. He's raised our flop bet. I don't know how many old men you've played with, but I don't think we're pushing him off anything, given the level of his investment already. Which means we're making a commitment to drawing. I still think there are better spots than this coming in the next ten minutes. This reeks of FPS.

The villain has put in $125 of $350 total. He is not pot committed. He also made a very small raise on the flop which is often a raise to "find out where they're at" which would fall right into line with the villain having a hand like 88 or 99 and wanting to see if it's good. The description says "tight older guy" it doesn't say anything about whether he goes down with the ship when he gets a medium pair or not. Most good players are gonna let go of a hand like that if you push back here becuase they only beat a bluff or I guess a "semi bluff" like the hero would be making with his hand and his 10 outs.As for waiting for better spots, this isn't a tournament so we don't really need to "wait" for anything. We are looking for spots where it looks like we have an edge. If the OP thinks that the villain is gonna drop a hand like 88 or 99 here, which make up most of his range IMO, then a raise is a good play. If he doesn't think the villain will lay down that hand, then he should fold. IMO this isn't FPS at all, it's just being observant and looking to take advantage of the situation, which is what you're supposed to do.

[NoSup4U 0]

fwiw, I think villian has overpair and won't fold to a shove. Hopefully you have 10 outs.Mark

[tskillz187 0]

Small raise to $100 is where I'm at or have set raise...

I find this to be much more true in an online game where you are playing better players. In the 2-5 game that I play most people don't bet over $100 ever unless they go all in. It's just cumbersome for them to grab more than their $100 stack of $5's. I doubt this sways you at all, but I just thought I'd throw it in there.I don't think tight villains are folding here, especially when the image on hero is very aggro. Most old dudes aren't being pushed around by young aggro kids, they just make you show a winner.

[Footballguru 0]

results:I go all in after thinking for a few seconds. Villian looks disgusted. After thinking for a minute or two he says "alright, time for me to go home I guess" and calls, showing 99. I still think I played it correctly. One thing that I should have taken into account is that villian only had 100 dollar bill and 25$ green chips left, so to him it prob looked like less than his actual amount. I should have counted out my red chips for the re raise all in to make it seem like he had more than he did.

[Naismith 0]

For what it's worth, I play this hand exactly the same. I think most old, tight guys let this go. I think his "time for me to go home" line was probably literal and the only reason you got a call here.

[NoBBiR 0]

Are you saying that if I push, the villain will assume that I am pushing an AK type of hand and instacall with any overpair?The bolded part is incredibly wrong. You raised preflop and have bet the flop. If he raises and you push, he has to be SUPER worried that you have the big pair that you're representing. You're not repping AK here, you're repping KK. The villain will definitely need to be worried if you push back and he's sitting there with 88 becuase all he can beat is a bluff. As for the other post making all of the comments about the villain likely having an ace, or the 4 to a straight on the board if we improve our hand, you're a little misguided I think. We don't need to worry about whether or not we make the nut straight or not. Unless the villain has 66, what hand is he calling a preflop raise with and then raising our flop bet with that means that a 4 won't win the pot for us? Also, as far as the board getting scarier, we don't really care. We're either getting it all in on the flop or we are folding. How scary the board comes when there is no more betting left really makes no difference.

This is extremely true. I believe that most players, even bad ones, would fold here if you shoved. Most likely he is trying to figure out where he is at and if you shove he'll give it up. I mean, heck, even if he thinks you have Ax, where x is a broadway card, and he makes a hero call he still hasn't won the hand. He'd then still have to hold up in what is pretty close to a coinflop. He has absolutely no business in this hand when you shove. Most decent players will lay down 77-1010 here, especially tighty whiteys.