bad beat jackpot strategy

[owise1 0]

I play a lot on the bad beat jackpot tables at Party Poker. The criteria for a bad beat is that it has to be four 8's or better to qualify and both of your down cards must play. The bad beat gets half the jackpot and the winner of the hand gets 25% (after party takes their 30% cut) Click the link for the full criteria and mor infohttp://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.htmlWhat do you think is the best hand to play that gives you the chance to win the Jackpot? My vote is for 6,7 suited. If 8,9,10 suited comes up you have the low end of the str8 flush and most people will play j,qs from any position. As well, if an 8 or 9 come on the turn or river, you will have the winning hand against someone hold pocket 8,8 or 9,9.Second question. Which tables to play? The bad beat tables range from $2/4 to $15/30. I have played them all. Now the jackpot is getting really big, $336,000. So, i figure more people come to play these tables. Most would play at the lowest limit tables. I often play 3 or 4 tables at this level, my thinking is that it is like buying 3 or 4 lottery tickets instead of one. What are your thoughts on this?Playing a few tables at the low limit tables however can be costly when you have a lot of people playing to the river for the jackpot then cracking your a,a with two pair. Playing good, solid poker is not the same as playing to win the bad bead jackpot, perhaps these are mutually exclusive. Comments welcomeowise1p.s. If you haven't signed up for party yet p.m. me

[srblan 0]

If you really want to play for the jackpot, play the biggest limit that you can afford, you'll have to work a lot harder to overcome the rake. I haven't done any simulations as to which hands are most likely to yield a jackpot, but common sense would dictate suited connectors (maybe one and two gappers, but this is likely to cost you some money in small pots), and pairs 8 and above. The way that you are likely to make the most money, though, is not playing for the jackpot, rather, taking advantage of loose play due to the jackpot. I'm not sure if this will overcome the rake, but you really can't force a jackpot, it will generally come about in the normal course of play.

[owise1 0]

If you really want to play for the jackpot, play the biggest limit that you can afford, you'll have to work a lot harder to overcome the rake. I haven't done any simulations as to which hands are most likely to yield a jackpot, but common sense would dictate suited connectors (maybe one and two gappers, but this is likely to cost you some money in small pots), and pairs 8 and above. .

The problem with playing a one or two gap hand is that four cards need to come up on the board instead of three (for a one gap hand for example).If i have 6,8s I need the 7,9 &10. Now the 7 can't help my apponent becasue I have the 6&8. Thus at best, the 9&10 give my apponent a draw for one more card to make their higher str8 flush. For example, they could be holding the j,q and need the k or holding the q,k and need the j. So, whatever the probability of getting three cards on the board to help me AND my apponent has to be lower than getting four cards on the board. With a two gap hand the problem and probabilty is just exaccerbated. Like to have a math guy comment on this.

The way that you are likely to make the most money, though, is not playing for the jackpot, rather, taking advantage of loose play due to the jackpot. I'm not sure if this will overcome the rake, but you really can't force a jackpot, it will generally come about in the normal course of play.

Agreed. Like i said before, playing for the Jackpot and playing good solid poker are not the same, probably mutually exclusive. Owise1

[srblan 0]

If you really want to play for the jackpot, play the biggest limit that you can afford, you'll have to work a lot harder to overcome the rake. I haven't done any simulations as to which hands are most likely to yield a jackpot, but common sense would dictate suited connectors (maybe one and two gappers, but this is likely to cost you some money in small pots), and pairs 8 and above. .

The problem with playing a one or two gap hand is that four cards need to come up on the board instead of three (for a one gap hand for example).If i have 6,8s I need the 7,9 &10. Now the 7 can't help my apponent becasue I have the 6&8. Thus at best, the 9&10 give my apponent a draw for one more card to make their higher str8 flush. For example, they could be holding the j,q and need the k or holding the q,k and need the j. So, whatever the probability of getting three cards on the board to help me AND my apponent has to be lower than getting four cards on the board. With a two gap hand the problem and probabilty is just exaccerbated. Like to have a math guy comment on this.

The way that you are likely to make the most money, though, is not playing for the jackpot, rather, taking advantage of loose play due to the jackpot. I'm not sure if this will overcome the rake, but you really can't force a jackpot, it will generally come about in the normal course of play.

Agreed. Like i said before, playing for the Jackpot and playing good solid poker are not the same, probably mutually exclusive. Owise1

If you are looking for SF over SF situations, you are correct, this would be the best time to be drawing for the sucker end of the SF. However, if you are looking to beat quads, suited one-gappers would give you yet another opportunity to do so. For example, that 68s would be great on a board of 7, 9, 10 if you were up against 10-10 or 9-9. If you want every possible opportunity to win a jackpot, quads over quads, SF over SF, and SF over quads cover all the possibilities, but if you are looking to only get involved when you can win the biggest part of the jackpot, then playing suited connectors and pairs 8 and above are your best shot.

[srblan 0]

It's funny that you mention buying lottery tickets, because you'd probably have better EV buying lottery tickets than paying the rake on the jackpot tables :wink:

[owise1 0]

If you really want to play for the jackpot, play the biggest limit that you can afford, you'll have to work a lot harder to overcome the rake. I haven't done any simulations as to which hands are most likely to yield a jackpot, but common sense would dictate suited connectors (maybe one and two gappers, but this is likely to cost you some money in small pots), and pairs 8 and above. .

The problem with playing a one or two gap hand is that four cards need to come up on the board instead of three (for a one gap hand for example).If i have 6,8s I need the 7,9 &10. Now the 7 can't help my apponent becasue I have the 6&8. Thus at best, the 9&10 give my apponent a draw for one more card to make their higher str8 flush. For example, they could be holding the j,q and need the k or holding the q,k and need the j. So, whatever the probability of getting three cards on the board to help me AND my apponent has to be lower than getting four cards on the board. With a two gap hand the problem and probabilty is just exaccerbated. Like to have a math guy comment on this.

The way that you are likely to make the most money, though, is not playing for the jackpot, rather, taking advantage of loose play due to the jackpot. I'm not sure if this will overcome the rake, but you really can't force a jackpot, it will generally come about in the normal course of play.

Agreed. Like i said before, playing for the Jackpot and playing good solid poker are not the same, probably mutually exclusive. Owise1

If you are looking for SF over SF situations, you are correct, this would be the best time to be drawing for the sucker end of the SF. However, if you are looking to beat quads, suited one-gappers would give you yet another opportunity to do so. For example, that 68s would be great on a board of 7, 9, 10 if you were up against 10-10 or 9-9. If you want every possible opportunity to win a jackpot, quads over quads, SF over SF, and SF over quads cover all the possibilities, but if you are looking to only get involved when you can win the biggest part of the jackpot, then playing suited connectors and pairs 8 and above are your best shot.

Good point. It depends if you are playing for the bad beat, the winning hand or either. So, if you are playing ONLY for the bad beat, what is the best starting hand? 6,7s or 8,8 or what?

[DwayneWayne 0]

pair's 88-AAall suited connectors

[CobaltBlue 662]

Seems to me that playing for the bad beat jackpot is almost like playing the lottery.

[KDawgCometh 2]

I play on teh Bad Deat tables cause the competition is extra weak, the the small drop gets made up for with my extra BBs that I get from the bad players

[srblan 0]

I play on teh Bad Deat tables cause the competition is extra weak, the the small drop gets made up for with my extra BBs that I get from the bad players

That would be the main reason that I'd think of to justify it...

[redfish 0]

Seems to me that playing for the bad beat jackpot is almost like playing the lottery.

Yeah this just seems like such a rip off .According to PP: For every raked hand played on the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot tables a jackpot contribution of 50 cents will be collected from the pot.Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.The current jackpot is $354,000 and climbing so PP is going to make over $35,ooo when they pay out the next jackpot that's insane!!!

[owise1 0]

Seems to me that playing for the bad beat jackpot is almost like playing the lottery.

Yeah this just seems like such a rip off .According to PP: For every raked hand played on the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot tables a jackpot contribution of 50 cents will be collected from the pot.Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.The current jackpot is $354,000 and climbing so PP is going to make over $35,ooo when they pay out the next jackpot that's insane!!!

As usual, we are getting a little off topic. I know it is a rip off that Party takes 10%. I know it is like a lottery. I know more fish play there. However, once again the question is, what are the best cards to play to Win the Jackpot? (IE the losing hand) or if you are going for either the bad beat (50% after party takes there cut etc...) OR the winning hand. One previous post thinks any suited connectors or pairs 8,8 or higher. However, consider that 2,3 can only lost to a higher straight flush. Where as 8,8 can lose to a higher quad or a straight flush. So, If 25% is what you are going for IE if the winning hand is good enough for you (it is for me, now it is over $383000 so 25% is over $67000) why would you play 2,3s ?I need someone to research this on the net or some brilliant math people to show me the calculations.owise1

[wrto4556 0]

The best strategy is to play every hand. You have to be in the hand to get paid.

[srblan 0]

Seems to me that playing for the bad beat jackpot is almost like playing the lottery.

Yeah this just seems like such a rip off .According to PP: For every raked hand played on the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot tables a jackpot contribution of 50 cents will be collected from the pot.Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.The current jackpot is $354,000 and climbing so PP is going to make over $35,ooo when they pay out the next jackpot that's insane!!!

As usual, we are getting a little off topic. I know it is a rip off that Party takes 10%. I know it is like a lottery. I know more fish play there. However, once again the question is, what are the best cards to play to Win the Jackpot? (IE the losing hand) or if you are going for either the bad beat (50% after party takes there cut etc...) OR the winning hand. One previous post thinks any suited connectors or pairs 8,8 or higher. However, consider that 2,3 can only lost to a higher straight flush. Where as 8,8 can lose to a higher quad or a straight flush. So, If 25% is what you are going for IE if the winning hand is good enough for you (it is for me, now it is over $383000 so 25% is over $67000) why would you play 2,3s ?I need someone to research this on the net or some brilliant math people to show me the calculations.owise1

I'm trying to figure out the best way to figure this out using a simulation. It will probably require writing some code, which I might not have time to do until the weekend. Hopefully I can come up with a decent answer shortly.

[CobaltBlue 662]

When you figure out the best bad beat hand...what good does it do?I mean, maybe it'll improve your chances from one in 10,000,000 to one in 5,000,000...but is that really very significant? Seems that you're likely to lose more money playing those hands while chasing the jackpot.

[owise1 0]

Well, Srblan, my hat's off to you and thanks in advance for taking up this challenge/cause. I am playing two tables now and the jackpot is over $421,000. I think this is the biggest one ever! Just got suited 5,6 got to go. Thanks again, owise1

[UglyJimStudly 0]

Yeah this just seems like such a rip off .According to PP: For every raked hand played on the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot tables a jackpot contribution of 50 cents will be collected from the pot.Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.

10% is crazy. My local casino has a bad beat jackpot, they take a 3% or so fee. And they actually incur expenses collecting and counting the chips.So far as the main topic goes, it looks to me like none of the possible bad beat hands are going to gain any EV from the jackpot itself until it gets really high. ISTR there was an article in "Canadian Poker Player" a few months back where a math prof analyzed bad beat jackpots to work out how high they had to get to be worth playing for the jackpot, but I don't recall what the qualifying hands were in his example. I think he might have looked at the PokerStars example specifically, so if anybody has back issues it might be worth digging up the articles to check.

[dms26 3]

Well, Srblan, my hat's off to you and thanks in advance for taking up this challenge/cause. I am playing two tables now and the jackpot is over $421,000. I think this is the biggest one ever! Just got suited 5,6 got to go. Thanks again, owise1

its such a longshot it doesn't really matter what is the best possibility, if you do come up with some calculation I'd be surprised if 1 hand was much better than any other. Getting quads or better is ridiculous odds as it is. A better question would be, is the added rake for the jackpot worth it to play horrible players who call down with anything to go for the jackpot?

[DKE_XP120 0]

The best strategy is to play every hand. You have to be in the hand to get paid.

I think you just need to be delt in....I played at them once, the play is absurd, people play anything soooooted from any position, alot of extra bets floating around. out of my bankroll though, ill be there eventually

[owise1 0]

Yeah this just seems like such a rip off .According to PP: For every raked hand played on the Progressive Bad Beat Jackpot tables a jackpot contribution of 50 cents will be collected from the pot.Every time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.

10% is crazy. My local casino has a bad beat jackpot, they take a 3% or so fee. And they actually incur expenses collecting and counting the chips.So far as the main topic goes, it looks to me like none of the possible bad beat hands are going to gain any EV from the jackpot itself until it gets really high. ISTR there was an article in "Canadian Poker Player" a few months back where a math prof analyzed bad beat jackpots to work out how high they had to get to be worth playing for the jackpot, but I don't recall what the qualifying hands were in his example. I think he might have looked at the PokerStars example specifically, so if anybody has back issues it might be worth digging up the articles to check.

Do you know which issue?If anybody has it, please post it or the link to it. Thanks in advance, Owise1

[owise1 0]

The best strategy is to play every hand. You have to be in the hand to get paid.

I think you just need to be delt in....I played at them once, the play is absurd, people play anything soooooted from any position, alot of extra bets floating around. out of my bankroll though, ill be there eventually

That's correct. You just need to be dealt cards, you don't have to play every hand. The remaining players at the table, besides the winner of the hand and the bad beat, get a cut. Right now with the jackpot over $425,000, the remaining player would get over $9300 (based on a full table, ie, 8 other players.)Fund distributionEvery time the jackpot is hit, 70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee. Of the distributed amount, 50% will go to the loser of the hand (the Bad Beat), 25% to the winner and 25% will be split between the other seated players who actively participated in the hand (any player sitting out will not receive a portion of the jackpot).Click the link for more complete info:http://partypoker.com/news/events/jackpot_..._rules.html#bbjAnd if you start playing these tables now and hit the jackpot, please remember me owise1

[elkang 0]

Just thought I would bump this back up... since owise1 actually won the Bad Beat Jackpot!I guess you didn't really need a strategy! Congratulations on the losing/winning hand again.