I Play Big Pots

[dgostate8 0]

all in

[Acid_Knight 2]

all in

contribute something constructive

[dms26 3]

Are you assuming your FE is nearly 0?

[dgostate8 0]

i'm answering your question concerning Qh on the turn. at that point you have no choice but to get it all in, even if he has TdJd.

[dms26 3]

This was the only time I saw him underbet the pot. In 3 previous hands he played from the button like this, he c-bet about 3/4 to the full pot twice (one being the QJ hand when he flopped top pair) and he checked behind and folded to a turn bet on the third.

why not just flat call his small flop bet then? maybe you also get a few people chasing behind you, and your raise isn't going to scare off AX or KXd.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Are you assuming your FE is nearly 0?

Pretty close to it becuase I couldn't see the overpairs playing like that. If he had that hand, I was sure he'd fold it. The only hand that played like this that I thought I might have any FE over was 89 and maybe, MAYBE 55 since they're so close on the spectrum of hands here. I really thought he'd make a crying call with any set here and I'm obviously getting instacalled by the straight and the bigger draws.

[Acid_Knight 2]

why not just flat call his small flop bet then? maybe you also get a few people chasing behind you, and your raise isn't going to scare off AX or KXd.

1. There are 2 people in between us and I'd hate to get squeezed or have to deal with 2 or 3 opponents on the turn.2. My hand is literally too big not to raise3. I didn't have enough information about his hand to know he was super strong at this point. That happened after he 3-bet me.4. If I flat called and there was a bigger flush draw in one of the other opponents' hands, then it'd encourage them to play the pot instead of folding. I really think that any sane player is folding Ax or Kx of diamonds after I raise to $300 becuase the possibility of them getting squeezed by the orginal preflop raiser is too great.

[dgostate8 0]

i'm still stickin' with the set, 88 in his hand. when do we find out what this guy has?

[dms26 3]

i'm still stickin' with the set, 88 in his hand. when do we find out what this guy has?

when everyone is done discussing it

[tskillz187 0]

If overpairs aren't in his range it's an extremely tough push. I don't regularly play in games where people will fold big overpairs in spots like this which is a good reason for playing weaksauce suited. If you can't stack Villain with an overpair I wouldn't call PF in the first place.Maybe I'm reading you incorrectly and he doesn't have overpair because of how he played the hand, which would be odd (small flop then raise c/r). I'm not good (bad, however you look at it) enough to call a raise with Q5dd hit bottom pair with flush draw and then not get my chips in. But the people I play against definitely have all overpairs in their range. Basically if you were willing to gamble preflop with your call I think you wanted to play a big pot when you hit a tricky flop, here's your flop, and your chance to play a big pot. And your advertising!

[linkwood 0]

Very interesting hand. My first reaction was to ship it in there but after thinking it through some more I'm not so sure. On my more conservative days I might just dump it if i really thought my opponent knew what he was doing. His play is so strange, it only makes sense for a move, either a really weird bluff, or a really strong made hand, more than one pair or a huge draw. If its a strong hand, the only real strong hands we want him to turn over are two pair. We don't have much fold equity against his likely hands that we're beating, the big draws, so if he has those we're just gambling. Yeah, the more I think about it the more I'm thinking folding is the best option. If he outplayed you then nh sir. I just can't picture a hand that would play like this that is folding to our push (outside of a weirdly played overpair or bluff), and if this is the case we're racing, at best.

[Zach6668 513]

Let me try and break this down. Could be way off, but I feel slightly ambitious.1) Overpairs: AcAh,AcAs,AhAs,QQ-TT - 49.167%2) Overpair + big diamond: AdAs,AdAc,AdAh,KdKs,KdKc,KdKh - 45.808%3) Big draws: JdTd,Td7d,Jd7d,AdKd,Ad7d,Ad6d - 53.081%4) Made straight (incl straight+fd): 67o,67s - 38.217%5) Sets: 99-88,55 - 29.978%6) Two Pairs: 98s,98o - 48.620%I'm assuming the only the only thing we have a chance of folding, would be the first and second categories. Anyone disagree here? I'd say also maybe an 80% chance that our shove folds group 1, and say a 67% chance that our shove fold the second group.I think the big draws call every time, since the pot odds are hue, and he could possibly play it like this in order to get as much in as possible on the flop.Made straights, will obviously call.I can't imagine sets ever folding here, as they never far too bad.Finally, I'll assume a 2 pair hand that he's played this far, will call off for the rest.If we put this all together:This is his range: AcAd,AcAs,KcKd,KcKs,QcQd,JcJd,99-88,55,AdKd,Ad7d,Ad6d,JdTd,Jd7d,Td7d,98s,76s,98o,76oNotice I include 1 out of every 3 combinations of KdKx to account for the fact that I think he folds 2/3 of the time, and I've included only 4 out of the 18 cominations of group 2 hands (AA,KK no diamond, and QQ, JJ) in order to account for the 80% time that I feel he folds those.So, our equity when called is: 42.331%.

42,570  games	 0.005 secs	 8,514,000  games/secBoard: 5c 8d 9dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	57.669%	  57.30% 	00.37% 			 24394 		  155.50   { AcAd, AcAs, KcKd, KcKs, QcQd, JcJd, 99-88, 55, AdKd, Ad7d, Ad6d, JdTd, Jd7d, Td7d, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o }Hand 1: 	42.331%	  41.97% 	00.37% 			 17865 		  155.50   { Qd5d }

Our effective odds of the shove:After his reraise, there's $1400 in the pot. We've got $1445 behind according to the OP. If we shove, it means he'd be calling $945 more, making the effective pot $2395, and we're shoving $1445 into that.This means our equity when called needs to be ($1445/$3840) 37.63%So... that's +EV...And we also win what's in the pot x% of the time that he folds his overpair hands. I don't think that makes up a ton of his range, mind you.I've lost my ambition to completely finish this, and I also don't have a great grip on complicated EV calculations, but nonetheless, I think I've proven that shoving is +EV.At least it is given the assumptions I've made.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Zach,That was very impressive, but could you retype that out again, only this time in Spanish?Much love,-AK

[Zach6668 513]

Zach,That was very impressive, but could you retype that out again, only this time in Spanish?Much love,-AK

I'm Canadian...I could do French, if you wanted?

[Webslinger516 0]

I've lost my ambition to completely finish this, and I also don't have a great grip on complicated EV calculations, but nonetheless, I think I've proven that shoving is +EV.At least it is given the assumptions I've made.

Very impressive thought process. I think given the discussions thus far, I would say pushing all-in > folding > flat-calling.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I'm Canadian...I could do French, if you wanted?

I typed out French first, realized you were Canadian and then wanted to make sure you were challenged.

[linkwood 0]

You silly math people. Looking at it that way, I think I agree that pushing is better than folding. Thanks for that Zach.

[Acid_Knight 2]

You silly math people. Looking at it that way, I think I agree that pushing is better than folding. Thanks for that Zach.

I'm gonna override Zach's very good mathematical analysis becuase I think that too many hands are included. I think he has an overpair here a very small portion of the time, if it all and a big diamond draw an equally small portion of the time since it is a bad play to reopen the betting (with or without position) and commit yourself ot the hand with a big naked flush draw when so many bets are going back and forth. After thinking about everything, the only 3 hands that I think are calling a push and playing like this are JTdd, a set and the straight.I think (irregardless of the villain's hand) that folding>pushing>calling. I really didn't have enough time during the hand itself to come to these conclusions.I obviously pushed.

[Zach6668 513]

I'm gonna override Zach's very good mathematical analysis becuase I think that too many hands are included. I think he has an overpair here a very small portion of the time, if it all and a big diamond draw an equally small portion of the time since it is a bad play to reopen the betting (with or without position) and commit yourself ot the hand with a big naked flush draw when so many bets are going back and forth. After thinking about everything, the only 3 hands that I think are calling a push and playing like this are JTdd, a set and the straight.I think (irregardless of the villain's hand) that folding>pushing>calling. I really didn't have enough time during the hand itself to come to these conclusions.I obviously pushed.

37,620  games	 0.005 secs	 7,524,000  games/secBoard: 9d 8d 5cDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	58.490%	  58.14% 	00.35% 			 21871 		  133.00   { 99-88, 55, AdKd, Ad7d, Ad6d, JdTd, Jd7d, Td7d, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o }Hand 1: 	41.510%	  41.16% 	00.35% 			 15483 		  133.00   { Qd5d }

No overpairs even included.We only need 37% equity to breakeven, effectively. Assuming he never folds. If he does fold, then that's even better for us.

[Zach6668 513]

To expand upon that...

33,660  games	 0.005 secs	 6,732,000  games/secBoard: 5c 9d 8dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	59.522%	  59.18% 	00.34% 			 19920 		  115.00   { 99-88, 55, JdTd, Td7d, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o }Hand 1: 	40.478%	  40.14% 	00.34% 			 13510 		  115.00   { Qd5d }

Take out the big diamond draws, even the flush draw + gutshot hands.We're still >40%.

[Acid_Knight 2]

No overpairs even included.We only need 37% equity to breakeven, effectively. Assuming he never folds. If he does fold, then that's even better for us.

If you eliminate the overpairs, he's never folding the rest of his range after putting in that many chips.

[Zach6668 513]

If you eliminate the overpairs, he's never folding the rest of his range after putting in that many chips.

Right, and we're still getting the best of it.

[dms26 3]

shoving is more fun than folding.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Look ****ers, I'm supposed to be the nit.The final pot is the 3 other players' dead ~180 plus Acid Knight's stack twice for 180 + 1800 x 2 = $3780. He has to invest $1345. break even win % = $1445/$3780 = 38.2%

Board: 5c 8d 9dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 64.291%  63.96% 00.33% 			14564 	  75.00   { 99-88, 55, 76s, 76o }Hand 1: 35.709%  35.38% 00.33% 			 8056 	  75.00   { Qd5d }

Folding is right out. Surely the villain occasionally has something worse than these hands.

[Zach6668 513]

Look ****ers, I'm supposed to be the nit.The final pot is the 3 other players' dead ~180 plus Acid Knight's stack twice for 180 + 1800 x 2 = $3780. He has to invest $1345. break even win % = $1345/$3780 = 35.6%

Board: 5c 8d 9dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 64.291%  63.96% 00.33% 			14564 	  75.00   { 99-88, 55, 76s, 76o }Hand 1: 35.709%  35.38% 00.33% 			 8056 	  75.00   { Qd5d }

Folding is right out.

I had it as $1445/$3780... but I don't feel like going over it again, lol.Either way... SHOVEL!