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lead changes...>WHAT A HANDPokerStars Game #10279479139: Tournament #51769630, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (12500/25000) - 2007/06/05 - 03:35:48 (ET)Table '51769630 6' 9-max Seat #4 is the buttonSeat 4: Zimmy41 (580090 in chips) Seat 6: g0lfa (1347910 in chips) Zimmy41: posts the ante 1250g0lfa: posts the ante 1250Zimmy41: posts small blind 12500g0lfa: posts big blind 25000*** HOLE CARDS ***Zimmy41: raises 39000 to 64000g0lfa: raises 761000 to 825000Zimmy41: calls 514840 and is all-in*** FLOP *** [2d Th 5s]*** TURN *** [2d Th 5s] [Js]*** RIVER *** [2d Th 5s Js] [2s]*** SHOW DOWN ***g0lfa: shows [Jc Kc] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)Zimmy41: shows [As Ts] (a flush, Ace high)Zimmy41 collected 1160180 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 1160180 | Rake 0 Board [2d Th 5s Js 2s]Seat 4: Zimmy41 (button) (small blind) showed [As Ts] and won (1160180) with a flush, Ace highSeat 6: g0lfa (big blind) showed [Jc Kc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Deuces

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I know we're 5-handed, but still an UTG raise means something. Then the all-in overbet screams AKo. The kicker here is that Joao is not a donk -- AKs is the bottom of his range. You're going to see AA/KK here such a high percentage of the time. So when he pushes it's a clear fold. He's not some random fishie falling in love with AQ. Some pros swear by the adage that being the 3rd person in the pot with AK is a mistake... taking the 4th action with 2 players all-in... sooted or not, it's not a good call. 2:1 odds are meaningless if you're a 5:1 dog. The absolute only reason this is even slightly a call is because he's CL with a dominant lead over both players. I respect your opinion Actuary so I'd love to hear more. But when I remove my fandom for FCPers from the equation, I don't see how this is +EV in the long run. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.100% 14.03% 06.07% 179992176 77899224.00 { AKs }Hand 1: 31.183% 30.12% 01.06% 386425356 13663782.00 { TT+, AJs+ }Hand 2: 48.716% 42.85% 05.87% 549785268 75259938.00 { KK+, AKs }

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g0lfa has good shark scope stats.maybe the chop woulda been a decent idea to at least "THink about"
His OPR isn't too flash. Over 750 odd tourn's he has cashed for about 30k but is running at -17%. Obv this will change soonb though.
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I know we're 5-handed, but still an UTG raise means something. Then the all-in overbet screams AKo. The kicker here is that Joao is not a donk -- AKs is the bottom of his range. You're going to see AA/KK here such a high percentage of the time. So when he pushes it's a clear fold. He's not some random fishie falling in love with AQ. Some pros swear by the adage that being the 3rd person in the pot with AK is a mistake... taking the 4th action with 2 players all-in... sooted or not, it's not a good call. 2:1 odds are meaningless if you're a 5:1 dog. The absolute only reason this is even slightly a call is because he's CL with a dominant lead over both players. I respect your opinion Actuary so I'd love to hear more. But when I remove my fandom for FCPers from the equation, I don't see how this is +EV in the long run. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.100% 14.03% 06.07% 179992176 77899224.00 { AKs }Hand 1: 31.183% 30.12% 01.06% 386425356 13663782.00 { TT+, AJs+ }Hand 2: 48.716% 42.85% 05.87% 549785268 75259938.00 { KK+, AKs }
I never put Joao on that tight of a range. - nor shoudl it be..should it?give him QQ and JJ too at least?( my opinon in MTTS is not to be respected, but thanks!)
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I know we're 5-handed, but still an UTG raise means something. Then the all-in overbet screams AKo. The kicker here is that Joao is not a donk -- AKs is the bottom of his range. You're going to see AA/KK here such a high percentage of the time. So when he pushes it's a clear fold. He's not some random fishie falling in love with AQ. Some pros swear by the adage that being the 3rd person in the pot with AK is a mistake... taking the 4th action with 2 players all-in... sooted or not, it's not a good call. 2:1 odds are meaningless if you're a 5:1 dog. The absolute only reason this is even slightly a call is because he's CL with a dominant lead over both players. I respect your opinion Actuary so I'd love to hear more. But when I remove my fandom for FCPers from the equation, I don't see how this is +EV in the long run. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.100% 14.03% 06.07% 179992176 77899224.00 { AKs }Hand 1: 31.183% 30.12% 01.06% 386425356 13663782.00 { TT+, AJs+ }Hand 2: 48.716% 42.85% 05.87% 549785268 75259938.00 { KK+, AKs }
I agree in the sense that I don't think it's a def call all the time. I think it has to be read dependent to some extent. You seem to be of the opinion that Joao is a really good player, I personally know nothing of him and would have prob set his range at a default type level which would be larger than the range you have given. I would also allow some chance that he is trying to isolate with his repush. Zimm may have seen something that made him widen up his range, factor in that he is def going for the win and the case for a call can be made imho.
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Is Zimmer in Vegas right now??anyone?
No, he's at home emptying his own catheter bag.
{ KK+, AKs }
Way too tight.
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any chance on a chop ? or Z wants it all ..
Zim refused the 3rd guy, these two haven't spoken to the best of my knowledge.
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Check out Joao M.'s results on Stars. Just watching the FT, he was not getting out of line at all and if Zimmy thought otherwise I'd love to hear the reasoning behind. I don't think winning players cold call re-raise all-in overbets with JJ -- and QQ would be borderline -- so that's why I put Joao's range what it was.

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equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 27.920% 19.43% 08.49% 261225576 114217138.50 { AsKs }Hand 1: 31.109% 27.66% 03.45% 371987370 46343317.50 { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }Hand 2: 40.971% 34.07% 06.90% 458085123 92851149.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }Better?

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Sick :(PokerStars Game #10279644783: Tournament #51769630, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVI (15000/30000) - 2007/06/05 - 04:02:50 (ET)Table '51769630 6' 9-max Seat #6 is the buttonSeat 4: Zimmy41 (1275930 in chips) Seat 6: g0lfa (652070 in chips) Zimmy41: posts the ante 1500g0lfa: posts the ante 1500g0lfa: posts small blind 15000Zimmy41: posts big blind 30000*** HOLE CARDS ***g0lfa: raises 45000 to 75000Zimmy41: raises 115000 to 190000g0lfa: calls 115000*** FLOP *** [3d 9d 7s]Zimmy41: bets 225000g0lfa: raises 235570 to 460570 and is all-inZimmy41: calls 235570*** TURN *** [3d 9d 7s] [2d]*** RIVER *** [3d 9d 7s 2d] [Kc]*** SHOW DOWN ***Zimmy41: shows [Tc Ts] (a pair of Tens)g0lfa: shows [2h 2s] (three of a kind, Deuces)g0lfa collected 1304140 from potZimmy41 said, "Are you serious man"*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 1304140 | Rake 0 Board [3d 9d 7s 2d Kc]Seat 4: Zimmy41 (big blind) showed [Tc Ts] and lost with a pair of TensSeat 6: g0lfa (button) (small blind) showed [2h 2s] and won (1304140) with three of a kind, Deuces

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