SpiderGuard

Might be worth betting on Rivera now...I tend to think there's very few bets that aren't +EV at those odds. I'm still kicking myself for being too lazy to bet on Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop............................................... I'm not denying that GSP wants a rematch with Serra. But with Hughes saying he only has a couple more fights in him, I have to think that his career is literally over if he doesn't win this fight. Add to that his legitimate hatred of Matt Serra and what Serra calls the dumb high school jock pride, I would have to think Hughes wants it more.But like I've said, this is a

I think the heart is going to be the deciding factor in this one - I really don't think St. Pierre is going to want this as badly as Hughes does. Never underestimate how much hating to lose can motivate someone. John McEnroe didn't care so much about winning as he hated losing. Hughes is in the same boat there I think. Either way it's going to be a great fight...really too close to call, which is why I'm sticking with betting the underdog.Forrest is far more talented than he gets credit for...I don't see it either, but he must be to beat Shogun and to hang with Tito as well as he did. Either t

By "regular" customers I meant consistent customers - those who came in frequently, not "regular" as in not rich.Most of the regulars had a decent amount of money - some bragged, some didn't, but you can figure it out by how much they spend in the golf store, what kind of car they drive, and what golf courses they play.

It does two things:1) It makes them not have fun and leave the table.2) It makes them come to internet poker forums so they learn how to play.My trip to FCP was started by me improperly calling with a flush draw and some guy berating me about not knowing what pot odds where. Well I wanted to know what they were after that, and came to a poker forum to learn. Now look at me - I'm a losing player at a variety of games, not just NLHE~!!!

Cue Caddyshack: "Why don't you mow my lawn?"

The check's in the mail The best part is that Chuck has that look on his face normally - when Rampage knocked him out it was sooooo much funnier~!

I was super unclear in that last post...which is why I'm avoiding doing my real writing work to talk MMA on a poker message board I meant to say I'd definitely bet Grove, especially because I think he'll be the betting line underdog against Rivera. I think Dana wants to protect Grove as much as he can, and Rivera has not looked impressive since beating Loiseau way back in the day.(The more I think about it, the more I think Kendall Grove will be the betting favorite...I don't know...I wish I knew more about how the MMA lines start and how they change) Brock's MMA debut:http://media.putfile.co

I used to be amazed when I worked in a golf store how the middle class folks would come in and pay full price for a set of clubs without thinking twice, and how the rich guys would spend 10 minute negotiating for a buck or two off of a box of golf balls.I asked one of the regular customers about it once, and he said you don't get to be wealthy by spending money. Didn't seem worth it to me. I'd rather spend money on things I enjoy and the people I care about than try to die with more money than anyone else.And if you like talk radio, check out Ron and Fez on XM radio. It takes a week to sort of

Yeah, but they're going to make us Americans pay for it :(I think the theory is that they can get away with weak cards for the UK PPVs because there's not much competition for the sports entertainment dollar. I know the WWE does basically the same thing, although I would imagine the production costs go way up.Am I the only one really excited about Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar scheduled for UFC 81? Teach me how to pwn please, thanks Silva-Liddell is going to be a great fight - hopefully it lasts a couple rounds. Two guys wildly swinging at each other, trying to knock each other's heads off...gon

I don't take notes as often as I should, but I like to add river behavior - will they fold on the river or do they like to call and lose?Really helps some of those decisions.

Why are they doing another PPV so soon after? I totally agree on there being a TON of money in the Grove vs. Rivera fight, especially if Jorge is the betting favorite like I think he will be.Who are the people that gamble on PPVs - "smart" internet fans, or Vegas action junkies?

I think I probably underrated BJ, but I classify Hughes as a better grappler than BJ kind of like I'd classify Fedor as a better grappler than Big Nog. Nog has far better technical grappling, but he can't submit Fedor. I'd put Hughes and BJ in the same world - Hughes takes him down, gets top position, and is too tough to be submitted. (Again, ignoring the first fight where Hughes slipped).While BJ's better than Danzig, Matt Hughes is FAR more skilled than Tommy Spears. I think Hughes outpoints BJ 9/10 times. Definitely - regular access to Dana White doesn't hurt either I forget if it was dur

I would take McDonald off that list - tapping out a kickboxer doesn't really impress me. I think the reason Sokoudjou is a huge favorite here is because of the recent fights. Not being able to finish any of these guys doesn't impress me at all. Everyone else on the planet has been able to finish off Vernon White, why couldn't Machida? Meanwhile, Sokoudjou is training with Henderson and Team Quest, and finished his last two fights against top level competition decisively. And I still fall back on "Dana doesn't put him in the ring against Machida if he thinks Machida has a chance." QFT on bo

If you all don't subscribe to the Wrestling Observer, you should. There's a bunch of pro wrestling analysis you won't care about, but no one understands MMA and the business better than Dave Meltzer.

Dana also invested a lot of time and energy in making Chuck the face of the UFC. For a while Chuck was the one doing all the interviews and media appearances, and still is apparently (he was on Dennis Miller's horrible horrible show after the WEC show last week). Dana has to be kicking himself that he couldn't get this fight booked a year ago when he originally tried...probably cost him 100,000 buys or so. Reminds me of Belfort vs. Ortiz from a few years ago. I disagree on the MMath - I think Hughes is a better fighter than BJ. I don't remember their first fight too well, but I seem to remembe

Fish will bet for Chuck - internet smarks will bet for Silva. The fish are right, but they don't know why.I'm not a baller like JC, but I'm going to put my money on Liddell and Sokoudjou.

Spider's Late Night MMA Picks:Matt Hughes vs George St-Pierre - This fight's too close to call, so I like the bet on Hughes as a heavy favorite. St. Pierre killed Hughes dead in their last fight, but he was having the fight of his life and Hughes was having the worst fight of his life. Last Fights: St. Pierre looked great against Josh Koscheck, but I don't think he would win a rematch. Koscheck was absolutely shocked that someone would try to take him down, and probably hasn't spent more than ten minutes training on his takedown defense in a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng time. Hughes beat a very much un

To go along with this post, EV has a very specific meaning. Your EV when you get AIPF with AA vs. KK is ~ 80% of the pot. Your EV isn't "winning" or "losing," it's the result of a specific calculation.

I feel like the cautionary tale is a big part of the story that a lot of young folks are missing. They just see the glamorous fun side of poker rather than the guys who are trying to get away from it as quickly as possible.

I had the same thing last night - the good news is that the entire table starting attacking him which kept the fish there, and really loosened the table up because everyone wanted to beat this guy. Insanely irritating.And I'm amazed at so-called adults who can't control themselves online. I understand the Phil Hellmuth tirade far more than I understand typing shit in to a chat box to berate someone's play. There have been plenty of times when I'm monkey-tilted by a bad beat and yell something in displeasure - but to actually type something in the chat box shows a combination of insecurity and

They can find me at Full Tilt, $0.25/0.50, Stud8.That's Full Tilt.$0.25/0.50Stud8

So yeah - I'm not really super-experienced at Stud8, but I'm trying to log as many hands as possible lately. With that disclaimer - I think that this is a solid play, especially against someone you know is capable of laying down a hand. I had this situation last night in a pure Stud8 game with a player on my left who was able to laydown open Aces a couple times when he saw resistance from players with inferior boards. I used this sort of move a couple times to get him out of the way so I could play against the guy who seemed to only have a weak high with no low redraw.It worked - but I think i

I don't get why people care about this. You are free to call whoever you want the world champion of poker - no one's going to stop you. The idea of one tournament winner being declared the best isn't necessarily the most logical thing in the world anyway - I doubt many people would assert that Freddy Deeb was the best poker player in the world last year.

This seems to be the crux of the whole argument right here. I would be surprised if a bot could beat Phil Ivey, but I wouldn't be surprised if a bot could beat your average $5/$10 player.I'm also not sure why people are saying bots can't mix up their play. Don't think of them as only having the "intelligence" to bet with top pair or better, and fold with top pair or worse. There's no reason they can't be programmed to bet/raise 60% of the time in a situation, and check/call the other 40%. There's also no reason these percentages can't be changed based on how you play.Who do you think catches o

Don't look at them as regular gyms - you're paying for some of the best trainers in the world to teach you. They're great for someone who wants to be competitive in MMA. I'm insanely jealous of JC right now.(Disclaimer: I pay FAR less for my MMA gym membership, but I've taken a handful of lessons at Legends and it's just an incredible experience. If I had that kind of money or wanted to fight even semi-professionally it would absolutely be worth it.)