SpiderGuard

Unfortunately none at all...Gonzaga's a black belt in BJJ (and I thought I remembered reading that he was a world champion or something, but I can't find it now), and is probably perfectly happy to stand up here. That being said, Werdum won the original fight between the two back in 2003, and 6 of his 9 wins come by submission (including Aleksander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Roman Zentsov). I don't want to talk you out of it, but I personally wouldn't do it.Edit: These appear to be the links to the three rounds of the original Werdum/Gonzaga fight. Watch 'em while you can.http://www.yo

The card (taken from Wikipedia) with odds (taken from Bodog):Main Card * Lightweight championship bout: B.J. Penn (-285) vs. Joe Stevenson (+225) * Heavyweight bout: (-280) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. (+220) Fabricio Werdum * Welterweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jess Liaudin * Light Heavyweight bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Jason Lambert * Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove (-500) vs. Jorge Rivera (+300) Preliminary Card * Heavyweight bout: Colin Robinson vs. Antoni Hardonk * Welterweight bout: Paul Taylor vs. Paul Kelly * Light Heavyweight bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Lee * Li

Hand #47183707227 Card Stud *High-Low* ($0.25/$0.50), Ante $0.05*3rd Street* - (1.40 SB)Salt Lick Kitty: xx xx Qd___raisespando73: xx xx 8s___foldsSpiderGuard9: 4c 2d 5c___*completes*___calls - 3 kinda connected low cards, two of 'em suited, all lower than the 6. I feel good about this.Tsien: xx xx 9d___foldstheGrooouuuch: xx xx Kh___foldsTDOGG9938: xx xx Qs___calls___callsgattor: xx xx 6d___calls___calls*4th Street* - (9.40 SB)Salt Lick Kitty: xx xx Qd Ad___*bets*___callsSpiderGuard9: 4c 2d 5c 8h___raises___calls I have the best 8 draw here, let's

That's often my rationale for trying to make someone call 2 bets even when I know I'm behind - if I can push out a better low draw then I figure I stand to profit, even if I'm getting my money in badly now. Not sure if it's good rationale or not, but it's mine dammit

I want to see Serra and Hughes tomorrow...I wish there was a way to do that fight before GSP vs. Serra (which I have no real desire to see...).Anyone ready to start handicapping UFC 80? And does anyone think the mods would care if I started a new thread for that? I'd hate to kill the good discussion we're having in this one, but we're about two weeks away from the next show and it's getting to be time to start getting the bets in line.

Absolutely gross call. How does he not have an Ace there?Great post.

God bless the internet - where else do you get advice on how to pick up girls from Boners Galore.

I don't see him beating GSP again, but I won't be able to shake it out of my head that he'll be able to submit GSP. I'm a huge Serra fan, and want him to retain and prove to the world that he's legitimately one of the best MMArtists in the world. Unfortunately I don't think it'll happen, but I'll put a bet down on him anyway because I'm not smart

I'm still happy with the Sokoudjou bet - I think he should have won that fight. Not that Machida didn't kill him dead in completely convincing fashion, but it was almost 100% mental, not physical. Especially getting him as a slight dog, I'm happy with the bet. Betting on Hughes wasn't my finest hour though...Lebowski and Steve definitely got me on that one. Hopefully they'll be able to talk me off the ledge of betting on Serra rather than St. Pierre next time...especially with the odds I'm sure I'll get, I don't think I'll be able to avoid it.

I'm struggling to remember a fight where someone tried to take Arlovski down...looking at his record I can see a couple fights that may have gone like that, but I honestly don't remember them. What does his takedown defense look like? Cro Cop on the other hand is dangerous because his lateral movement is so good. Bull-rushing him hasn't generally worked in the past (other than Gabriel Gonzaga). I feel like Lesnar has kinda short, stubby arms, bad for submissions. Plus he's freakishly strong. We just don't know much about him because of how bad his first opponent was.A couple random thoughts: M

Griff is heads up~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

On the rail...TID~!!

I haven't read any of the posts in this thread, but I think that if he can do it he'll probably take the full 12 months.

Oh yes I do ;)Interesting posts from all - please keep 'em coming.

The fight between Griffin and Rampage won't take place until the entire show airs, and that's the problem. Rampage is out of action for a while now.

Interesting read. One thing we both forgot about in our breakdowns of the future is that Mac Danzig is going to drop to 155. Could be potentially interesting.Doing Griffin vs. Rampage after the next season of TUF is potentially a horrible mistake on the UFC's part. Rampage is their most marketable champion and he's not going to be in action for many many moons.Re: Lesnar vs. Mir, I have a few thoughts. - Rumor is that Lesnar tried to negotiate for a title fight as his UFC debut. Dana said no to that obviously. Lesnar would only settle for a top opponent. They came up with Mir. - If you're Broc

No - I play at Hustler in California.

The benefit of FT is that you get fractional points - PS you don't. For microdonks like me that's better.

Let me add to JC's point - quite often a fight between two good ground guys can be insanely boring, especially at the higher weight classes. Werdum vs. Gonzaga has the potential to be a great match, or a real snoozefest.I didn't know Werdum beat Gonzaga in 2003 by TKO (strikes). Interesting...I wouldn't mind seeing Werdum become a contender.

Thanks for the thoughts - definitely interested in thoughts from other folks. I'll give micro Limit O8 a try tonight. Never really played Limit O8, so it'll be an experience

That's what I've found...I used to drop a lot of mobnies with two low pair. I making progress toward fixing that leak, helped by multitabling requiring me to play much tighter than I used to. My thought at the time is that he sucked out and hit his flush. I'm fairly confident that my "straight" was ahead of him on 6th, hence the horribly poor bet/call line. Results for anyone interested: Villain hit the ace for the wheel on the river...I was betting in to a monster draw here that ALMOST missed. Villain started off with 2345 all spades...d'oh.

5th street was perfect for you, but also really bad for you.You caught the second best card you possibly could have. But at the same time not only did everyone else catch low cards, they caught low cards that you need...didn't see that the first time.I dunno - I still think you have to bet 5th street. You caught the card you were hoping for, go with it. I may be an aggro-donk, but I tend to lean toward bet > check > call in these situations. At least in my experience, taking control of the betting lets me make easier decisions on 6th and 7th.

Definitely someday - but Wandy needs a couple wins first. They did a great job of building the storyline of basically "Loser Leaves Town" but they both looked so good that Wandy still has a career in the UFC. They need to give him a couple rehab fights and redo the fight in 2009. Evans needs a win over a top guy before he should even be thinking about a #1 contender's match. Plenty of guys ahead of him in line. Even his draw against Tito was tainted by a penalty point for Ortiz if I remember correctly. I think you have Machida in line for the loser of Griffin/Rampage as a #1 contender's match,

I've been playing Stud8 and Razz at $0.25/0.50, the lowest level Full Tilt offers. I'm fairly confident that I'm beating that game, and have the bankroll to move up to the next level. However, there is very rarely a $0.50/$1.00 game running so I'm stuck playing the lowest limit. I'm not really comfortable playing $1/$2 - I'm not sure my game's ready for that yet, and honestly an average pot of $8 or $9 is intimidating for me with my bankroll (and I'm not nearly well rolled enough to try). What do you all recommend?

Agreed with Frez on 5th - you have to bet on 5th street there. You called on 4th, caught just about the best card in the deck for your hand, and didn't bet. Plus I never disagree with raw aggression ;)I think you have to bet on 7th...Egypt hasn't shown any aggression so far in the hand, and unless he caught a river straight I wouldn't count on him doing it here. What do we think Plum had here? buried Jacks? Split 9s? His line is really weird to me.