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Everything posted by dingas

  1. of course it's in his interests to continue to the end given those numbers. As it stands, he has a 25% chance of winning $250,000 or he can sell out for $19,500. $250,000/4 > $19,500, so he should take another box. Obviously, though it depends on his personal situation. If, for example, his wife needs an operation costing $17,000 and there is no other way he can afford it but from his winnings on this game show, then he should take the settlement. But from a pure $EV standpoint, it's clear that he should continue.
  2. I agree with your logic. I actually would consider folding the turn cause the pot is so small and your hand can't improve. Anyway, I think the river is a clear fold. On the turn there is some possibility that both players have draws, but not after a bet and call on a blank river. At best you're chopping with another A5 here.
  3. I don't really see what is being debated in this hand.EDIT - If you put him on a very tight range because of preflop then I think calling the flop might be the best play to let him continue to bet his AK.
  4. I think with his monsters he is going to take a trickier line on the flop instead of just betting out. And AA or KK are unlikely because of preflop, so you should go all in. NH
  5. This is wrong. Protecting your hand against draws is an important reason for betting in many situations. Getting value for your hand and provoking opponents to make incorrect calls are other reasons. But okay, I agree with your general point, in NLHE most of your value does come from getting people to make incorrect calls (this is not necessarily true in other forms of poker though).BTW: OP you played the hand fine.
  6. I don't disagree with your assessment of DN's character, but you'll probably notice in life that almost all successful people have a similar characteristic. Way of the world, my friend...
  7. I might not raise this hand preflop. It's not a bad hand, but it's not that great. In a tournament it might be better to play it safe and limp.I kind of feel the same about the flop. This looks like a great flop for your hand, but the problem is that you have no made hand at all, so you won't be a significant favorite against any of villian's range (unless villian has something like 9TJ2). True, your draw is pretty big, you're like 40% against a set and a coinflip against 2-pair, but still I think a call is better because you are almost never a favorite when your raise is called. If you could
  8. I guess you would nut peddle post flop and play pretty tight preflop. I would think that hands like uncoordinated big pairs would go way down in value. Also low straight and flush draws would probably be unplayable. I think you would be looking to play high suited cards almost exclusively, and maybe highly coordinated middle rundowns like 6789Tds.
  9. I don't like the three bet from the small blind preflop. As played, you are holding blockers to the possible straight draws so that might make me lean towards taking a stab on the flop.
  10. Villain check-called the flop and turn so you can't put him on a strong hand like a set. Even if he was calling down with a weak two-pair, the 8 is going to be a scare card for him so he probably won't call the river if you bet again.Then there's the factor that the 8 filled a lot of draws he could have been holding (and he played his hand like a draw). All in all when you bet and he calls I think you're beat most of the time, making a bet the wrong move.
  11. I don't think you get called by many hands that you beat. Just check behind.
  12. well the thing is that if he doesn't have the flush what does he have that will pay off a raise? Just flat call and if you lose you live to fight another day.
  13. I think the preflop call is pretty bad. The implied odds really aren't that good - pretty much the only highly profitable flops for you will be quads vs. top full house or the nut straight with a heart draw and those don't come along often. You'll more often get into trouble flopping a set of fives on a low board.The river should be a pretty easy call. Aside from T5, T3, TT, and 33 being pretty unlikely combos, the play on the preflop, flop, and turn is not consistent with those hands.
  14. Well played, probably. It sucks to fold but I don't think he's betting the river without a straight.
  15. I probably play it the same, but maybe you should fold because there are so few missed draws that he will be bluffing with. In the moment I'm sure I would call, but maybe it's a mistake. i don't mind checking back the flop. betting the turn has positives as well, but probably a check is better.
  16. Nope I'm still thinking a level ahead of you. Villain thinks "He is trying to make me think he has a set, but based on his flop check he can't have a set, but he knows that he can't represent a set after checking the flop so he wouldn't even try to bluff it (let alone a cold 3-bet bluff) if he didn't have it, so therefore he must have it." Will this bet work? I don't know. My understanding of op's logic is that the min bet and the tiny raise show such weakness that a lot of the time they won't be able to call even if they put hero on a bluff. This type of bluff comes up once in a while in mult
  17. You're not thinking on the right level. Sure, checking the flop and then pushing the turn looks a bit suspicious... But we are pushing over top of a bet and a raise - I don't think many people will interpret that as a bluff. And that's the beauty of it - people don't bluff in this sort of spot, so you make the play as a bluff.Anyway, it's not like no one ever checks behind a set on this flop. Of course, it's possible to have a set in this spot. And we could have hit the set on the turn too.
  18. I actually like your play on the turn and think you pick it up quite often.But the preflop call is pretty terrible.
  19. It doesn't matter what he had. It's still a bad play to get all in with bottom set on this board. I mean, his play was terrible obviously, but most of the time you will get shown a straight or a higher set when you get raised on this flop.
  20. Fold preflop. Fold to the raise on the flop. Your logic on the flop is really bad. Even if your read is correct that he doesn't have a straight, then the only other hands that he could have to call your re-raise are 66 and 88, both of which have you drawing to one out.
  21. I think it's a standard bet/fold spot.
  22. Check/ call turn. Push river if you hit your hand or the board pairs.
  23. It's close between fold and all in to the flop raise. Just depends whether you are in a gambling mood.
  24. Been a while since I played this game, but I think you played it fine. It might be better to check-raise the flop to possibly run him off something like AA4* or A2** with no high hand, but I think calling and seeing a safe turn is fine especially with a third player still in the hand. With a preflop raise, straights shouldn't really make up a big part of his range unless it's AAT8 or A258, so folding is not really ever an option in my opinion.
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