AKProdigy
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Posts posted by AKProdigy
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I'll provide you with the odds wheneve rI get on tmrw... too tired right now.
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shovel.And I HATE the call pf. Tough spot as played though. I probably fold.How do you play this if the flop comes 789? -
AKProdigy (Mississauga)
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The one thing I hate about shoving the turn is that its only purpose is to price out draws: any hand you beat is folding, any hand that beats you is calling here. It's a tough spot because if you check behind, you give drawing hands a free card while effectively giving hands that don't hit a chance to bluff the river. That being said, it comes down to your read. If you really are confident he's on a draw, push here.
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[ (4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50) ] ^2 = 0.000003276%
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AKProdigy (Mississauga)GL to whoever gets chosen
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I play it the same as well. If he had bet a sizable amount on the river, it might have been debatable. (btw post stack sizes next time)
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Hero ($6.40)SB ($6.40)BB ($9.15)UTG ($14.75)MP ($5.70)Preflop: Hero is Button with T
, J 
. UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: ($0.40) T , J , A (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.4, Hero raises to $1.2, SB folds, BB folds, UTG raises to $14.65, Hero ?no reads on villain -
Shove is fine.
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I raise to about 3200 here hoping to take it down. If anyone else shows strength, I play the rest of the hand slowly unless I hit the flop or you get isolated with a weak player. I'd be able to get pushed off this hand fairly easily though if one of the stacks that had me covered shoved behind me. I actually wouldn't MIND a shove since most of the stacks still to act are around 10k or below, but I'd rather not have all my chips on the line here against one of the two bigger stacks with just AQ.
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At first glance, I didn't like it at all.. but his range of hands is so wide and you're getting 3:1 to call... it's probably close IF you have a read that he's probably on a draw. If he has 2nd or 3rd pair, or any PP <TT.... you're a bit more than 3:1 to hit a J or A. Of course if he hit the Q... you're in horrible shape.I really don't know. Even without a read I figure it's a borderline situation... I think there's a huge possibility he has the fd here. I don't think personally I could call, but if you have a strong read I'd go for it.
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1) Raise more on the flop. You're giving him 400 to call in a pot of 1200. I'd probably up it to about 900 - 1000. 2) He seems like a typical bad 4.40 player. Bets 400 into a pot of 1600, then calls a raise upto 1600. This could either be a flush draw, or maybe something goofy like one pair.3) I really can't say without reads. If you have none, I'd probably call. I'm guessing he had something like K 7 and hit two pair. There's also the chance he had a flush draw and completed (I've seen bad players play it similarly, check and call raises with bad odds) but ur given better than 3:1. Definite call.
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What's his stack like? If you are going to bet on the turn, I'd shove here. There's no point in committing almost half your remaining stack and then folding: shovel or check behind.And I definitely raise the flop. You have top pair, and as you mentioned, its likely he has 2nd or 3rd pair, so definitely raise. There's too many draws out there.
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This really looks like TPWK by some clueless player. He minraises the flop and underbets the turn. I really am lead to believe this is more of a donkey play then a slowplay or value bet. It's possible its a straight, 2P or trips, but I'm calling down here everytime. I've seen this kind of betting at the lower limits too much with just first or second pair.
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*scared to say anything*To flame, or not to flame-- That is the *real* question:Whether 'tis nobler in this thread to sufferThe slings and arrows of outrageous responsesOr to take count of a sea of unknown mucked cardsAnd by counting, track them. To call, to draw--Not fold-- and by drawing to say we endThe mystery of the river cardThat is yet to be dealt. 'Tis a fifth heartDevoutly to be wished. To call, to draw--To draw-- perchance to miss: ay there's the rub,For with that river card what action may comeWhen we have shuffled off this busted flush drawMust be time to bluff. There's the respectThat makes the calamity of poker worth playing.For those who would bear the whips and scorns by chasing bad draws.Th' caller's wrong, the bettor priced him outThe pangs of missed draws, the dealer's delay,The insolence of raising, and the spurnsThat patient whittling of th'donkey's chip stackWhen he himself might with a poor call makeJack high on the river? Who would callers bearTo grit and call with a mispriced drawBut that the dread of a blank river cardThe undiscovered river, from whose bournNo missed draw improves, puzzles the fold,And makes us rather bear the bluffs we faceThan call to the river that we know not?Thus gutshots does make cowards of us all,And thus the native hue of a flush drawIs sicklied o'er with the pale cast of an overbet,And enterprise of great straight flush drawsWith a blank river card turn awryAnd lose the juicy pot --All his now,The aggressive turn-bettor-- Villain, in that potBe all my chips remembered. -
Actually this is sort of a spin off question that's really asking something completely different: You have a nut flush draw, there's four people in, and you suspect two of them are on draws, one of them has TPTK or something. Do you account for this in pot odds when calling a bet? Theoretically you should right? I guess it balances out by implied odds since when you hit your flush, you suspect you'll get a massive pot since two other people would hit their draws as well. And in response to OP: You don't know what those muck cards are: Theoretically any card in the muck pile has as much a chance of showing up from the deck as cards actually left in the deck since there's no way to know what the other people at the table were holding (Unless you have some sort of extraordinary read that lets you "feel" what suit they folded)
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You got your money in as mroe than a 3:1 favourite... this is probably one of the best situations you can ask for so really... BBFIDTS lol. An argument can be made for raising all in pf.. I personally call. But this hand played out perfect, you just got unlucky. If your asking whether I'd rather chip up 6k, or 75:25 chip up 27k....1*(6k) = 6k0.75(27k)+0.25(-27k)=13.5k.There you go.
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ASSUMING he calls off his chips 100% time if we hit the flush on the turn:We're calling 102500 to win ~600000....... 6:1 oddsChances we hit the flush on the turn.......5:1 oddsSo roughly... if you are ~85% sure he's going broke when the flush hits the turn, this is a break-even call. I personally think its much less than that and thats why I fold. (I know, I didn't include the possibility he slows down on the turn and we have two streets to hit the flush) We're running this table over, we have a huge lead: we can find better spots than this. The implied odds aren't nearly enough considering the stacks are so small to the bet. I fold everytime unless I'm positive I'm getting paid off on the turn.very close, but i think i call...there is one thing i see that i think maybe some others have missed that leads me to believe that calling does have profiti understand the board is paired, and we could be in trouble against the nut flush draw, but since we are against the second chip leader, if we call and hit our flush, there is a chance that we bust him and end up with about 1.45M...that is a dominating stack, and i think it's worth calling off about 12% of our stack to try to put ourselves in a better position to win...if we have to fold on the turn, then we still have the chip lead with 780kalso, if we call here we might get the chance to look at two cards, or bluff the hand later if possiblei understand that this is very high risk and that 99.99999999% of people will disagree with me, but i guess that's just how i roll -
Unless you're valuebetting the river, always bet at least half the pot (in small stakes poker, and for most general cases I believe as well). As played, I fold. I probably stop betting on the turn. And I would have raise to .20/.25 PF.
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I fold. You're not getting the odds to call here nor the implied odds since the stacks are small compared to the size of the bet. I don't like raising here either just because I think a pocket pair makes up a large chunk of his range. I would probably fold preflop here as well considering his tight image.
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I shovel here everytime. Looks like he's making a move and putting you on overcards or something.
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Standard. Based on range I put him on pf...Hands that beat you and call: 99 77Hands that you beat and call: 10 - KK, A9 (Edit: I'll admit that the JJ - KK are more unlikely based on the fact that I would expect a reraise. However I've seen people flat call with these hands before)Hands that you beat and might call: AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, KhJhAnd you price any draws out.Shovel turn.
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ICM is a tool to be used. The calculator in this case is a fairly accurate indicator of what decision we should make, since poker is a game of decisions based on limited information and assumptions. To say we shouldn't rely on the calculator because our own assumptions are infallible doesn't make sense since we'd be calling or folding based on our own assumptions anyways. I think the one thing ICM does not take into consideration is our advantage over the remaining players, which in turn effect whether it is correct to call or fold based on a small $EV advantage.By the way, monix you did not include the cases where we fold, and button folds, or we call and button folds. Those actually might make the numbers lean towards a call instead (even though I'm aware I said fold originally). I don't really use ICM much other than crude calculations in my head, so I'm not going to attempt to do the math lol.1. I originally did NOT read your post, as I was intimidated by all the numbers (really). 2. I'm not sure if I agree with the math involved. In PXF sng videos Sheets is always using that calculator, and generally he seems to use it correctly and gets pretty clear results from in. Of course, 98% of the time it tells him what he already knew. Probably more like 99%. 3. I disagree with the assumption that the ICM calculator is infallible and always correct, because to use it we need to make our own assumptions (which you did, and which I'm not necessarily disagreeing with), but which makes it less-than-perfect to say the least, which is not a good thing for a calculator to be. -
I think that range includes a lot of hands that realistically wouldn't have called preflop. Unless he's really an ultra loose player.Raise more PF - 450 would be my default bet.Beat him into the pot. You are are way ahead of his range...behind AA, KK QQ, 99, 33 and way of everything else. At worst he would have a flopped set, AA, KK, QQ, heart draw, a poorer Q than yours...Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 122,760 games 0.005 secs 24,552,000 games/secBoard: Qh 9h 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 59.476% 57.80% 01.67% 70960 2053.00 { AsQs }Hand 1: 40.524% 38.85% 01.67% 47694 2053.00 { 99+, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, AQo+, KQo, Q9o+ }
Tb17's Blue Jays August 12 Team Thread
in 100k Stakeaments - Drafts / Teams / Trash Talk
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