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Everything posted by erac22

  1. A government bailout of the GSE's shows that the US govt will not let them default on their debt. As far as I can tell, the only way that freddie or fannie paper defaults is if the US govt defaults, in which case treasuries are worthless too. This is simply a bet that the US govt will not let Freddie and Fannie fail, which they have essentially committed to already. A default by freddie or fannie would essentially mean that the govt has run out of money to pay their obligations, in which case they have also run out of money to pay their own obligations, losing money on a trade will be the l
  2. hello,I haven't posted here in a while but i wanted to see what people thought of this trade: Getting long fannie/freddie paper and shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Freddie and Fannie paper is essentially backed by the federal govt yet trading 200 bp above equivelant treasuries. This trade is simply a bet that this spread will close, which seems like a high likelihood since both treasuries and fannie/freddie paper are now liabilities of the same instution, the federal govt. Thoughts?
  3. If i call the flop what do i do on a spade turn facing action? Non spade facing action? Checked to me?
  4. Yeah, on most sites I think this is probably an autofold. But when you find an unknown at midstakes on bodog they are often completely braindead roullette players looking for more outlets for their degeneracy. But I guess everyone is in agreement so end thread.Thanks,Eric
  5. I folded, but how would you suggest playing my hand face down?Calling the flop? Not raising preflop? Explain.
  6. sorry, i don't know how to import HH from bodog. I opened from like UTG+2.
  7. villain is unknown, new to table, ep is on the site a fair amount but i wouldn't call him a reg. Have never really clashed with him. My image should be pretty Tag at this point, as I haven't played many hands and haven't gotten out of line at all. The site is bodog.I have AK, no club and raise to 16 (400 stack)Villain (400) in small blind calls, ep (180) callsPot (50ish) flop- K 4c 7cVillain leads 40, ep calls, hero bumps to 100, villain makes it 228, ep folds.Hero???
  8. I don't think people get that attached to a $300k house that they owe a $400k mortgage on, especially if they only bought it in the past few years...
  9. Isn't this rally, led by financials, confirmation that this market is in a lot of trouble? We get Philly fed news that is bad but not quite as bad as expected, and the market goes up due to lousy news by any standards. I think this is a clear sign that there is way too much optimism in the stock market and a lot of buyers/holders still to be flushed out.
  10. hello, haven't posted in a while.Some quick analysis:Since August, the market has rallied on fed action and little else. With the fed probably sitting on its hands for at least the next 2 weeks (unless another shoe drops, which wouldn't help markets either), the S&P will almost certainly test its 1275-ish lows hit back in january and after the Bear Stearns news. If we bounce again off that low we will have a triple bottom, which would indiciate to me that we will probably continue to be range bound until a catalyst either way. A drop below that level, IMO, could trigger an assload of st
  11. Bodog 300nl 6 maxVillain has 600, i have him covered and position on him.Only real read is that a few rounds earlier i took a medium sized pot off him when i raised pf with AJ, flop came jack high and i checked behind, bet turn and river and he called down with 88. SO i'll consider him looser than tag but probably not crazy.PreflopVillain limps utg, hero raises to 15 or so with AQ, bb and villain call. Flop(A,2,4) offsuitscheck, check, hero bets 26, small blind folds, villain bumps to 76, hero calls. Pot=200Turn(8)Villain checks, hero checks.River(7)Villain bets 43, hero calls.Does anyone fo
  12. no, i definitely wasn't considering folding. I shoved turn and he called with A6. Oh well, just making sure this was a cooler and not me being stupid. Trying to shake the rust off. Thanks guys.
  13. 1/2nl fr bodogfairly new to the table, I have about 200 in the cutoff, button has me covered.PreflopHero (6h3h), folds around to hero, raises to 7, btn calls, bb calls.Flop(6,6,K) offsuitbb leades for 6, hero raises to 25, btn calls, bb folds.Turn(Q)Hero checks, btn bets 45, hero?new to the table, no real reads. If anyone at the table recognzies me they probably know me as fairly lag. Besides folding preflop, any comments?
  14. Email is by its very nature passive aggressive when used to deal with confrontations. Might as well go all out...e
  15. Well the 3 o'clock withcing hour is upon us, I'm expecting the typical 1% final hour acceleration. Surprisingly, my little play money model portfolio has been holding up super well due to sick gains by Hansen natural (hans) Applied Industrial Technologies (ait) and UGI corp (ugi) Healthnet (hnt) and Toro (ttc). Lockheeds having a decent day too. I'm gussing these will all come back down to earth a little in the last hour.This volitility must be some sick action for options traders, anyone make any killer options palys?***hmmm... a rally, interesting...
  16. sw/2, which means it's half sarcastic, half utter disgust at the direction of domestic policy on both the state and federal level. (i.e. the UIGA, heard of it? ) I choose not to really even think about the war anymore, as it just seems cartoonish at this point. Unless there's a draft (at which point I will most certainly dodge) I will continue to ignore the war and focus my political energy (which is little to begin with) on securing/regaining my own freedoms.
  17. We can't smoke cigarettes in bars anymore and you guys are focused on some silly war. GET YOUR PRIORITIES STRAIGHT!!! I guess if America is the standard of freedom, and we're trying to promote freedom in the Middle East, making us less free has the same effect as making them more free. BRILLIANT!
  18. I'm a Paranoid Schizophrenic!! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  19. Wow, well I just got off an unprecedented 50 minute morning call (usually it's about 15 minutes) where the sentiment was much much gloomier than it has been. The "buzzphrases" had been "valuations still appealing," "markets are oversold," "Dow 16,000 by year's end." Today it was more like "we still see downside in the market," "valuations are not as compelling as they seem," "the economy appears to be slowing," and "we may need to start raising cash and re-evaluating our quant strategies." Quite a reversal in a short amount of time. The CIO, who usually isn't even in on morning calls, was
  20. I drink light beer b/c Coor's light is the "coldest tasting beer on earth." It tastes cold even when it it's warm.
  21. Philadelphia Whiskey, 12.99/handle, and it's surprisingly delicious.
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