srblan
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Posts posted by srblan
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True, checking with the intention of coming over the top is worthwhile, but never value betting because you don't have a cinch hand leaves money on the table. It is all read dependent.
Depends on the table. The $25/NL on Empire is full of people that love to steal the pot when the early player checks. Makes for a fun session when they bet $1 into a $11 pot, and are shocked when you reraise their weak bet. If they bet pot, Ill give them credit for a good hand, or a good bluff, and lay down all but the strongest hands (ie I hold a full house and a four card flush is on the board) - this is a great moneymaker.Give your opponents an opportunity to dig his own grave - you can just push him into it afterwards.DevThat makes play really predictable. If you never bet the river without the nuts, how often do you think you are going to get called on the river by a player that's paying attention? -
Before you decide how to play against an aggressive preflop raiser, you need to decide if he can lay down a hand. If he can't, then you want to punish his looseness by value betting, but you will be going through some big swings along the way. The problem is that the best hand doesn't always win, as we all are very aware, and he will often outdraw you, despite your best efforts. If he is willing to call overbets, then by all means, overbet the pot. Make sure you have the best hand when you do it, though.If he is capable of making a big laydown, pick up your chips and find a different table. You are probably outclassed. Many players will play very loosely preflop, and often very aggressively, and then rely on good reads after the flop to try to take pots away from you or to make you pay when they have you beat. If you are new to the game and don't have an endless supply of cash, you probably don't want lessons this way.The first type of player is just there to gamble. If you can be patient, you want him in your game. He'll always be there to give your big hands action, and even if one of his longshot draws pays off, he will be making a mistake along the way by chasing it. Don't get cute or fancy with your big hands. He'll pay you off either way, but if you get cute, you'll often give him free opportunities to beat you.Good no-limit players will often play a lot of hands when the stacks are large relative to the blinds, since if they manage to hit a random hand, they stand a good chance of doubling up. Bear in mind though, that in order to be good, you have to be able to lay down a second-best holding when you know it's beat. Many people read the first part and fail to pay attention to the second part. Concentrate on making correct decisions, if you get upset because you get outdrawn (and YOU WILL get outdrawn), making bad decisions is the best way to make sure that you go broke. If you lose a buyin or two, get up from the table. At low levels, table image might not be a huge consideration, but it is big enough that if people see you get broke twice they are going to start looking you up more, and you'd much rather be feared at a no-limit table. Move to another table, or call it a night. It is tough to avoid steaming when you first start off because you go in as a big favorite and it hurts to see your big hands go down in flames. Don't try to win it back all at once, more often than not, you will just end up losing more.
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That makes play really predictable. If you never bet the river without the nuts, how often do you think you are going to get called on the river by a player that's paying attention?Betting is bad. They can raise you and you have to pay off a better hand or of you fold you could have folded the best hand.Only bet with cinch hands on the river. -
I'm 99% sure that you won't find any live, low-limit triple draw. If you don't mind playing it online, it is spread at ultimatebet, but I don't think the games are always going. Triple draw is spread almost exclusively in high-limit mixed games (commerce has them, so does the bellagio). To answer your question about where Daniel plays it, currently, the answer is the Bellagio. However, as I'm sure Daniel will add, the answer on the 28th will be the Wynn. The big game almost always includes triple draw, and almost always it's 2-7. The lowest limit that I've heard the mixed games play is 300-600, but they might play lower. I'm sure that's out of most of our price ranges, of course.
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If you put him on a flush draw, why not stack him off on the turn? If a diamond came off would you have laid down your hand to a raise? If so, I actually don't hate his play here. In that case, he has three outs to make the nuts and 10 or 11 outs to represent the nuts and take the pot from you. It would be easier to get value out of a gutshot and get paid off because his raise might look like a busted flush draw taking a stab. The funny thing about his pot odds comment is that by calling his all in bet you gave him implied odds to draw to his hand. He called a $45 bet on the turn to win a pot that eventually totalled $600. That's better than 13 to 1 and he's only 11 to 1 against making his hand. I agree with the analysis given about your play of the hand, but he has position on you and pot sized bets might not be enough to drive him out of the hand if he's playing for your stack. If you bet it all on the turn you don't give him the opportunity to bluff you out and you don't give him the odds to hit his gutshot. You might not be getting full value from a drawing hand but you also aren't faced with any more tough decisions and it wouldn't be totally out of the question to see someone online call you with the flush draw anyway.One last thing, forget about your losing streak! It sucks to be on a bad run, but what sucks worse is if you dwell on it and it affects your play. Take a couple days off and see if you can't turn your luck around when you come back. Believe it or not, some time away may the best thing you can do to end the bad run.
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In a simulation to showdown, you are correct. That is what Cappelletti "proved" in his book (note, a simulation really doesn't PROVE anything). However, there are several important factors to consider. In many of those simulated hands, those kings might not look like they are the winning hand until the turn or the river, and even then they are not necessarily easy to play. In a high only game (or even in high-low split), a flop of 7 8 9 is likely to cause a good omaha player to fold AAKK double suited unless there is some type of flush draw available (and maybe even with a backdoor flush draw possibility if there is heavy action), but in a simulation, the turn and river could be K 8, giving the kings a big full house (the near-nuts). In real life, decisions are made, while in simulations, the hand is dealt all the way to the river each time, without regard to the playability of any hand at any point.I would much rather have AAJ10 than AAKK, honestly, because with AAKK, you have one straight to draw to, two big pairs to try to hit, and two possible flush draws. That's it. You are rarely going to win with an unimproved big pair in omaha, and you will rarely hold on to it to win even if it would have won (if I don't improve on my hand on the flop, I'm rarely holding onto a big pair without any other reasonable draws). With AAJ10, you have 4 nut straight draws, two flush draws, a big pair, etc. i find a flop of 8 9 2 to be much more playable holding AAJ10 than AAKK because even if my pair of aces are best right now, it will be hard for me to know that they are still best on the turn or river unless I happen upon a flush. I guess it's a matter of opinion which hand is better, but I just wanted to point out that most of what you read in poker books is not 100% fact (unless you are talking about calculating outs, for example). Nuff said.. (more than enough, probably)
oops, wrong. AAKK double suited wins the most often. Head up against AAJT ds it will win about four percent more, and in a multi way it will win even more than that. Mike Capaletti proved it in his Omaha bookThe best hand in Omaha hi is AAJT double suited -
I've heard 69 called several things: Big lick, Happy Meal, sex, etc.I've heard 69 suited called Prom Night.
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I think I mentioned table image in response to the question before, now I'm pretty glad I mentioned it. It would be much smoother sailing at the final table if you were to call an all-in with that hand because others at the table would be much more likely to make the same move if they saw you folding with pot odds that were that close.
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"It's only a rash, it isn't contagious." Oh, wait, wrong set of lies ;)Some of the worst lies that poker players make are to themselves: "I'm pot committed, I have to call here even though I know I'm beat.""I'm hemmoraging money, but it's not because I'm getting outplayed or making bad decisions, I'm just getting unlucky, like the time I flopped two pair with 83 offsuit and I got beat by that flush draw or the bigger two pair."
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The reason for pushing in with Ax is that you want a hand that can stand a showdown without necessarily improving. Ace high could potentially win if you are up against king high. Jack high could not. If you move in with J-10 and get called with A-J you are in big trouble. If you move in with 9-10 and get called by 99 or 10-10, you are in trouble. The point is that you are going to need to get lucky with any hand that you are up against, so why not give yourself the best shot at winning without improvement? That is the reason that Mike Caro mentions moving in with a small pair instead of connectors: they are most likely to survive without improvement.
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I'd have limped with the 9s, rather than raising with them. You aren't going to get a better hand to fold by raising with them, and if someone raises behind you, you have a tough decision to make. If you flop a set, you are likely to bust someone. If you don't, you haven't invested much and you can throw them away. You mentioned moving all in to try to move someone off of AQ or AK. I don't know a lot of people that would fold AK in a tournament when faced with an all-in raise. You also stated that you are a postflop player. If that is the case, why put all your money in preflop? That means that you give them a chance to call and get lucky rather than trying to outplay them with only a small amount invested.
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You did not really mention what your goal was. Your small raise, you stated, was to indicate your desire to go after the small stack. When the big stack went all in, that goal went out the window. Now, you are put to the test, do you want to give the big stack a chance to knock out the small stack or do you want to give yourself the best chance of winning the whole thing. If you decide that you want to go for the win, then a call is clearly warranted. If you think that you can outplay your opponents, then folding makes sense, since it will give you the chance to survive and maybe move up two places instead of just one. I HATE the small stack's move here. He is in the small blind and he could fold and it would give him a few more free hands to pick up a hand big enough to make a stand with. Calling all in with a pair of threes is simply terrible in this spot.
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Quick question about your read: You mention that the dealer is a short stack. With queens, why would he want to give you a chance to outplay him on the flop? A short stack would be likely to put in all of the money and hope that his queens hold up. The same can be said about his bet on the flop. Why would he bet so little? He wants to make sure that he keeps you in the hand. The other question that I have is, why not put him all in before the flop? If you would consider folding on the flop, then you should have considered folding before the flop. If you are going to call his bet on the flop anyway, why not bet the flop and give him a chance to fold? The reason that you think that he is just trying to steal the pot is because you check to him and give him a chance to bet. If you take the lead and bet out, there is still a remote possibility that he could fold aces.It would have made the decision much easier for you if you had either put him in before the flop or folded. On the flop, if you would even consider folding when a king hit, you should have folded before the flop. If you could consider K 7 5 a bad flop for AK, what would be a good flop? A K K? You're beat by aces. A K 2? You are still beat by aces, or kings (I've actually had AK against AA with that flop). The fact of the matter is that putting all the money in before the flop means that you don't have to think after the flop. Here's the thing: if you hit your flop, and they have QQ or JJ, then they have a chance to fold. That prevents you from knocking them out. If they have AA or KK, they are not going to fold if you hit your flop, and they are DEFINITELY not going to fold if you don't. If they flop a set, and you make a pair, you are going to double them up. Why not put all the money in and hope that you hit your flop or better yet that they fold? You are out of position and you'd rather not be put to a tough decision.
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You made the right play, he played like a donkey. It happens too often, but thank him for calling you as such a huge dog. I like potting it ahead of him on the flop because it shows him that you are not afraid of his two big cards. Another possibility is reraising half the pot or less before the flop to show some strength, but still not enough to commit all of your chips.
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The small blind had only himself to blame for not winning that pot instead of you. All he had to do was pop it on the flop and you were throwing away your hand unless he had pocket 10s, in which case he should have bet out on the turn. If he had jacks and he popped it up to like 200, A-10 probably still would have called and he would have gotten you (the drawing hand) out of the pot. He tried to get clever and he ended up hurting himself. If he had A-2, then he has only himself to blame for not raising the flop (or for calling your raise preflop with that). He doesn't know that you don't have something like A-J or A-K and if you have A-J, he's dead to a 2 but with AK, he has a tough decision to make if a K comes on board.As far as the guy with A-10, I hate his play all around. First of all, he called a raise with a trap hand out of position. Second of all, he check called a bet on the flop in a spot where he was dominated by a lot of possible hands, rather than raising to find out if his ace was good.As far as trapping for $120, you are inviting disaster. Knowing that they had enough to call you on the flop, you should be trying to bet enough to look like you are worried that your "draw" might not hit and you are trying to steal the pot or that you are worried that their draws might hit and you don't want to let them see cards cheaply. By betting that little, you are pricing a lot of drawing hands in (two clubs, for instance) and you don't really want to do that. Yes, you have the nuts, but you have a hand that is vulnerable against a lot of possible holdings. I do like your reraise all-in, but you got very lucky that the five seat decided to check-raise.
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The only way I'd really want to have AK in an unraised pot is from the button or one off the button. That way, if I miss the flop and it is checked around to me, I can bet. If I hit the flop, I might catch someone with a bad kicker. Otherwise, I'd want to try to win a little pot. I'm not a big fan of chasing with ak unless there is some type of draw, backdoor or otherwise, which I can hit. A pair with a kicker is often not enough to win in no limit, so if I have something like overcards with a gutshot, or a backdoor flush, I am much more comfortable putting in money with ak.
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With the blinds at that size, everyone but you is short stacked. Any time you enter a pot, you are basically pot committed since nobody has enough money to move you off of a hand since there is $12,000 in the pot before you enter and $20k if you decide to limp in making it correct to call a raise with any two cards even if it is made by the 40k stack. Moving them all in (not the same as moving yourself all in, since obviously you are only risking the size of their stacks) is definitely a good strategy in this spot, since you are only risking 5% of your chips at the most. If one of them gets lucky enough to double through you, obviously the strategy will change a little. However, you are forcing them to wait for a hand to take a stand with, and in the meantime you are picking up the blinds.
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Moneymaker was calling for low cards when he called Boyd's all in, indicating that he believed (correctly) that Boyd had unpaired high cards.By the way. Raymer's call's were based on what the other people would play that way based on his read of their play, then his probability that he would win based on what he put them on. Profitability, plain and simple. I didn't see Moneymaker's series, but figure it to be similar. Proof of Raymer's is that when Anderson shows AK, Raymer comments that he was surprised Anderson was so strong, because he figured Anderson would do that with any Ace. I heard that Moneymaker made some kind of similar claim as to what Dutch Boyd had when Moneymaker held a pair of 3s to knock him out, but the story I heard might have been skewed. Also, ESPN shows all in hands. That's what they do. Do not make a decision in poker based on TV. We don't know the facts, just the actions. -
The practical problem with that strategy is that your big hands won't get paid off because you'll be all-in well before the betting is done. With a bankroll of a grand, you're playing WAY above your limits. If it works out for you, more power to you, but you are losing a lot of value by playing at those limits with that size stake.well i know this isn't textbook and it hasn't been mentioned and will probably be looked down upon, but online, i sit down with the minimum, alwaysI play 5/10 and 10/20 so at 5/10 im sitting with 50 and 10/20 im sitting with 100, my bankroll is always over a grand no matter what, but i feel when I sit down with the minimum i don't get reckless, and if i do happen to go on tilt or a bad run the most im losing is the minimum, which is nothing, i usually leave after i triple my money unless im having a really good run, which is probably looked upon as well lol, but whatever works right? Different strokes for different folks -
Most hold'em players overvalue pocket aces in omaha. In hold 'em, you don't really need a backup plan for your big pairs. Sometimes you'll make a flush or a straight with them, they are great when you hit a set, but you don't necessarily need a set to beat most hold 'em hands. That is because you only have two other cards to worry about. In omaha, you have 6 combinations of cards per hand to worry about, so your hand almost always has to improve for you to win the pot. You are ahead with them before the flop, but if they don't improve, you are likely beat.If you have the mindset that every omaha hand is a draw (a set is a draw to a full house, in addition to the straights and flush draws that we are all used to) then it will be much less frustrating when you lose with things like pocket aces or kings.If you decide not to raise with them, you are likely to get more action when your aces make the nuts because in omaha high (when you are playing with converted hold 'em players), a raise before the flop usually means aces or another big pair, so if an ace hits the board and the board pairs, you haven't disguised your hand very well and the only action you are likely to get is from the guy with quads who made them when the board paired :wink: . In O8B, it either means A-2 or aces, though far more often it is a-2. In any event, disguising your hand will often get you more action against players that pay attention to what you'll raise with, but against those who don't, go ahead and pop it up before the flop.
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I totally agree with this assessment, though there is one thing that is not entirely clear. It is not 100% clear that we are the big stack. Our relative chip position at the table might influence our decision on whether the call makes sense. If the other stacks at the table are big enough to push us around then a lot of our ante steal attempts might fail. They are probably going to be tempted to come over the top of us having seen us chuck this hand with 2:1 odds on a call. It might help our table image and prevent marginal hands from trying to bully us by showing down this hand. You are 60% to win against a random hand with A9. Against the average hand that someone might go all in with (a pair or an ace), according to a neat little table I found at twoplustwo, A9o is roughly 47% which means that the call might not be horrendous. Anyway, just something to think about.Theres a big concept in tournaments you all have to understand.Except **** hands like 92, 58 etc your always at least 30% win-% in a heads up situation. This math make its O.K to CALL an ALLIN bet when you are BIGSTACKED and move ALL IN when you are SHORTSTACKED.Just one requierment, the potodds must be 1:3. In this case...Pot: 5600 to call it would cost you 2800. The potodds for this must be equal to coinflip and in this case i belive not. Fold. -
If his pair is 9s or better than you are getting horrible pot odds to make a call. You are at least a 3-1 dog against a pair that is not an underpair. I agree with your ultimate analysis that this is probably a reasonable fold, though.If it's a pocket pair I'm not too much of a dog to make this call, but if he has an ace I'm weary.
bad beat jackpot strategy
in General Strategy
Posted
If you really want to play for the jackpot, play the biggest limit that you can afford, you'll have to work a lot harder to overcome the rake. I haven't done any simulations as to which hands are most likely to yield a jackpot, but common sense would dictate suited connectors (maybe one and two gappers, but this is likely to cost you some money in small pots), and pairs 8 and above. The way that you are likely to make the most money, though, is not playing for the jackpot, rather, taking advantage of loose play due to the jackpot. I'm not sure if this will overcome the rake, but you really can't force a jackpot, it will generally come about in the normal course of play.