LongOdds
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Posts posted by LongOdds
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Out of the Box - There is no such thing as successful ethical investing. Three possibilities. 1) You have inside information (the definition of unethical investing, I presume). 2) You have analyzed public information and have discovered a trend/fact that indicates a successful investing opportunity. In this case, it is your obligation, ethically of course, to share such discover with those less fortunate and ignorant of said discovery. As the information is made more available, the opportunity dissipates and is no longer successful. 3) You have no inside information, and you have no useful public information, so really you are just investing blindly. Not ethical, because the money that you are investing could be used more productively (whether defined by financial productivity or societal productivity is your choice) in other ways, so investing blindly is unethical because it serves as a disservice to society as a whole (as well as your own pocket book). Basically, all investing is unethical because it is a) per se unethical, B) unethical via lack of freely sharing information that could help others, or c) unethical via stupidity (money could help you or others in more profitable ventures).Hope that helps.GL
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What river? The way this played, with the stack sizes, it was all or nothing after that flop. I dont think flat calling was an option.
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a) if I were to reraise preflop (he raised to $6), it would have been to $16 to $18 dollars, so by no means would I have just lost $10.B) if he had bet out $10 to $12, I may have been able to let this go. My read said AA or KK, but the overbet made me think TT or JJ, which I was dominating.
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Ok, so $50 NL table.SB PostsBB PostsUTG FoldsHero - Dealt Red QQ - Raise to $2Everyone folds around to BB, who makes it $6Hero CallsFlop Comes 3 Rags (8 high), with 2 Spades.BB leads out with a $16 bet.I go into the tank. Preflop, his range was 66-AA, AJ-AK. Now, I dont think he would overbet the pot with a set (pot has $12.25), so this bet is screaming protection to me. I am certain he doesnt have the spade draw. Really, in my eyes he could have 99-JJ (pocket overpair, but smaller than mine) or KK-AA (dreadful pocket overpairs). I start thinking that there is no way with KK or AA he would bet out this strong. In that situation, I would expect a bet anywhere between 75 and 100% of the pot, but not an overbet. So, with a bad feeling about things, I push.He calls, shows AA, and I miss.Now, did he just outplay me by making an overbet to appear weak, or was this just a case of someone protecting aces trying to make me overpay with what he presumed was a draw? In retrospect, I know my read (specially preflop) was that he was very strong, but I put the pieces together and I just couldnt make sense of his overbet into that board.Any thoughts on my play? Is it just a bad circumstance that most players would go broke with, or am I missing something about the way he played it? Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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22 Hours? What limit do you play at? How many tables?I cleared the Bodog bonus in like 8 hours two-tabling $50 NL. You dont have to clear any refer a friend bonuses. Only the 20% deposit bonus.
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I like the Monte Carlo room, which I havent seen anyone mention yet.
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Part of it is that some pros dont want to spend a ton of hours (in this case several days) only to get eliminated out of the money or to make a small cash. Think opportunity cost. If they can make serious cash in a side game, why not go for broke the first time your dealt QQ or the first time you flop better than TPTK? That way, they are either getting chips and getting serious, or they are on to the next profitable (hopefully) venture. Most players, on the other hand, like to get their moneys worth out of tournaments. I, for instance, would have no doubt that I would fold several hands that are favorites early on, just because if I am playing in the ME, I would like to at least spend some time actually playing. I cant imagine a fate worse than ponying up 10K and losing all my chips in the first orbit or two. You can tell me I am a 60-40 favorite, and I would still let that go because of the dire consequences. Pros, obviously, approach things differently.
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My move, or the buttons?
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The only thing I would have done differently, given the stacks and the fact that you were UTG, is I think I would have only raised to 900 or 1000. Anything higher and you are forceing them to move all-in on you. Once he pushes, I think you need to call. That said, I have lost many a SNG on the bubble by losing a hefty portion of my stack UTG with AQ. Many a SNG. I just cant get away from it. Cant fold it preflop, cant limp and invite the steal, and you raise it and you get yourself in these scenarios. Its got to be played, but it isnt a scenario I look forward to.
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10 started, 5 left, top 3 pay (50%-30%-20%), when the following hand comes up....Blinds at 100/200UTG Goes All-in for 650Hero - Dealt 99 - Reraises All-in for 1150 (figure UTG would go all in with any decent holding to avoid being 1/3 in on BB)Button - Reraises All-in for 1350SB (big stack)- FoldsBB (big stack)- FoldsTwo questions1) Was my isolation all-in over the top the right play? I am almost sure it was, just want to make sure other agree given the scenario.2) The Button, who came over the top of both UTG and Me for all his chips, ended up showing 1010. I got into an argument w/ a friend about this play. Do you think, with 2 all-ins in front of him, that pushing with 1010 and trying to triple up is the correct play? I understand him putting the UTG on a marginal holding (Ax, Kx, Qx, etc.), but I feel like he needed to respect my reraise at this point (I had the tightest image at the table). My friend argues that he had to of figured he was against, most likely, an underpair and an over card or two, so he was correct trying to triple up. Any thoughts?
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I posted this on a prior thread:I've played quite a few Bodog SNG, and here is my take: You start with $1000, and the blinds go up every 10 hands (5/10, 10/20, 15/30, 30/60, 50/100, 100/200, 250/500). So, the way it plays out is this: The structure helps you early, and then as people get eliminated (hands go around faster, so a time interval would be bettter late in the SNG) the structure starts to kill you. Basically, its a 10 person SNG that usually (if you play tight early and look for premium spots to double up only) becomes a 5 person crap shoot. Not hard to make money, but very hard to consistently do well. The worst case, which does happen every so ofter, is a very tight table that sees only 2 or 3 players get eliminated when the blinds hit 100/200 or up. In these cases, everyone is playing with 3 to 5 BB, and its a total luckfest. Another note - I think a lot of the "gamblers" from BoDog's casino have learned and are staying away (or they are just really outnumbered by actual poker players looking for an easy score). The play has improved dramatically over the last two weeks. (more aggressive, a little tighter)
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I follow a similar strategy, and to be honest, it doesnt work well on BoDog.If you fold a lot and only play premium hands, I usually have between 840 and 960 by the time the blinds become 30/60. That give you 10 hands to make a move and try to win a monster pot (which you did in your example). More often then not, you either wont get the cards necessary, or you wont get the action necessary to double up here. Then, its 50/100 and you are short stacked with less than 10 BB. Now, you have 10 hands to make a desperation move, and if it doesnt happen in the first couple, you start looking to steal the blinds. Countless times I have made position raises to get those blinds and have been called with marginal hands (Q10, A9, etc) granted, usually ahead of my steal attempt. So, since they are generally willing to call of chips regardless of image, the only real way to compete if you play tight early is to double up in the 20 hands between 30/60 and 50/100. You go 0 for 20, and your out 4th or 5th. Just a bad structure for the strategy, if you ask me.
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For low limit games, my favorite was the Monte Carlo. Check it out.Oh, and as for the Excalibur, just keep on walking.The 3/6 and the Mirage can be fun, but the players there take it a bit more seriously.
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I've played quite a few Bodog SNG, and here is my take:You start with $1000, and the blinds go up every 10 hands (5/10, 10/20, 15/30, 30/60, 50/100, 100/200, 250/500). So, the way it plays out is this: The structure helps you early, and then as people get eliminated (hands go around faster, so a time interval would be bettter late in the SNG) the structure starts to kill you. Basically, its a 10 person SNG that usually (if you play tight early and look for premium spots to double up only) becomes a 5 person crap shoot. Not hard to make money, but very hard to consistently do well.The worst case, which does happen every so ofter, is a very tight table that sees only 2 or 3 players get eliminated when the blinds hit 100/200 or up. In these cases, everyone is playing with 3 to 5 BB, and its a total luckfest.Another note - I think a lot of the "gamblers" from BoDog's casino have learned and are staying away (or they are just really outnumbered by actual poker players looking for an easy score). The play has improved dramatically over the last two weeks.
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[smaller raise gets the same result, just makes calling the allin tougher. Thats the point man. You dont want to risk your tournament life with 1010 when there is still a lot of poker to playl. You are 2nd or 3rd in chips. Openly accepting any challengers with this hand is just plain foolish. Hands I dont want to see in this situation : AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ. Thats tooooo many hands. I know, I know. Against the two overs we are a small favorite (you know, the 52 to 48 variety), so I should be ok with that, right? Wrong man. Your up against an equal stack. That means, 48 times out of 100, your heading home with 9th or 10th place money. You dont want to be calling all-ins with 1010 unless your short stacked and need to risk things to accumulate some chips. Put simply, I want either a premium hand (not 1010 UTG), or great position so I can outplay my opponents. You want to call me weak for Limp calling or limp folding my 1010 preflop? Fine. Thats your opinion. Just not the way I think this hand should be played under the circumstances.
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Dont waste your time chasing bonuses until you have a bigger roll (the bonus is usually a % of the deposit, and you dont want to waste future opportunities by creating accounts and depositing small amounts).Smash is right on this one. Play a ton of hands and crush the smaller games. If your NL game is decent, the $25 NL tables are crushable anywhere (I would recommend Fulltilt because the somewhat tighter play lowers the variance....good for your limited roll). Although, I wouldnt try those out until you run your roll up to $300 or so first. Seriously, you should be able to claw from $200 to $500 in about a month. Then worry about bonuses.
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I dont like the raise UTG with 10/10. I think its a limp situation. You cant raise any smaller than you did, because your inviting a push, and you dont want to push yourself because it is too reckless and you might run into a big hand (or allow a small stack with two faces to double through you). I think limp is the only way to go. Not a good spot to be aggressive.Now, once the button reraises, I am his range is a) 99, JJ-AA, B) A10-Ak, and c) on a pure steal (unlikely) with Kxs-Axs. Unless he is a maniac, I only see two holdings I want to be up against (99, A10). Even if he is a donk (AJ, AQ), its a coinflip that you dont want to make. You over extended yourself on the raise, and mathematically this may be close to a call, but I let it go and try to get back my chips in a better spot.
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I'm no expert, but I would have played it the same way.After the turn, you cant make any bet smaller than the 14 that puts him all in (he would just reraise the difference and you would have to call). I dont think your getting away from this one in this situation. If you had position, or if he had a bigger stack, then maybe you can get away at some point, but in this scenario, I feel most of us would of met the same result.There are simply too many donks at $25 and $50 NL that are willing to play Ax and play it hard to think about letting this hand go....Any other thoughts?
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Just moved up to 7 after David Chiu's score!
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I understand it. Thats why I play there. I was just making the point that you have to expect a higher variance then normal. Now you STFU and crawl back into whatever bitter shell you came out of.
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BoDog has been good to me, but it is a very high variance site.Just today I had this occur to me in a $50 NL table:Me with KK, opponent with QJcI bet 4 BB preflop, he calls.Flop is three rags, no clubs. He checks, I bet 75% of pot, he calls.Turn is a J. He checks, I bet 80% of pot, he calls.River is a J. He checks, I bet 60% of pot, he flat calls.Goodbye mucho money. Its tough to put up with that stuff, but in the long run, it is very good on my roll.As a warning, I have noticed the NL tables getting tighter in the last few days. There is still usually 3 or 4 juicy tables, but the other 3 or 4 now seem to be too tight for comfort (I am seeing $4-5 pots and 28-32% flop percentages at $50 NL.....no thanks). Anyone else notice the trend?
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Habib owned a significant % of Tuans action. I had previously heard 25%, but in this thread someone claims 50%. Either way, it is openly known that Habib owned some of Tuans action. The real question is whether or not they let the arrangement effect their play (dumping chips, soft play, collusion, etc.). There is no evidence of colusion, there is only one poorly played hand by Habib that can be explained in many ways, one of which happens to be collusion.Paul Phillips had a very interesting blog analyzing this situation. He got into the actual math of Habib's decision (not as obvious as it appears). I suggest everyone check it out before speculating any further.
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Royal, in that case, why pass on the opportunity to be up against a 2/3c steal attempt?I think its a good call. Pot is offering good odds, you need to gamble, and you may triple up if there is another caller behind you.
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Fairly easy hand to play.Only thing I might have done differently is bet $1.50 or $1.75 into the BB.....if he was at all tight, I dont want to risk a fold because of the $2.00 bet (his BB is only $0.25, so he very well might fold). If he is loose, 2 or $2.25 is fine.Turn and River are fine.He two pair you?
best laydown ever?
in General Poker Forum
Posted