econ_tim
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Posts posted by econ_tim
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I agree the play there is pretty tight, but it seems that more loose players are showing up. Has anyone else noticed this? Maybe they have increased their advertising.Also, if you are going to play there, you might as well deposit the full $600 (if you have it). You can withdraw it soon afterwards and will have several months to clear the bonus. On the downside, the bonuses are very slow to clear.
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I edited the above post, but I think I'm tired and giving weak tight advice. A lot of people will call a bet on the flop and fold to a bet on the turn, so betting out is probably OK. If most people are calling stations, you might check the turn.
Am I okay with the bet/fold line?Yeah, you have to fold the turn. Rest looks fine. -
Yeah, I would check the turn, with the plan of calling one bet but folding to two. Rest looks fine.
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Your bets seem kinda large. I would raise maybe $3 preflop. On the flop, it looks like you overbet the pot. I would bet maybe 3/4 of the pot.And, even though you were ahead on the flop, I think you have to fold to the other player's push.
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The only hands I was worried about this guy having on the turn were mid pocket pairs (between 3s and 7s).Ugh...check/fold the turnThree BB isn't worth the info on this guy
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$1/$2 FullTiltPreflop: econ_tim3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, econ_tim checks.Flop: (3.5 SB) [Jh 5d Td]econ_tim checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.Turn: (1.5 BB) [Tc]econ_tim calls.River: (5.5 BB) [As]econ_tim calls.Final pot: 7.5 BBI hadn't played with MP2 before tonight, but his play seemed odd so I had been watching him. He seemed to like to bluff the turn, and I don't think he would slowplay top or middle pair.
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Looks good, although standard reraising hands would have you beat by the turn. But you can't assume you opponent is reraising with the right hands.
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FYI: MP3 had AT osBB had Ks-Ts
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wrto, what do you put MP3 on? And what are you representing with the turn raise? Q-9?
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MP2's betting pattern says he can beat an overpair. I don't know what MP3 is doing cold calling all of those raises. You could check/call turn and river.
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whenever i get mad, i read hellmuth's poetry<----jopke
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This is the biggest pot and most retarded play I've ever seen at the $1/$2 FullTilt tablesPreflop: econ_timUTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, econ_tim calls, SB calls.Flop: (14 SB) [Ac Qs Td]SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB 3 bets, 1 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.Turn: (13.5 BB) [2s]BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, BB 3 bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.River: (25.5 BB) [3h]BB bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 3 bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, MP3 calls, BB calls.Final pot: (37.5 BB)So I was expecting everyon to have KJ.Result: BB shows KQ, UTG+1 shows Q3, MP3 shows KJ.
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Um, pocket pairs aren't exact two cards.For example, pocket Aces can be As-Ah, or As-Ac, etc.But 220:1 are the right odds for a specifice pocket pair, e.g. Aces or Kings.There is a good chance this answer is completely wrong, but i think this may be right.You have a 220:1 to get any 2 excact cardsSo if there are 10 people playing then there is a 22:1 chance that someone has a pocket pair.Someone confirm for me? BS or truth? -
Hand 1: On the flop you've got a gutshot plus backdoor flush plus over card, but the pot is very small. I think you should raise or fold here. Of course you have to call the turn, and I think checking the river is fine.Hand 2: I would cap the flop and raise the turn, and maybe then slow down.Hand 3: Looks good.
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Yang has K
3 
You have 2 6 -
Damn, guess all the pros from the WPT play on FullTilt (sw).$1/$2 FullTiltPreflop: econ_tim1 fold, econ_tim calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB complets, BB checks.Flop: (4 SB) [4h 7d 8s]SB checks, BB checks, econ_tim folds, SB calls.Turn: (5.5 BB) [Qs]SB checks, BB bets, SB calls.River: (7.5 BB) [8d]SB checks, BB checks.Final pot: 7.5 BBSB shows J-J, BB shows JJ.So both blinds were being cute with their Jacks, and they got what they deserved. Later these players tried to make some "fancy plays" on me like raising the turn with mid pair. It didn't make them any money.
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Why do we need the ace of spades?Now, the pot is giving you 4:1 to call this, but you are only a 4:1 favorite against most hands, some you are only a 3.5ish:1 favorite against (mid suited connectors), and you do not have the ace of spades. Do you call him? -
FullTilt $1/$2Preflop: econ_tim6 folds, econ_tim 1 fold, BB calls.Flop: (4.5 SB) [7c 3h Kd]BB checks, econ_tim BB calls.Turn: (6 BB) [9s]BB checks, econ_tim BB folds.Final pot: 6 BBI think the BB had tried to make some plays on me earlier. Plus I thought he might think I was on a blind steal. So I wanted to show him I wasn't afraid to mix it up.
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FullTilt $1/$2Preflop: econ_tim2 folds, econ_tim calls.Flop: (6.5 SB) [8c 9s 7c]BB checks, econ_tim MP3 calls, BB calls.Turn: (4.5 BB) [Js]BB checks, econ_tim MP3 calls, BB calls.River: (16.5 BB) [4c]BB checks, econ_tim MP3 calls, BB calls.Final pot: 19.5 BBMaybe I went a little crazy on the turn, but wasn't too scared of QT. Any guesses as to what the other players had?
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I don't want to belabor the point, but we will lose the hand more than 19 out of 20 times, because most of the time we will fold on the flop. Some of those times we would have won had we stayed in (because of runner runner 7s or something else crazy). But we don't win those times because we folded on the flop.Just under 19 times out of 20 we lose this hand. -
You're right that 5.9% is fixed, so we know the percent we'll win conditional on seeing the a showdown. What we don't know is how much it costs to see a showdown. If we only had enough chips left to complete the small blind, then we could call with anything in this situation. By going all in preflop, we get to see all five board cards. Since no hand has less than a 5% chance of winning, and we are getting 19-1 to call, we can go all it with anything.If we have more chips though, all completing does is let us see the flop. We'll have to make another decision after we see the next cards. Most of the time they won't help us. And, with ten people in, you can be sure the cards will help someone. So there will probably be raising and reraising on the flop. Even if most of the people stick around, we will probably be getting far less than 19-1 to see the turn. And our chances of improving are slim.On the other hand, the flop could help us. In that case, we stay in, but we will probably still have to pay more than one bet to see the turn. Again, we will get less than 19-1 to see the turn.You can repeat the above steps for turn and river decisions.My point is that, while you are getting 19-1 odds to see the flop, the odds the pot lays you to see later streets won't be nearly as good. That is why you might want to fold 72o or 830, etc.So what you're saying is that the 5.9% on 27o is a static, set figure that does not change whatsoever throughout the hand, and since we don't know how much it's going to cost us post flop, we might no longer be getting sufficient odds to play a 5.9% chance of winning? I want to be sure I get your argument correct, 'cause I'm having a tough time following it. -
I disagree. The 5.9% win rate is the amount of times the hand will win conditional on you going to showdown with it. It is hard to tell what price we will have to pay to see the river. Maybe the flop doesn't help us, and we check. The betting is capped by the time it gets back to us, and now we have to call 4 big bets to see the turn. We would probably fold in this situation. What I'm trying to say is that you can't use the 5.9% figure to weigh against the 19-1 odds the pot is laying you.Some posters have argued that any hand could flop quads, a boat, or trips. The odds of this happening are far too small to justify a call, not even after considering the implied odds.Anyway, I don't think you are making a huge mistake by calling with any hand here, as long as you can play it right after the flop.And I might call without looking at my cards just for table image purposes.But I still think calling with the worst hands has negative expected value (not taking into account table image, etc.).
This is flawed logic. If you win 5.9% of the time before the flop, and you're getting odds to call that, you call it. As soon as the flop hits, the odds and your percentages change. If you spike a 10, as in the hypothetical example, your odds go up, and you don't need 19-1 to keep going. If you whiff, your odds go down, and it's an easy fold. You should keep calling as long as the odds/implied odds (nice point on those, BTW) allow you to do so. You should fold at the first point where they don't. It's really quite simple.Check out this table to see the winning percentages of all hands for a ten player Hold'em game. The column "Probability of Win" gives the percentage that a hand will win or tie if all players stay to the river.Note that 7-2, the worst hand, wins 5.9% of the time. This doesn't mean you should complete when the pot is laying you 19-1, however. Some of these wins involve hitting outs on the turn or the river, and you probably wouldn't stick around if the flop didn't hit you. I'm not sure what the right cutoff is, but I would like the win % to bet greater than 8. -
Check out this table to see the winning percentages of all hands for a ten player Hold'em game. The column "Probability of Win" gives the percentage that a hand will win or tie if all players stay to the river.Note that 7-2, the worst hand, wins 5.9% of the time. This doesn't mean you should complete when the pot is laying you 19-1, however. Some of these wins involve hitting outs on the turn or the river, and you probably wouldn't stick around if the flop didn't hit you. I'm not sure what the right cutoff is, but I would like the win % to bet greater than 8.
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3 handed makes for interesting play.Looks good so far, since Button could raise with any A, K, or maybe Q. What is your plan if he reraises?
missed ak
in General Strategy
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