akashenk

irishguy,regarding the draw all-lin, I think you're trying to make an argument for calling all in on the flop when our opponent has a draw (or perhaps going all in in our c/r). I wouldn't necessarily do that for all the reasons I have stipulated previously, but if you have such a tremendous read on him and KNOW he's on the draw, then the math does favor you from an odds standpoint.as far as your bankroll comment, this does bring up an interesting and entirely different subject which we may or may not want to get into. Obviously, we would hope that no one is playing a single tournament with the

I thought the 2-1 discussinon was the debate over whether playing for stacks on the flop agains a draw made sense. There its 1-1, more or less. I don't know where playing the turn for stacks came into it, but ok, on the turn you get 2-1, and if our opponent was on a draw, you're more than 60/40 to win in that situation.. more like 84/16 or 82/18.As for my example, you can't ignore the factor of money, just like in a tournament poker hand, you can't ignore the risk of ruin, or the possible outcome of busting. If what you are saying is, in my example, you would ignore the factor of money, then I

I analyze the draw circumstance because that is what you brought up. Of course there are other things he can have besides a draw. The whole point of this segment of the debate is to discuss the ramifications of him having a draw. Its not to say this play or that is the right play because of how it does against a draw and a draw only.As for your other comments.. first of all, you are never getting 2-1 odds. As someone who is so focused on the math, you should know that. You are either betting or calling for all your chips in order to win an approximately same amount of chips. That's closer to 1

I agree completely with what you say here other than there is a better chance of good things happening for us if we c/c as opposed to c/r.I think the position in the tournament pretty much eliminates any chance of us extracting any more value from worse hand after the flop unlessA) we are wiling to risk our tournament lives by leading the turn orB) we believe our opponent is capable of bluffing the river after a missed draw and we are good (or dumb) enough to call him with our mediocre hand.

irishguy,You say" c r gets us to the river more:1) giving us the chance to win vs draws that don't get there-this is hugely -ev considering we've priced the draws in..2:) giving us the chance to catch up if we are behind-so we raise with our thought process being well if he calls we can go runner runner but then you've stated those times that we do catch up that villain wont put another chip in he pot..."1) this statement is completly at odds with your recommended play. So giving the opponent infinite odds to draw by us caling the flop with the intention of giving him infinite odds on the turn

I gotta repeat, you guys must play against a lot of really bad players if you think there's any chance you will get value from someone you are ahead of in this flop.

If you don't understand the value of winning a small pot in a marginal situation sooner rather than later then you clearly have little understanding of poker in genreal, and tournament poker specifically (particularly with stacks this short). I'm giong to assume you do have some understanding and are just arguing this crazy point for the sake of argument.If I am understanding your argument...you don't want to risk folding out garbage hands like this becauseA) You are counting on the the small chance that they may catch a little something on future streets, but not too much, of course, orB) If

I don't mind folding out hands we beat becasue.. we may not be beating them by the river and are not likely to act aggressively on future streets to prevent that. What is wrong with winning a small pot with a mediocre hand? Isn't that the goal in small-ball?Yes, we are putting more money in.. but very little (only 4K more). Compare that you calling 6K on the turn to try and catch your flush. Or compare that to the ~20K or so our hero put in by making a mistake. My argument all along is the 4K extra is viritually irrelevant from a chip stack size point of view and is worth it because it makes

Forgive me if I didn't expect that. Ok, sorry.. what' you're point? Are you now advocating the c/r strategy? You seemed to complain about us turnng top air into a bluff (thought I don't really think that what we're really accomplishing here) in earlier posts.

I Only say c/c/c is better earlier because the mistakes we make as a result of playing this hand so weakly and having little idea where we stand are less detrimental to our survival earlier, as opposed to this late tournament situaiton. Its not because playing the "let's see what happens" game is fundamentally a better strategy.And I am not advocating that there is HUGE chance that the villain will bluff the turn if we c/c. I am advocating that there is SOME chance he will do so. I am also advocating that he is likely to continue to bet with marginal hands that have us beat and/or draws. All

thanks for providing some in-depth analysis.

I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you're referring to. I would agree that the opponent is likely to bet pretty much anything on the flop after we have forfeited the lead in the hand.

yes, you keep lamenting that. No one ever busts out of tournaments with top pair, 10 kicker. Its practically the nuts.

If its at a late stage in the tournament I will decide based on these criteria... Is my opponent solid or is he bad/crazy.If solid, and if want to really try and win the hand.. then I c/r. if I don't feel that into it, I c/f. c/c would be my third most likely option.If the opponent is bad/crazy I guess I am more likely to c/c becasue I can't take for granted that they will give any thought to my stack size or what I might have in my hand. However in this scenrio, I am in just as much perile of putting all my chips in in a bad or at best mediocre position, so c/f continues to have merit. Our la

mercury, you highlight the difficulty in playing this type of hand the way our orignal poster did. I think it would have made much more sense to go all-in pre flop to try and steal than to make a standard raise and risk having to play poker with such a mediocre hand. If you don't hit the flushy flop, you could be in a world of hurt and you open yourself up to make really hard decisions that could easily end your tournament when it didn't have to end.as far as calling vs folding.. as I have mentioned in the analysis of the other hand, I think folding makes as much if not more sense than calling

Irishguy,You said “A big part of your justification seems to be because you know what the turn is..yes during different stages of tourneys hands play differently. And yes in position villain has more tools but the point is its highly unlikely villain is bluffing/betting a draw here and commiting his stack especially if we've established villain likely puts us on an ace-this would be suicidal.”Actually, with my strategy I don’t care what the turn is, and as long as it doesn’t hit out opponent with some random two pair or straight or flush, I feel we are likely to get a check behind. And if the

you could use all the reading practice you can get so don't look a gift horse in he mouth.

Thanks for the contribution, vu. You are useful.

Actually there's a third reason to bet... a defensive bet, which I think is how our c/r would be categorized. And, AGAIN, I don't think our c/r is necessarily representing a monster.

If we c/r, there's a much smaller chance we'll have to fold the turn, so no, my "entire plan" is not to fold the turn.I'm not asserting the villain is so aggressive, I'm just asserting he has some idea of what he is doing. When in position, players have all sorts of tools at their disposal to win hands and by c/c and checking we leave it open for him to use all of them. By c/r we eliminate some of his options. Just imagine it from his position. I have been told by lots of you that if you held AJ/AQ, on this turn then you would bet it quite often after the c/r. I don't think I would, but surely

I disagree with so much of what you say here, irishguy.1) I mentioned the super computer, because the "math" you are talking about is not as simple as counting outs and figuring odds. The real math of this situation is evaluating huge volumes of permutations which compare the likelihood of our opponent improving by the river and us improving by the river, not to mention calculating the possible actions by our opponent on the turn and river based on what they have and what kind of player they are. In order to do a true mathematical analysis comparing c/c vs c/r you would need a super computer t

This is the most reasoned post you have made on this thread. Perhaps I am rubbing off on you. Anyhow, I wasn't talking about religious oppression and theories. I was simply referring to the fact that the truth today is often replaced by a new truth tomorrow. If hubris holds no valid place in the scientific world, it shouldn't hold a place in the world of poker which is FAR less definitive given the human factors.Now, as to your other points... You say that the c/r , c/c decision may rely on the player we are going against. I completely agree. Maybe the c/r with such mediocre holdings is too tr

Hmm, you and others call people idiots. You joke about how you hope you play against others who think the way I do so you can make more money. I ask you to back your hyperbole and claims up with facts and logic and I'm being smarmy? I'm being condescending? I don't think you know what those words mean.Anyhow, thank you for providing some analysis here. I think it highlights everything you are missing about the merits of the c/r. #2 describes the potential lost value on future streets. It doesn't describe potentially losing chips, perhaps all of them, when the villain catches us from behind at

Well, when I heard you were a history student undergrad, I assumed that you found the field so diverting that you decided to delve even deeper into the subject. Apparently that's not the case. Congratulations on widening your field of interest into more scientific realms. I'm certain it makes you a fascinating conversationalist at parties.As for results, I am quite certain you are far and away ahead of me. I play maybe two or three tournaments a month and almost no cash nowadays. I would guess you have played a billion more hands than I. I assume all this makes you far more rich (at least from

Well, I guess we'll have to wait till you're at a computer in order ot get a reply to my post.As for the math, I'd love for you to show me the equation which describes all of the various outcomes of this hand including those that will determine for us what our opponent will do in all possible situations. I believe the university donk attends probably has a super computer you could get access to to perform the calculation. The results could be enlightening.