Bubba83
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Posts posted by Bubba83
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I liked your line just because I noticed it's a low buy-in turbo. The people who play in turbos are nuts, anytime they see a bunch of dead money they will just shove with anything a lot of times to get the pot heads up with that dead money in it.However, I also agree that this play is generally better in an MTT.Especially when we're on the bubble and we have someone trying to rob everyone blind to act behind us.
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This isn't a flip. Most of the times we are called we are ahead, or sometimes in a direct flip (we're always going to have at least 13 clean outs twice) Also, most of Matros/Phillips theory with big flips early has to do with us being put to the test and why making the call is correct if we are 50/50. I'm not sure I agree with their theory once you factor in how bad the players are, the structure, and tournament entry fees. In this hand, we are the ones pushing so we are putting him to a decision, and he isn't going to have any clue if he's way behind or flipping.Why? I'm assuming because if you think you are way ahead it shouldn't matter that the pot got big? If that's the reason I guess it comes down to at what % do you make the call and when do you pass it up. I've read the Matros, Phillips and all that, but I still disagree with taking big flips.Obviously it's better to have more chips than less, but we just had a decent thread about how an early double should not change your early game except to play tighter.
We don't know that he's not good enough to fold top pair ever. We do now, but we didn't when the decision was at hand. I think the results are probably influencing your "he calls more than 90% of the time" kind of thinking. I disagree that he calls 90+% of the time, but even if we had a read that he calls 90% of the time with hands as weak as top pair (which we don't) I'd still make this shove.He may be a bad player but recognize that he's not good enough to fold top pair ever, so when he gets it he just puts the pedal to the metal. So when he bets 600, to me, he's saying we are playing for all my chips. I think there is close to no FE and he's putting you to a decision for all of your chips by only betting 600. It seems silly here, but this is another example of someone good at post flop play, he risks his stack vs your stack at the expense of much fewer chips. Although I would agree he probably did it accidentally. I think the shove is a "big call" because I think his stack is going in 90+%ish of the time. -
Is a player who just led out 4x the pot on the flop going to ever slow down on the turn? With our read on him, it doesn't seem like it. The only way I could see him slowing down is if:( A ) He had the lead preflop and was making some ridiculous c-bet with nothing.This isn't the case here.( B ) The flush card hits.We don't want him to slowdown if this happens, because unless we have implied odds, our call on the flop was quite bad.When all is said and done, I like moving all-in > fold > call.
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This sucks. Also, you might be surprised how often some donk actually calls your push here with the naked As and nothing else. Then you're really screwed.
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I like just calling from the blinds with AK if our stack is a good size. Leading for 3,000 on that flop seems about right, as per copernicus' suggestion. If LP moves in though I have no idea what I'm doing. It would come down to my read on that players postflop play. You said he is tight, but did that mean just preflop or postflop as well?Some of the questions I normally ask myself when my hand is strong but I might lay down are...Would he push all-in on a draw? (not likely here since it would only be a gutshot)Is he observant enough to know how strong my bet was?Would he raise all-in with just top pair?Is he capable of making this play with air?It would also be important to know for this hand the way it played out preflop, what kind of hands he calls a raise with in position. Would he call with a somewhat poor ace even though a tight player raised up front? Would he re-raise a hand like AQ QQ or 88, or just call?
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Folding because you feel uncomfortable without being able to control the pot size is a really shitty reason to fold. We aren't playing Daniel Negreanu small ball poker in the Bellagio week long $25,000 WPT event here, we're playing an MTT online with a regular structure. I never find myself thinking "I can pass up this hand because I only have 60% equity and I think I can get my chips with better equity later" with structures like this. The only time that kind of thinking could be alright is when the pay structure starts to become apparent in our decisions. This is early in an MTT where it would be very advantageous to double, or just pick up the pot and have most people covered."That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO." I don't understand this at all. The play I was suggesting along with a ton of other posters was to move all-in on the flop, not call. It would be atrocious to just call his flop bet. If we were making a big call early on a big guess as you seemed to skew it, then I would have to agree that folding is a better play, but that isn't the situation we have here at all.
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I should change the y-axis of my theoretical graph to be the maximum variance from the expected as expressed in a percentage, then the graph would make sense.
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Why do you think being a good postflop player means being a passive postflop player?
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At least you had 16 outs twice. Maybe 15 if he had a club.
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If we were to graph results, let's say...We had the x-axis labeled as number of flips, and the y-axis labeled as the maximum variance from the norm during those flips, would the graph look similar to this?
How could we then add the number of total people participating with that amount of flips to the graph to show how it affects the curve? -
What did he insta-call you with?
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For the last time, we aren't gambling, we're trying to pick up his huge overbet by moving in. Everyone is saying the pot isn't large enough to fight for. What are you talking about? There isnt 150 in the pot there is 750 in the pot where 600 of that is coming from someone who overbet with a high possibility of a weak hand that will not call a push. The read is that he overbets like this way too often with unsavory hands.This gives us so much Fold Equity that it makes it very worth it to shove. He doesn't even have to fold often for us to have value here.
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UTG is going to be in for 1/3 his stack on the big blind next hand. What I'm curious to know is, is the SB or BB from this hand savvy enough to be pushing him in with any ace or king next hand? If so, I think the best play here is to fold preflop. If your read on the blinds is that they aren't going to push the shorty in with any Ace or King high next hand, then limping is probably better, but if one of the bigger stacks raises 3x or more out of the blinds I fold preflop for fear of domination.
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I don't even think he calls our push here very often if he's been overbetting a lot with top pair bad kicker or middle pair, so most times, we're not gambling.
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I don't think so. It looks more like a 10 with a bad kicker to me, since we initially bet out.What hand 3-bets the flop in that spot and then checks a non diamond turn that isn't a flush draw? Are there any? A 10 when a king comes on the turn? Maybe... The only other hand that's worth 3-betting on the flop out of position like this is a set or two pair, which wouldn't be checking any turn unless it was the 8 5 two pair with the 10 hitting the turn.I'd proceed with caution, although I think calling/checking a non-diamond turn looks more like a flushdraw than 3bet/checking. -
That's not really true. As long as you know how to play in this situation and take the pot away enough times when you miss, it's still very worth it to be calling preflop even when you don't hit anything.Whether you decide you will take the pot away when the flop doesn't hit you usually depends on board texture and how you think it would have affected his hand.You can make up good flops for every hand. You may as well have 72 and hope the flop comes 22A. You are OOP with a weak hand against a preflop aggressor, He doesnt need a hand to win this pot and you do, most of the time he takes your money without a fight and this makes you the value in the game. There is no way you can play this hand for a prodit over the longer term with the reasoning you have given. If you are playing these hands to try and hit big flops OOP then you have misunderstood the fundamentals of NL holdem. -
My friend and I were assuming every player played optimally and their play styles had no bearing whatsoever in their results.
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Without reading replies...I don't like the flop 3-bet. I realize you're trying to get value now, but I think it's bad due to having to act first on the turn. When you don't hit a favorable turn card, your hand becomes extremely transparent using this line. I think if you just call the raise on the flop you get nearly as much value by probably having the 2 that folded in this hand call instead. The only other reason to reraise would be to clean up outs which I don't see what kind of outs we're cleaning up here.On the turn: Whether it was played the way I suggested or the way you played it, I think a check/call line is definitely in order.Edit: After reading responses... I'm a little surprised no one else commented on the flop play. Am I to understand you guys liked the 3-bet here on the flop? If you did like it, tell me why!
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I absolutely nailed this one.From my original post:
I think it's close between checking and betting 50% of the pot. Our flop bet is so weak that I think he calls with any hand he has. The Grinder will make the call to try and slow us down if we missed so that he might be able to pick it up on the turn. Since the turn makes the board fully rainbow, I think the best choice would end up being check, because I doubt The Grinder is coming over the top of a 50% pot bet that often without a hand that beats us. We are out of position against a great player who also has a large stack, so I think this is a very risky situation, which suggests we should play it carefully the whole way through, that's why I picked check.The reason I think he won't be so quick to pounce on a 50% pot bet on the turn is that with the WPT final table structure he would probably be commiting most or all of his chips if he makes the raise, despite the fact that you guys are two of the biggest stacks.I think the bigger question for me is what to do after we check, what's our line? If he checks behind we are going to want to value bet the 50% of the pot on the river I would assume. But what happens when we check and he bets 50% of the pot? Are we raising? Raising puts us in a pretty tough spot if we're beat, since we would have commited a lot of chips with this line. I guess we'd be check/calling the turn and then doing god knows what on the river...If we check, he bets 50% of the pot, and we call, do we donk-value bet the river? Or just check/call again? -
I'm with gobears on this one, the extra information makes it an easier push. He will likely fold to our bet if he has played a lot of unsavory hands this way. For all the people saying we could sit back and wait for a big hand to bust a guy that overbets like this, it is MUCH more likely that someone else at the table is going to get that chance before we do.
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You surely have an edge with a suited ace here against the 2 remaining players, but this isn't a cash game. As soon as you include the stack sizes and pay structure into the equation it changes the situation dramatically. I'm not quite sure how to show the math properly though, so we might have to wait for a copernicus post for that.
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If you want advice on which books to buy, you should really be including what games you are interested in. Limit Hold'Em? No-Limit? A different game? What stakes? If you're not sure what you'd like to play the best book you could buy is certainly Super System 2. Super System 1 just isn't suited for todays players, though I do love the book.
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Some people get a little carried away preflop in blind battles. His min re-raise doesn't necessarily mean he has a big hand. The call preflop is fine. Also, If you're going to check raise this flop and represent a jack, you need to bet the turn. But, I don't think I like the check raise on the flop to begin with. Since he re-raised preflop it's quite likely he has a decent pocket pair and isn't going to lay down to our check raise here anyway.I would have rather led the flop to see if he raises.As played, I don't check the river as I think he checks behind here a lot with AA/AK/QQ/TT, when we could be getting good value by betting.It's very likely we have the best hand now that we've made our flush, so I'm looking for some value on the river by betting like $120.
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Thanks, that helped.Also, when running 100 players with 50,000 flips each using the program, I never got a single player flipping heads or tails more than 25,250 times. I ran it like 10 times. Why does standard deviation allow for it to deviate to 25,700? How does the math work to show that? Which figure is more correct? Why?
Flopped Big Draw Early
in Tournament Play
Posted
I was going to say the same thing.I get carried away easily going back and forth when I'm mostly just posting the same stuff over and over in different ways.