
stinkypete
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Posts posted by stinkypete
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"LOL", indeed. QQ was precisely what he had. And 5-handed, AA isn't impossible either, with the villain trapping & deciding he's not letting go of them no matter what. (Which, in this case, would've worked out just fine.)What, have you not played poker in a few months or something? Have you ever even played Rush?You think AA is remotely possible? QQ too? LOL
Oh. Apparently not.I haven't played poker in a few months, and I haven't played 5nl Rush ever, but I have a very hard time believing that the game has evolved in such a way that AA/QQ are believably played this way.
Yeah. Feel free to charge all you like for two hands that don't make it to the turn anyway. You really think AQ calls a flop bet? And you think QT is even AROUND for the flop? Sometimes, perhaps. But I can guarantee you that QQ is sticking around past the flop of three undercards 100% of the time. And a defensive bet on the river makes no sense after the turn raise.Because of the bolded, this river is the nuts. When villain bets $1 into $6, it looks like a blocking bet. So if he has a butchered FH, good for him, but I'm charging him the max for when he has QT and some random shit like AQ.
Tell me, why is it necessary that if QT and AQ is in the range that they're that much more likely than the set? 'Cuz 56% is a stupid-ass number if they're not? An overpair to the flop that doesn't have the kings beat becomes a stronger possibility after the check-call on the flop. So do 2's, 3's, and T's.And why does any of this matter? It's not a question of folding on the turn or the river, it's a question of calling the value-bet or shipping on the river. And hoping you get called when you're not beat. Which probably ain't happening more than 50-65% of the time by QT/AQ anyway. What's that do to the 56%? Perhaps you should also assert KQ and QJ is plausible as well. Would that make your number go higher?By the way. "retardedly" isn't a word.If we assign him TT/22/33/QT, and I'm discounting QQ because this is the stupidest ass way anyone could ever play QQ, then we're 56% on the river. I assume he is never folding for when we raise, and I say that's a fair assumption. Give him QQ and we're 47%, but surely if he's capable of playing QQ this retardedly then he can have a hand like AQ sometimes, too, in which case our equity is tremendous. -
Your mistake's simple. You got value-bet and raised him on the river. The right move is to smooth-call on the river, pay him off, and lose half as much money. Shit, you lose LESS than half: $4.25 vs. $9.25. Here's why:1. Ask yourself, what's villain going to limp-call with pre-flop? It's not a (totally) insane move to limp-call with queens preflop just for pot control in rush, which is assumed to be crawling with retarded maniacs. Frankly, my read pre-flop's going to be a small pair, and I'd be more worried about the 23T than the Q that eventually falls.2. If you think you're beat on the turn, (and I have to at least give you credit - I might make the mistake of jamming it all-in on the turn, in Rush, at least,) then the range of hands that beat you on the turn contain an awful lot of stuff - sets - that still have you crushed. And all of them became more likely when you get check-called on the flop, primarily because all the two-high-cards-AK-AQ-KQ-QJ hands would have gotten the @#$% out of dodge.3. The raise by the villain on the turn's a little small. If you're going to look for indications and tells, a raise of only 60% of the pot size on the turn probably means he's hoping to get called.4. The villain's bet on the river should also have warned you. It STINKS of a value bet, putting in less than 18% of the pot size. If you're getting value-betted, why would you raise, given that you haven't really improved on the river?
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This depends a lot on your evaluation of UTG: Is he a tight player? Would he raise UTG and then call a third bet with 7's or 4's? Is he willing to raise with a nut flush draw? How creative is he?If UTG is very tight he could have the following hands:77AsKsAQAAKKJJTTThe last 4 possibilities are only if the turn convinced him you missed.If he's more creative, he could also have:KQ (he's making a play, figuring he's the only guy with a set.)44In most of these hands you're the favorite, even though the most likely hands for him to have are 44 and 77.Raise the turn, and call on the turn (and the inevitable river bet,) if he 3 bets. If he calls the turn bet out on the river. There's just too many hands he can have that lose to AQ: He could've trapped & then be throwing a temper tantrum with JJ or (as the trips fell,) KK. He could be making a continuation bet on the turn only because he capped the flop. 30% chance you're losing to 7's full, 10% that you're losing to 4's full, but the rest of the time you're in terrific shape. (Those are brown numbers.)P.S. - If he raises the turn I say you only call and then call the river, because at that point I think your odds are < 50%. You still have to call. And the calls assume, of course, that you miss on the river. If you fill up go nuts!
Is This A Cooler? Or Does The Turn Raise Tell Me He Has A Better Hand
in No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
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