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Posts posted by HighwayStar

  1. If you need to ask then you aren't ready.


    Online, netting $2k a month off $2500 is possible but I wouldn't recommend it with no real prior experience. You may be profitable on an individual table but that's just one of many skills you need to master. You need to be able to multitable, game select, control tilt, put in a lot of hours whilst maintaining a high standard of play and much more. These things can take months or years to master. You can't just jump into doing a thing like this.


    Number of hands wise..100k gives a decent idea but in reality you need 500k+ to really know what your winrate is at a given limit. This can also change over time.


    No idea about live earning potential but I doubt it's possible to consistently earn an amount of money due to the small number of hands you can get in.


    Playing on the side with a job is a great idea. Maybe in 2 years you'll be fully equipped with the relevant skills.

  2. This kinda crept up out of nowhere. Starts Monday 29th at 4:47pm Vegas time. Ends sometime on Tuesday.





    I'll run a buy a player with the same method as the Big One FT from earlier this year : http://www.fullconta...1


    You get to buy a player for a shot at $100. The more likely the player is to win (according to betfair at 10am GMT on Sat 27th Oct), the more you have to pay to have a shot. It will be winner take all for whoever has the player that wins the event. Post in this thread to claim a player and ship the relevant amount to Blue Baboon (United Kingdom) on Pokerstars.


    Only open for people who can send on Pokerstars.


    Open to 2 players per person. May open it up to more later.


    Player Prices:


    Jesse Sylvia - 43.9 mill - $19.81 - rcgs59

    Greg Merson - 28.7 mill - $17.97 - rcgs59

    Jacob Balsiger - 13.1 mill - $6.26 - Mr. Sparco


    Russell Thomas - 24.8 mill - $12.77 - FCP Bob

    Andras Koroknai - 29.4 mill - $15.16 - HighwayStar

    Robert Salaburu - 15.2 mill - $8.09 - mrpaddyx

    Michael Esposito - 16.3 mill - $7.47 - FCP Bob

    Steven Gee - 16.9 mill - $6.93 - mrpaddyx

    Jeremy Ausmus - 9.8 mill - $5.54 - HighwayStar


    Total - $100


    Betfair odds at time of posting :


  3. Doing some more work out of boredom.


    If you say CO raise/calls and jams what I said above (which is what I think is close to optimal jam range with his stack)...then you are 30.6% against the calling range.


    ...pen and paper maths....leads to he needs to fold more than 59.88%! Exactly what you said...heh


    So to shove ATo, his total CO steal needs to be greater than 6.8% (raise/call) + 8.1% (shove) + 10.2% (raise/fold) = 25.1%



    According to Pokerstove the 25.2% percentile hand ~A7o/J9s/T8s so if he's raising more than that ATo should be good to shove....pretty near to what I had in the last post.

  4. You see him raise fold a 12 bb stack a lot but don't think he'll raise fold an 18bb stack when opening from the CO?

    I think I know the kind of player you're talking about and I'd be really surprised to find ATo isn't profitable shove there.


    Do you see him jamming 18bb here very often?


    (edit - nm see you're talking about a different player and also answers the jamming thing)


    When you're talking about 3 betting do you mean shove or making it 6x here?


    I think abig factor in working out the CO's range here is the BB. The BB is sitting there with 13bb and should be shoving fairly often. It would be a mistake to open too wide into an aggro BB, but if the BB is on the tighter side you could probably get away with opening quite a large range herein the CO.



    but...if he's opening strong and weak I think you're going to find far more weak from your description/my experience of what I think are probably similar players.


    Raise/call : 77+,AJs+ ,AJo+ :6.8%

    Jam: 66-22,ATs-A8s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo-A9o,KQo : 8.1%



    You said he needs to fold 60% then he needs to have (6.8*60/40)% = 10.2% of combinations in a raise/fold range for you to move in with ATo


    I get A7s-A6s,K9s-K7s,Q9s-Q8s,J9s-J8s,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o,KJo-K9o,QTo+,JTo to be 10.3% and I imagine a lot players like this are opening much much wider than that if they think they can get away with it.


    I would say the answer to the problem is to jam/3bet these players more. Once oyu see someone with a 40% CO steal over even 100 hands he's going to be folding more than often enough to move in on him with hands like this.


    Bit of a cluster**** of a post and certainly not the easiest way to figure this out. Hopefully it makes some sense.

  5. If there is an actual answer to this then its probably the opposite of what you say.


    Your variance is a function of you and your opponents playing styles and your winrate. The more loose aggressive you and the other players are, the more variance there will be. The lower your winrate, the higher variance you will experience. In general, you're more likely to have a lower winrate and run into more loose aggressive players at higher limits so variance increases with stakes.


    Play at low limits, whilst unpredictable, is far more likely to be a version of a loose passive style than anything else.

  6. Yeah if a decent tight player (really need a fair few hands with someone to be sure of this) on a 11-14 BB stack opens instead of shoving in EP their range is v strong. Easy fold in MP and really close from button/blinds. It's really not close vs some, their ranges can be QQ+.I wouldn't get into a habit of folding it in this spot though, only vs specific players.Also there are a ton of spots on bubbles of SnGs where it's correct to fold it to raise or even just open fold it.

  7. With the stack to pot ratio left on the turn there is no need to do anything but shove. He has 2300 left with 4400 in the pot. No need to worry about any more of his actions.If you do bet and get shoved on you're going to be getting about 8 million : 1 to call so it would be absurd not to.If you were somewhat deeper this would be an interesting turn spot. If he had 5000+ behind you could consider all options on the turn.

  8. Lies. I assumed you retired after the binking the milestone :)btw I'm now positive Royal Tour got a second account.
    Grinding tons and tons of hyper turbo sngs with MTTs on the side. Love me some variance and rakeback.
  9. The wisdom piece which you are completely lacking is the understanding that no amount of experience and knowledge and success is going to make you right in a single hand of poker, particularly when you are discussing the hand in the vacuum of a message board.
    Why? You can fairly easily "solve" an awful lot of tournament hands (mostly preflop spots, all in calls and river calls) mathematically and conclusively work out which play is best. In this exact hand it would be very time-consuming..For situations like this, you can break down your opponents ranges, apply good tournament fundamentals and use past experience to come up with a damned good answer most of the time. Whilst it may not be the best play vs everyone, it is the best you can make with the information you have available (in this case, not very much). There are some spots which are really close (I would argue with this one not so much) where there isn't much between decisions and your action doesnt matter much since the expectation from it is going to be pretty similar.I only skipread the first few pages of this thread but it looked to me that the discussion was fairly respectful, at least until the discussion started going around in circles.Yes it can get a bit circlejerky but that's just the nature of an online forum. I really don't think it's been too bad in here at all.Anyway this hand has seriously been discussed to death and everyone is entitled to their opinions. I really don't see what can be added at this point.
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