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Posts posted by jsagan77

  1. Take a look at some of the guys that played on PS and now switched to FTP. I know gutshtallin has and he's been destroying FTP since. Honestly I hate online poker. I play much worse online than I do live but so do most people IMO, especially at lower levels. There aren't as many great players online as people think there are but i guess in reality the cream rises to the top just like any other profession. Onto my analysis...Some things that i've been tracking in poker tracker have really started to develop a trend. I win 80 percent of my AA hands. 81.24 actually, however when the money is in pre flop and I have less chips I only with 54.32% of the time. With KK, same thing. I win only 47.98% of the time in the same situation and half of those beats are from Ax hands. Pretty striking after 200k hands, eh?Some other things I noticed in this thread about guys having 4 months runs of good or bad luck. That's variance but it's anomalistic. Having a run like that, good or bad, isn't common and should be looked at like the rest of the problems that people find with online poker. Who knows if it's rigged? I don't, but I know what I notice and it isn't a matter of variance. I even get pissed when I pull a 3 outer on someone because it seems to happen every other hand. Then you'll see it a couple hands later. To me, regardless of how many hands you see per hour, it's way too often. If you don't see it then you're either not looking for it, or you're the one doing it and have selective memory. I remember the times I suckout and I also remember the times i've been sucked out on, as well as the times my hands hold up. The reality of it is that my hands don't hold up nearly enough so i'm pretty pissed and am done playing there...

  2. I look down at any 2 cards on the bubble and I raise. If I only had any luck to see AA not once but 3 times, there is a good chance that bubble guy would have been out as soon as he tried for the resteal. There are always more hands but if you are a 70-80% favorite to double up 3 times around bubble time, jesus christmas you need to take it... WTF was wrong with this guy. Even if he wins you shouldn't fold that ****...

  3. I know you only asked about the river call but I just want to give my .02 about the whole hand.Turn bet:I would have bet $2k on the turn. This has the same effect that the $3k bet had, but it saves you $1k if you get called and miss. Then again if your betting patterns haven't been consistent with this then that might change things... I rarely make pot-sized bets, but that's just me - but it is for the same reason (saves me $$ in the long run, IMO)His call:If he is as tight-passive as you say (after all, you put him on a hand as strong as top two), I would have put him on a made hand OR a higher flush draw, and I would have been concerned about possibly drawing dead.The river:Once the spade hit and paired the board, I would have checked to him. Now he might move all-in and you can (maybe, hopefully) get away from the hand, or if he's smart he'll value-bet-"bluff" (pause a little and then make a value-bet that looks to you like a bluff) and you might have to pay off a bet of $5k or so.I'm trying not to be results-oriented in this evaluation but I'm sure I am to a degree.Anyway, when I am at a final table and I am involved in a hand, I usually try to have the nuts or nothing at all. This leads to easy decisions if I have one of my bets raised behind me. A Q-high flush on a paired board against a too-tight, easy-to-read opponent is a tough spot to be in at a final table when you are so close to the top few spots.Having said all that, in the heat of the moment I probably would have gone broke too, lol. Hope this was helpful in some way.
    I think you are exactly right. I should have checked because it could have saved me a lot of money. However, I believe that the blinds were very high at this point being 8 handed and it was still necessary to collect chips.
  4. $80 buy in tourney, 8 players left out of 22, 4 get paid. The average stack is about 12k, small stack is 7k I had 2nd most chips with 20K. Blinds 500-1000, i'm in the big blind, tight passive player in middle position calls folds around small blind calls and I check with Q2 of spades. (My image is tight agressive) FlopKs 10h 4cChecks aroundTurn 6ssmall blind checks I lead out with a pot size bet of 3k, tight passive calls (I automatically think K10 suited)River 10sAgainst my better judgement I bet 5k at a 9k pot, the tight agressive guy postures, moves all in for 5400 more. Of course I call and he shows K10c. Breaks me down to 4k and basically leaves me crippled. In hind sight I should have changed gears and went with my initial read of K10 and saved a lot of money. I even said to myself "if the 10 of spades comes off you are releasing your hand." I know that I should have played this hand different and my only question is "Should I have folded after he postured and went all in knowing I was beat or do you call just for the sake of pot odds?" I think that I was a lot better player before I learned about Pot Odds simply for the fact that I would have folded there. Just wondering what you all think.

  5. I can't tell if this post is ironic or not. Are you seriously comparing the racial discrimination blacks have faced through out this country's history with having to wait a long time for a psp? Are you really? The backlash of a marginalize and colonized people with the discrimination of black people? I'm.. just stunned, absolutely stunned tht you're so insensitive to racism that you'd compare waiting a long time for a psp with the plight of african-americans in this country. You're naivety and ignorance shock and disgust me. There are people in this country who's brothers, sisters, mothers fathers, husbands and wives were lynched, for the color of their skin. There are people, still alive, who had to drink at separate drinking fountains, attend separate schools, and were denied the right to vote. THis isn't something in our ancient history. I'm done talking with you on this subject, your idiocy is too much for words...If your post was ironic, well, you got me, hook line and sinker.
    Well thousands maybe even millions of women were lynched and crucified but they have to get over the "track down witches and destroy them thing". I'm not insensitive to discrimination or any race, i'm insensitive to people putting so much energy in keeping discrimination alive (including whites). Of course it will always exist and yes it will cause people to act certain ways but what is the point of living in the past and holding grudges for your ancestors? That would be like me being pissed off because Jesus was crucified and hating the nationality that killed him. Either way man discrimination sucks but why wine about it? People are going to be racist and some are going to think so lightly of it that they will poke fun at it. Just because people don't like it doesn't make the poking "Not Right". It may be politically incorrect but who cares, he ain't running for office. This country is all about free speach, so if Daniel wants to do skits and say off the wall stuff-he can. If you don't like it then don't comment. And my post wasn't ironic, it was metaphorically forward. The way I am discriminated against here is no where near the way black people were discriminated against, but it is the same principle.
  6. Of course he is white. White folks have been saying this for years. I am sorry, but if you are not a person of color you truly do not understand racial discrimination. I am not crying about it and I don't use it as an excuse or crutch. I understand that I have to work harder and be better than my peers in order to get the same promotions and salary and I just DO IT! That's the way it is and hey, I do what I need to do. That does NOT mean that I have closed my eyes to ****. And quite frankly if I am offended by Daniels black face then that is my right. Do I automatically label him a racist because of it -- no, not really. But I wonder just how close he really is to his so called black friends that he doesn't see how this could be offensive.By the way, I think this is an interesting topic and wish folks could discuss it without being disrespecful.
    Whatever, I live in Hawaii and I lived in Guam before here. All the local people discriminate just as much as whites do. They hold things against you that you have no power over and you have to make friends with people in order to get your car fixed correctly! You should have seen how long it took me to get a PS3 because they would get shipments in at best buy and they would tell all the white guys that they were out. I had to get one of my local friends to go down and get me one. Discrimintation is everywhere and it happens to everyone-not just for people of color..
  7. Not irrelevant at all. It's very easy for someone of the majority race to dismiss people for "black vs white stuff". It's probably alot harder for someone who has been a victim of racism to do so.
    What are you talking about? You don't think that white people are discriminated against? Get real man. Everyone can be the victim of some sort of stereo-type or racist mental/physical attacks. You can be discriminated against for the color of your skin, the way you look, how much money you make, your sex, where you live, where you came from, what you do for a living; there are tons of things people put up with that they shouldn't have to. One of the best remedies for the hate discrimination creates is to laugh at the cause or situation and accept the things you can't change and be the bigger person.
  8. Slavery ended a long time ago, you all that are obsessed with the black vs white stuff should be ashamed of yourselves. IF there is is still black opression this is exactly the reason why. People too proud of their harritage that they are willing to demote hours of time defending useless ideologies. Put your time to good use and make the world better instead of bringing up old useless things to fight about. Black face, White face, Yellow face, who cares? Seriously, there is no superior race just inferior people. You better get over it because like I said this is the reason opression may exist today-because people can't forget the past and focus on the future. Let it go, he didn't mean anything by it.

  9. Well, Online poker is exactly as random as live poker. See, online poker decks are shuffled by algorithms that rely on random number generators. These generators aren't 100% random in that they are still generated by a computer. It is extremely hard though to forsee what the next number will be. In live poker a dealer shuffels the cards. This is not random since his precise actions produce a shuffled deck. This is still not random, but it is so hard to predict what the next card is that it is considered random.
    Dictionary.com1. proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers. 2. Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen. So a dealers deal is completely random, and the only reservation I have with random number generation is that a computer can only do what it is told to do. It processes data and creates it logically from protocols. I'm sure that there is a way to make it random, but I doubt that the technology we are using is 100%, even if it 99.9999999% the variation is so vast that a miscalculation over billions of hands can make companies millions over time. I do agree with the other posters about the lack of physical data in the online world making it harder to be as consistant as live play, not that there isn't money to be made online (there is tons) I just think that you need to play the averages and a lot more hours to make a descent living. More power to you if you are an online pro because i believe it would take a ton of dicipline and resolve to handle those types of beats and continue to win.
  10. Hi everyone, and Hi Daniel (my poker guru) ...As we all know online gaming, or online poker, is HUGE. The number of players online at any given time is just crazy. 40,000 players at once, a lot of money on the tables, it's crazy. But is it good for poker? Yes, it made the game mainstream, we have a lot more players, a lot more money in tournamants, poker is on TV, poker is online, poker is everywhere. We have close to 70 million players in the USA, we can play with pro's, and what not, but is it really good for poker?Based on Daniel's blogs, I don't think he is the biggest online poker fan, and same here. I lost a lot of money online (ok, not a lot, around 2000$ and then I stopped), while I made A LOT of money live (a lot is, making a living), where I think it's the TRUE poker game. Why I don't do well online? maybe because it's rigged, or I play 5 tables at once ... Why do I feel there are a lot more bad beats? maybe because I play so many hands, or because online is not 100% random.So I would love to see what you guys think about this topic, and especialy Daniel, because I feel, that not like many pro's, Daniel agrees online might be a problem for poker, rather than the big key for what we got today. I also felt that when Daniel was on Full Tilt Poker, and most of the pro's (phil ivey mainly) where really excited about online, while Daniel was looking to talk about the "REAL STUFF".Don't get me wrong, without online poker, poker wouldn't be SO huge, but the way it's done, and the way people play online poker, might not be great for what poker really is.That's my OPINION ...
    I'm with you, for some reason I win a lot more live than online (probably the tells aspect) however, I am getting better at online play. I won't risk a lot of money online because of the fact that I don't trust random number generation software. In theory it is correct but can a computer ever be %100 accurately random? I don't know enough about the actual programs to make a general exclamation but I know enough about various other products to assume that they can be influenced in a number of different ways to make the online casino's more money. Some of the glaring weaknesses I've seen in some of the recent gambling software is small pairs beating out bigger pairs more regularly they should (again only my assumption, this could only be backed up with statistical data) and the timing of all in type hands. Have you ever noticed that when a 9 person SNG is down to 4 that the shorter stack will lose an all in a lot more often than a big stack will? Miracle 3 outers, small pairs beat big pairs, runner runner flush/strait. Most of these "bad" calls are what you want in a normal circumstance but how many of these horrid suck outs can you see before you get so frustrated that you put down the mouse for good? People will argue, "what would onilne poker sites have to gain if they were to skew hands so that these crazy suckouts occur more often?" Well that is easy, the more tables they fill the more money they earn; the less time it takes for a tourney to complete the more tournies they can have in a day. Over time this will add up to a great deal of profit for the company, which to me, relates back to why these companies are in business, to make money.I know this can be debated because of the lack of statistical data, but this is my opinion based on what I observe. I'm not saying it is right but it is what I think could be a possibility of why so many good players find it hard to make money playing online.
  11. Maybe what Phil thinks that Erick thinks is only what Phil thinks and is not what Erick thinks at all. That has led us to think about what Erick thinks and think that Phil only thinks he knows what Erick thinks and doesn't care what we think. Daniel may think that Phil doesn't think too much of Erick, but I think Erick doesn't really care what Phil thinks, because Phil really has no idea what Erick thinks.
    Ya think? lol
  12. I don't know, I'm kinda new here but I think that each party has a point. DN has to stand up for his boy if he thinks PG is wrong (because that's what good friends do)and Phil has to stick to his guns if thats what he truly believes. I guess in the end we have to realize that in the grand scheme of things it is all irrelevant. Both E-Dawg and Gordon are opposite end of the spectrum type players and are probably pretty comfortable with their style of play. Lets face it, they have made a very good living cashing in tournaments, beating cash games, writing books and teaching the game to less talented individuals. I wish I had that job...lol

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