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MrNiceGuy

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Everything posted by MrNiceGuy

  1. Certainly you should be jamming on the flop, as you did, with 12 outs twice (I suppose we could discount to 11 outs, since it's possible you could make a flush and lose, or make a straight and split or lose; although at this point, for all we know your J or even your 9 outs could also be good). Still you easily have more than 33% equity against villains' ranges, so jamming is correct.On the turn, worst case is it gets capped (which is what happened) and you get 13-4 pot odds to call. If you have 11 outs, you'd want about 3-1 to call, so you're getting the right odds to call even if you could
  2. My default play with KQs,o and KJs,o is to open UTG.In an incredibly soft game, where the A-rag hands, small PPs, and suited connectors are likely to call 2 cold, and where hands like offsuit 1-gappers, K-rag, and Q-rag will limp behind, and where my opponents are poor postflop, I might opt to limp in with these hands (particularly the suited hands).If the opponents behind are for the most part good players, and the blinds are tough and aggressive, I might opt to fold KJo UTG.
  3. The event flyer reads(Link is from the WSOP site):http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/structur...nt/Event25.html---------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIS IS A NEW EVENT FOR THE 2006 WSOP2005 Event was a $1,500 Buy-In 789 EntriesWINNER ANTHONY REATEGUI $269,100General Rules * Tournament is limited to 100 tables, (11 Handed Max). * Players will be seated randomly. Some tables on Day 1 may have 11 players per table. * Players will begin with $2,000 in Tournament Chips. * All levels of play will last 60 minutes. * There will be a 15 minute break
  4. Other than bluffs or semibluffs, the hands that make the most sense for villain are K7, K3, KQ, KJ, and possibly AK. (If villain is a habitual slowplayer, we could add KK, AA, TT, 77, 33, and T7 to the list.) Out of those, I think KQ, KJ, and K3 probably make the most sense (I'd expect K7 to lead the flop). KQ,KJ = 24 hands, K3 = 4 hands. So I like screech's line vs. an unknown; call the turn, raise/call a safe river. (I wouldn't raise an A river, because I'd be a bit afraid of QJ, and because if villain is bet-calling an A river, there's a good chance he has more than just a K).But if vi
  5. Hand 1 I could see check/fold, check/call, or even check/raise on the river, depending on the opponent and how you read his flop raise.Hand 2 the flop 3-bet makes no sense unless you're going to follow up on the turn. But I'm not sure why we're in hand 2 at all- Unless I think button is stealing with virtually any 2 and he sucks postflop, I'm just folding A3s in the SB. I'd rather have JTo or even 86s to make a play here.
  6. The normal structure for heads-up play is for the button to post the SB, so the SB acts first before the flop, and then the BB acts first after the flop. (Otherwise, there is little incentive for SB to play mediocre hands.)Preflop, the raise is fine (I usually raise with this hand, but I'll limp with it against some opponents).I would only cap preflop if I think that it will gain me fold equity later in the hand. If I was doing it primarily for metagame reasons (in other words, if I think capping is -EV for this partcular hand), I would need to have specific, opponent-based reasoning as to w
  7. After betting the flop, I'd check/fold a K or Q turn even if there was only one caller. On this flop, anyone who calls will almost certainly have an A or an 8 (a pocket pair would be the only other reasonable possibility, but would be much less likely).I think you'd have a bigger visibility problem if the flop checks aournd and the turn is a K.I think you're ahead on this flop about 30-40% of the time. That's enough that I wouldn't want to give a free card in a 9 SB pot when up to 18 cards could beat me. (There's about a 50% chance that there is at least one A or 8 in 3 random hands, but UT
  8. Normally I would 3-bet the flop if I held AK-AT as long I thought my hand was likely to be good.The only reasons I would play it as in the OP would be 1) If I think button is tight enough to fold a weak A if I 3-bet, but aggressive enough to keep betting it if I check to him, or 2) if BB is tight enough that I don't think he'd cold-call on the flop with anything that I could beat, in which case I'd check the turn and fold if button bet and BB raised.
  9. I'm betting. Two out of your 3 opponents posted blind. There's a good chance you have the best hand, in which case you probably don't want to give a free card. Plus, you may get someone to fold a pocket pair (you did raise from the SB, so you figure to have at least either an A or a high pair most of the time).If anybody calls or raises, I'm probably not putting any more money in the pot unless I catch runner-runner Kings or runner-runner Queens.
  10. Agreed. I would bet/fold against most players and check/call only against very aggressive opponents.
  11. I'd c/c the river. The only hands you can plausibly beat at this point are 87 or else a bluff. If BB has anything else, he overdid it on the turn.(In fact, if BB has 87, he'll think he got counterfeited on the river, and probably wouldn't bet. I'll be surprised if you won this hand.)
  12. Well, I'm just figuring that there's maybe 20-25 reasonable ways villain could have flopped a flush draw, compared to 48 ways for KQ-K9, 18 ways for A7,A4, 6 ways for 76s, 87s, 6 ways for 44,77, and 36 ways for 22-99. So unless villain will call on this flop with A-high or random crap, I figure we're behind roughly 80% of the time. Since it costs 2 bets to see showdown, and there's only 5 bets in the pot at present, I don't think it's worth continuing UNLESS I expect villain to often play his pairs aggressively but his draws passively, OR if I think he's very loose and will peel on the flop
  13. Do we have to bet the flop? (i.e., is it +EV?) Unless button is a very loose player, we are usually going to be drawing to 8 outs at best (K's, T's, and backdoor draws), and I doubt button will be folding A-high on this flop.If button often makes loose calls preflop and later folds postflop, then of course bet the flop and follow up on the turn. But in my experience, cold-callers usually have either an A, a pocket pair, 2 broadways, or suited connectors, most of which have you beat.
  14. This one I'd check the flop. Button cold-called preflop; he almost has to have you beat right now, and he's not likely to fold on this flop.
  15. Without a read, I think I check/fold the turn. It's possible villain has a flush draw, but most likely he has a pocket pair, a K, or a 7.With a read that villain would usually raise the flop with a pair, and/or with a read that villain frequently make loose flop calls and then folds the turn (as many do), then I'd play the turn and river as you did.
  16. In general, I agree with this philosophy, but in this particular hand, I don't think that river card is particularly scary, given the action. If that river card beat us, given his PFR, then CO likely had either 66 or a high flush draw. 66 is certainly reasonable, although many players would have just limped PF with 66. A flush draw might raise the flop, but a passively-played flush draw is reasonable, since CO may fear that his overcard outs are no good because of our preflop 3-bet.I suppose it's possible CO had us beat before the river and was slowplaying, but I think it's unlikely.On the
  17. Whoa! "If we get called, we're most likely screw-ed" woud be a good reason not to bet the river. "If we get raised...." is not.No reason to think villain has a 6 or two-pair. If he's trapping with a set or an overpair, well, he sucks, but he could have raised the turn and you'd have paid off anyway.. And if he rivered a flush, so be it. I do think you have to pay off a river raise without a stellar read.Unless he is extremely likely to bluff at nothing when checked to on a scary board (but is unlikely to bluff-raise), or he frequently folds to a river bet after calling down, this is an eas
  18. I dunno; I doubt 22 and 44 just call the turn raise. JT is possible, but that's a fairly light river raise in that case. A flush makes the most sense. There are 28 possible flushes villain could have, 13 of which beat ours. Villain will certainly cap the river with the nut flush, and probably will with the K-high flush. If he has a 9-high flush or worse, I doubt he's capping. (Not to mention that villain would presumably be more likely to cap the flop with a flush draw if he also held an overcard).I think it's a close decision, but I'm leaning towards just calling. We need to be ahead c
  19. I'd check/call the river. The only reasonable hand you weren't beating before that you're beating now is T9. QJ, KT, and K9 all still beat you, as do 99 and TT. And KQ and KJ will likely bet if checked to, but probably won't raise.
  20. I'd check/call without a read; he should figure you almost certainly have at least TPTK, so he rates to either have a set or a straight, or else a bluff or some kind of overplayed hand.That river could only have hurt him if he was stealing preflop with Q7, Q6, or 76, (and if he does have one of those hands, he may fold if you bet the river anyway).
  21. Nope.Probably noone has a 2, an A or a flush draw likely bets the flop, and a 9 may have bet the flop as well.Nice bet, sir.
  22. He raises 4% of his hands, but here he reraised from the small blind- he's passive enough that this rates to be AA or KK, I suspect.I like a fold PF given his stats, unless he regularly just calls raises preflop with his big pairs..I think, given his stats, the flop fold is best.
  23. I dunno; if you distrust him enough to call down UI, I think you might be better off capping preflop....
  24. I'm not sure it's awful, but I think you're right that betting is better. I think you have to fold to a check/raise if you bet, though.
  25. Ugh - Even I don't consider folding an option; especially against a LAG; he could just have the case A, 2-pair, or a stone bluff.I think raising is worth considering, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk; maybe if villain will bet/call without a flush it would be worth it. But there are 9 diamonds he could hold, and only one A left. Seems like a clear call to me.I think a turn check might be in order though. I was surprised, but I ran pokerstove, and you actually only have 49% equity on this turn against 2 random hands.
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