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MrNiceGuy

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Everything posted by MrNiceGuy

  1. If you think a 3-bet is highly likely to succeed in getting heads-up with the nutjob, then I think you should 3-bet preflop.But, if your opponents are aware that you might be 3-betting some weaker hands here and will adjust (or if they're loose enough not to respect a 3-bet to begin with), then I like the cold-call. (If you improve, you'll probably have either a fairly strong hand (TPGK) or a very strong hand, and you will stand a good chance of beating mulitple opponents, and if you don't improve, chances are you won't be able to beat UTG.)
  2. Yeah, but the only reasons not to cap the turn would be: 1- He may fold to a cap when he's drawing dead, but we can make more money off him on the river, or 2- There are many river cards that are likely to kill us, so we call the turn and plan on raising a safe river. I don't think either argument applies here.IMO, we should cap the turn because if he does have a worse hand than us, he may not lead the river (particularly if a scare card like a 3rd club hits). And, if we cap the turn, he may still lead the river with hands like KQ or KJ, so we get an extra bet.
  3. I voted call, even against KsTsKdQh and AcJcAd9d you have 29.5% chance to win.But, if a couple of loose players folded before the action started (such that it's likely that they held low cards), then I might be inclined to fold, since there's now reason to suspect that my hand is likely to be more dead than I might normally expect.
  4. Nice to see you again Aseem. Some of the old guard hasn't been around in awhile.Preflop, I don't think there's much difference value-wise between capping and calling. I think, on average, as long as BB will cap with QQ and may cap with worse, there probably is equity value in capping (although it may get capped anyway, as it did here - but CO's cap probably tells you nothing, looks like a "what the hell" cap).I like the flop. The pots too big to knock out anybody with any piece, and there's a strong chance you'll need to further improve in order to win. Obviously folding is not going to be
  5. I agree. I think the only part of this hand that is questionable is whether to call or fold on the turn. We're getting 8-2 immediate pot odds, 9-2 if MP calls, and either 11-3 or 13-4 if MP raises I think we can give ourselves about 8 outs at best here (something like 1.5 9's, 2.5 Q's, 3.5 7's, and 0.5 8's), which would be a 5-1 shot. I think I'm finding a fold here, since our implied odds suck given our position, and our reverse implied odds are high. But I think it's close.
  6. Definitely standard. Your A7 is almost certainly the best hand on the turn, since either opponent probably would've bet the flop with any T, Q, or flush draw. Against certain players (habitual slowplayers and habitual bluffers), I might check/call the river, but normally I'd just bet it.
  7. Why not lead the flop? Chances are you'll have 12 outs twice against anyone who calls (and you may even take the pot down right there), and you definitely are getting good value if more than one opponent stays in, unless you happen to run into a set.Nut flush draws on the flop are generally excellent hands in limit, since they'll hit 1/3 of the time by the river and you can't get raised off the hand; generally you want to ram and jam on the flop, unless you're heads-up and you think you're flush outs are your only chance to win.
  8. Why would you bet the flop? Even if CO doesn't have an A and doesn't bet, button might have an A. I'm check-raising the flop if CO bets to trap button, and if CO 3-bets then I'll go for another check-raise on the turn.OP, I don't like your line unless CO is a maniac postflop. Otherwise, you could potentially miss a lot of bets if CO doesn't have an A (and if CO has an A, he's not going to fold, and may 3-bet if you put in a raise somewhere). Also, as played, I think you should 3-bet the river; if CO is passive preflop, then it's very unlikely that he has you beat (88 or perhaps A8 would be
  9. I'd just call against almost everyone. That's a scary board for anyone to be going for a check/raise with trip 3's, since you'd be very likely to check behind with anything less.I wouldn't 3-bet unless villain was a very aggressive player who would have been unlikely to play passively on the flop and turn with 2-pair or a flush.
  10. I play more limit than no-limit, but it seems to me that if you don't want to push the flop, then you should just call rather than reraise. You're probably better than even-money against villain's range of hands if the hand goes to showdown with 2 cards to come, but if you don't commit all the money to the pot now, your outs are not well-disguised, and if you hit any of them on the turn it could convince villain to fold. And, if you miss, and the money goes in on the turn, at that point you're almost certainly a substantial underdog.If villain has AQ or better, then he's the favorite, and pu
  11. I like the preflop call. I think capping should only be considered under 1 of 2 conditions:1) The 3-bettor will 3-bet fairly light (say, with AJo), AND there is a good chance that the original raiser will fold to a cap.OR2) You think your opponents are observant, and so far they have seen you just call with AK and medium-high pairs in similar situations from the blinds.I think (2) is self-explanatory - you cap in order to gain fold equity against medium pairs when you miss the flop. But, particularly in an online game, I think it's rare that you would have played enough hands for your oppone
  12. http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...c=38317&hl=I guess it was "only" about 15 bets on the turn before he was all-in.But at the table, I remember that every time he made another reraise on the turn, it put more doubt into my mind as to whether my read on the flop had been correct. (When the turn card first showed up, I had almost no doubt that I was still ahead, and I was almost certain villain had JJ). But every bet put a little more doubt in my mind, and I was less sure of myself. Of course, once we were down to only a few bets each, it didn't matter, as anyboday who's going t
  13. Basically, in a case like this, you should keep going until you think it's more likely that villain has you beat than that he doesn't.If villain is trying to read you hand at all, he should be able to put you on either 99 or AA when you 4-bet the turn, or at worst when you 6-bet, since those are the only hands you could reasonably have that wouldn't be worried about the 4. So if I felt he was at least trying to put me on a hand, I would stop either after he 5-bets or at most after he 7-bets.But if you think villain is purely playing his own hand, well, A4 is the best hand villain could have t
  14. Sure - I checked, planning to check/raise, but villain checked behind. She had KQ. I'm very surprised she didn't bet the river; I still can't decide if her check was smart or weak-tight (but correct here).If she has me on specifically AA or AK, and she thinks I'll check/raise with AA, then her check is better than bet/call (I can have AA 6 ways and AK 8 ways).
  15. You're right that many players would cap many draws on the flop, but I don't think the majority would, particularly at 2/4.On the turn, if villain is (still) on a draw, she usually will have 9 outs to beat me (more if she has the 9cxc), 4 if she has a gutshot. If villain has 2-pair, I have 8 outs to win, and if villain has a set or straight, I'm drawing dead. As such, getting raised by a better hand costs me more than giving a free card to a draw does. So I don't think I should bet the turn because 1) I think an average player is far more likely to have a made hand here than a draw at this
  16. Do you guys really think there are that many draws that would cap the flop in this spot? Note that I hold the Ac; IMO, if villain has any draw other than JcTc, Tc9c, or Jc9c, then she badly overplayed this flop. I'm not clear on what 16 combos you're talking about; the only way I got outdrawn on the river is if villain had a naked 6, which I can't see her capping the flop with. Realistically, I think the only way the river affected the outcome of the hand is if villain had KQ or an overplayed (on the flop) K9. At 2/4 I think only huge LAGs 3-bet KQ in that spot. (It's been a few months sinc
  17. I also opted for the check/raise/call line. But I was thinking about it afterwards.I think villain's most likely range is: KQ(9), K6(6), Q6(6), AK(6), or 66(1). But K6 and Q6 can be discounted somewhat from the preflop call (many players would see a flop, but not everyone), and the AK can be discounted a lot from the preflop just call and the flop cap. (JT, KK, and QQ seem unlikely, but any of these would have me crushed.) Overall, I think I'm ahead a little more than half the time. But I think most of the hands that have me beat will 3-bet, and I'm not sure I'm ahead often enough to ris
  18. Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Preflop: Hero is SB with A , A . Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, Button calls.Flop: (6 SB) 6 , Q , K (3 players)Hero bets, BB raises, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls.Turn: (7 BB) 9 (2 players)Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.River: (9 BB) 6 (2 players)Hero .....Final Pot: 9 BBThe rest of the hand is pretty standard, I think, but the river is interesting. What's best- bet, check/call, or check/raise?Oh, the villain just sat down, so no read, other than that it's a she (
  19. I just figured everybody was in Vegas.
  20. I don't like the turn raise idea. Knocking out CO cuts down on the value of our flush draw, and risks a 3-bet from SB if he has trips. If SB is donking it up with nothing, then I think a river raise is better than a turn raise- we still knock out CO, and we win a bit more from SB. (Although the river should be folded unless the chances are significant (say 20% or more) that SB has been firing away like this with nothing.)I'm okay with the flop call only because of the read that CO 3-bets light preflop, which makes it more likely that our outs are clean (I'd guess we have 6.5 outs here) and
  21. Is SB likely to be donking into all that strength 3 times without a pair? If that's the case, then I can get behind the river raise. Raising strikes me as probably being better than calling, as you can get CO to fold A-high, but it only makes sense if there's a decent chance SB is full of it.
  22. I did some scratchwork on this. (I did this quickly, so it may not be perfect.) Let's say CO's range is AA-88, AK-A9, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT. In that case, when we have A8, villain will have us dominated 96 times, and he'll have K, Q, or J-high 96 times.Heads-up, we'd be getting 3.25-1 to call (minus whatever the rake is).Against the dominating range, we'll flop an A about 14% of the time and an 8 about 17% of the time. An A will give us the best hand about 40% of the time. An 8 will give us the best hand about 60% of the time. Together, our odds of outflopping the CO in this case is abo
  23. If that's what they have, and if you're ahead of the donk-bettor, then sure. But a flush draw is an unlikely holding for your opponents. T9 is reasonable for the limpers, but so is 89 or 87.If I had a good read on the donker and I was confident he'd check/raise trips, and almost certainly had a J or a draw here, then I'd go ahead and raise. Otherwise, I'd rather call and see if maybe the limpers opt to make bad overcalls with hands like 55, plus that way if one of them raises behind us, we get out a little cheaper.
  24. I'm ok with the turn call, because you're unlikely to knock out a flush draw or T9 with a raise, a gutshot is only getting roughly the correct odds to call, and any other hand you're ahead of would clearly be making a bad call, even for one just bet.
  25. I don't think it would've mattered here, since button would've bet anyway, but I'd check the turn. UTG's flop call almost has to mean you're beat (the only way you're ahead is if he has a suited club K or Q, and even then you're probably behind button).
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