MrNiceGuy

These quizzes are getting interesting...Assuming he plays reasonably well, a set makes no sense, and the only 2-pair that makes any sense is A3 (and I doubt A3 would push on this river; he'd probably either check/call or make a smaller bet). Since he's going to have a hard time putting us on a hand (we opened in late position and checked behind on the flop; we could have almost anything), he can't just call on that scary board on the turn when there's so many ways we could be semibluffing. 65 also would probably do more than check/call the turn.So in my view, the only hand we need to be afra

I would call preflop, and I don't think it's all that close. Unless button is very tight with his steal attempts (or SB is very tight), you probably have a small edge here on average. But, button will cap with many hands that dominate you, and likely won't cap with anything you dominate. That right there probably negates any edge you have.So, since you don't have a significant equity edge, why help your opponents define your hand? You're the BB; if you just call, you can represent just about anything on the flop.Anyway, as played, on the flop, let's give you 7 outs for the OESD, 1 out for

Agreed. I'm not even sold on the turn 3-bet; other than a bluff, what is he calling the flop and raising the turn with that we can beat?

Against a better player, I think maybe a flat call would be best, with the intention of pushing any non-low, non-club turn, and folding otherwise if he bets pot again. His flop bet would concern me, since he's firing into us when he has to be aware that there's a good chance we have aces, and I'd be geniunely worried about A234, A23 with a club draw, or silmilar hands. Also, it seems unlikely that a strong player would have a broadway draw here, given his preflop play and his flop bet.But, against this guy, who's presumably not an especially good player (given the earlier hand you mentioned)

Not unless you think there is a substantial chance you can get both opponents to fold (which seems unlikely; BB, at least, doesn't appear to be going anywhere).When you miss the turn, you no longer have an equity edge, and the last thing you want to do is risk knocking out SB.

I agree that there are few hands that are beating us here. Ac5c and 6c5c, and possibly a stubborn 44, are the only hands that really make sense (77 is a remote possibility (no turn raise), and TT even more remote (no raise preflop)).But, what hands can we beat that raise this river? 22 doesn't make any more sense than 77. T7s maybe, but again, why no turn raise? And there's only 2 possible ways he could have T7s. Would he limp T4s? Again, only 2 possible hands.So, given the read (presumably the chances that villian is raising with 1-pair or worse are extremely low), I honestly do think h

I agree that slowplaying should be a rare play. If OP's thinking was, "ooh, i flopped the nuts! i should check!" then I'd suggest not to think that way; usually you should bet out when you hit the flop hard in a multiway pot.But, here, I think the decision to slowplay is probably a good one (unless button is a huge calling station who could have a wide range of hands (like AT or a small pair) here, and who probably won't bet this flop without at least top pair). I'm thinking that usually, button is going to have some piece of the flop, given his preflop cold-call, so I'm content check and l

I don't think anybody who would bet/fold AQ or AT here would limp UTG with these hands.(I agree that there's a slim chance that a tight player could have limped AQ, and could now be bet/folding, but I think the chances of this are probably worse than the chances that we get 3-bet by a worse hand.)

Preflop call is definitely light.I like the flop call. Raising won't knock out much. I'd go ahead and raise the turn, though. I'd call a 3-bet (but I'd fold to a 3-bet and a cap), and then fold the river UI (unless you have a read that the 3-bettor is very aggressive). Very few players will ever 3-bet this turn with a hand you can beat. (even an aggressive player who 3-bets AsK or AsQ might check the river UI).As played, I think you have to fold this river. UTG+1's bet makes no sense, but MP's raise says you're beat. There's a small chance that you're best, but I think it's considerably

QFT (especially that last line).On the turn, I'd put him on most likely either 2-pair or a set, or one pair that picked up a flush draw. In the first case, obviously you would rather not raise. In the second case, if you raise, he'll call and probably check-fold the river UI, but if you call, there's a good chance you can induce either a river bluff or a crying check-call if he does not improve.So I like a simple call down here, regardless of what hits on the river (I don't think I'd even raise a T or A river without a read). I think I'd bet any river if checked to (you'd have to call a c/r

Actuary,Forget the equations I wrote; they don't mean a whole lot since they're based on guesses as to how our opponent will play.This is basically my argument for cold calling:"If we just call, I agree that BB will be correct to come in with anything except for a worse A, a worse K, or a hand that's dominated by whatever pair the raiser has. However, if he calls (and his call is in fact correct), it barely hurts us, but it hurts the raiser significantly. For example, say the hands are 88, AK, and J9s. Heads-up against the raiser, we have 45% equity, and the raiser has 55%. 3-handed, we have 3

So can he.Suppose we 3-bet. Let's say we only get capped by AA or KK, and that happens 8% of the time. The other 92% of the time, say we get heads-up with QQ or worse.Here's a quick estimate (not exact):90% of the time:We win 2 BBs when an A hits the flop or turn and he misses his set (~20%)We win 4.5 BBs when a K hits the flop or turn and he misses his set (~20%)We lose 1.5 BBs when no A or K hits the flop or turn (~55%)We lose 5 BBs when we both improve (~5%)2(.2) + 4.5(.2) - 1.5(.55) - 5(.05) = 0.225 BBsThe other 8% of the time, when we run into AA or KK, let's say we lose 1.5 BBs on aver

Not really- the draw is vulnerable to the board pairing, and also if we hit a flush, a 4th club could make somebody a higher flush. If we flop the best hand with AK, it will be rare that we need to dodge more than 7 outs, and we will often be very far ahead. What good does this do? If we get capped, we still don't know if our outs are any good, it just means we've thrown money away. If we just call, I agree that BB will be correct to come in with anything except for a worse A, a worse K, or a hand that's dominated by whatever pair the raiser has. However, if he calls (and his call is in fac

I disagree strongly.Here's another hand. Two players limp, SB raises, you call in BB with Tc9c, both limpers call. Flop is AcKcQd. SB bets. What do you do? You call, of course. You have a draw to a strong hand, and you likely have zero chance to win unimproved, so you call and hope for overcalls.I think that this situation, preflop, is basically the same situation (unless you feel 3-betting gives you signifcant fold equity against the raiser, but I doubt he's going to fold a pocket pair if no A or K shows up).

This is interesting.Ok, so we're reasonably confident that villain's raise means specifically that he has a pocket pair. We also think that he's equally likely to raise with any pair.If we take the above to be 100% true, then:Villain has AA 4% of the time, KK 4% of the time, and QQ-22 92% of the time.I'm going to assume that, if we cold-call or 3-bet, villain will fold postflop unimproved if an A hits the board, or if his pair gets counterfeited by two higher pair on the board, but won't fold otherwise. But I'm not sure enough of this that I will necessarily fold TPTK postflop if he gives me

Definitely a tough run- Skimming over the hands, I would say, though, that you seem to sometimes overplay hands like top pair top kicker on the turn and river after an opponent shows strength. (It's also sometimes okay to check a strong hand- in the first AA hand you posted, against most opponents, I would either check behind on the turn (against tricky opponents) or bet/fold the turn (against semi-loose but straightforward opponents). I'd only bet/call against maniacs and donkeys.)

Given the tough table, I'd call. Even if I felt I was good enough that I could expect to win $12k on average in the tourney when I signed up (which would make calling here an even money proposition at a random table), the tough draw would drop my expectation considerably. A top pro might be correct to fold, if he felt he had a substantial edge on the field, but I doubt even a strong amateur has an edge on the field, given that he has to battle two world class players.(Not to mention that you save a lot of time if you bust out now instead of later, and time=money; say on average you expect to

I'm not convinced that a raise has value here- I'm having a hard time putting SB on anything that you beat (other than a bluff) when he raises the turn. If he has just a ten, his turn raise is a pretty aggressive play, since if he was ahead on the flop, that Q is likely to have helped you. A reasonable player is probably mucking T4, T3, or 43 preflop, so I doubt he got counterfeited by the river (and if he did, he might not call a raise anyway).I think you should just call; I doubt you're ahead even close to 50% of the time (let alone the 60-65% you need to raise/call) when you raise the riv

Ok- at the table I felt it was a push, and I did so after only brief thought. After thinking about the hand afterwards, I felt the push was borderline, but was probably still the best play.I really think that AQo should be folded here. And I think that if I'm the small blind instead of the BB, the decision would be really close. But maybe I'm thinking too conservatively.According to pokerstove, if I give the raiser AA-TT and AK-AJ and I give the caller AA-KK, TT-88, AQ, AJ, and KQ, then I'm at about 30% to win, and the pot's effectively laying 2900-1100 (2.63-1), so the odds are there. (AQ

Live tourney, 180 players, 1500 chips to start, 18 spots pay.Early in level 4, about 120 players left, blinds 100-200, playing 10-handed.I'm in the BB. After posting, I have 1100 chips left in my stack.Everyone folds to the table chip leader (around 4k chips) 2 off the button, who raises to 800. This player (an older fellow) has been raising a lot of pots all tournament, and has often won uncontested, or won on the flop with a C-bet. Once, early, he C-bet, got raised, and folded. He's rarely been played back at preflop, but the couple times that someone reraised him all-in preflop, he call

I'd just call. AT and QJ make the most sense, and there's 6 ways he could have AT and 16 he could have QJ (AT makes slightly more sense than QJ given the UTG limp. But it's nowhere near 3 times as likely, IMO- maybe we discount QJ to around 10).Raise/call sucks unless villain is a maniac. Throw in A7 as a possibility and raise/fold might be close to just calling (as long as you're confident villain wouldn't 3-bet 2-pair or 3-bet bluff), but I still doubt you're ahead of more than 50% of his bet/calling range, so I'd just call.

Yup. If I had a strong, player-specific read that his flop call probably meant top pair or better (in other words, he'd normally either raise or fold with his draws or lower pairs, but he'd slowplay strong hands), then I'd check behind. Otherwise, easy bet.

I don't even like the first turn raise. I'd just call and make sure you got the overcall. UTG is much more likely to have a straight or a flush than he is to have 2-pair or a set to be betting here.

Yeah, I think there's too much risk of lost bets here to get cute out of position. Best case, you get an extra SB from each opponent. But if a heart, T, or 6 hits, you'll wish you had bet the flop. And, BB might check anyway (as he did here) after both you and UTG stick around.Since BB didn't bet the turn, it probably cost you 2-3 BB, if not more. I think that's too big of a risk to take when at best your line gains you 2 SB as opposed to 3-betting the flop and going from there.

I'm calling, although I think it's closer than some people might think. I think your odds of flopping a set and winning with it are probably somewhere around 8-1. Getting 18-3 effective pot odds, I think you'll need to drag somewhere around 4-5 BB's out of your opponents on average postflop when you hit the set in order to show a profit (and all this craziness suggests to me that you can).