MrNiceGuy
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Everything posted by MrNiceGuy
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IPITS, for 2 reasons.1) Level 1- What does he have? How many players are playing Jx (where x<T) for a raise out of the SB? Not many. It's possible villain has QJ, but I'd figure AJ is more likely.2) Level 2 - What does he think we have? Our turn 3-bet anounces pretty clearly that we have a J. So, if villain has any sense, he can safely put us on at least a J (presumably at least J9). So, unless villain is a moron, he should not be capping without at least KJ. I'm calling down on the premise that he might be a moron, but I'm not putting in any more raises.
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LOL, you're right- I'm outthinking myself.
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Yeah, I'd virtually always 3-bet or fold in this spot preflop (I'd fold if the UTG is a very tight raiser from up front). I'd only consider coldcalling if there were a really weird circumstance about one of the players behind me (for example, if the BB never folds for any amount of raises).
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I'm probably in the minority, but I actually like it the way it is now, where your opponents only get to see your hand if it is actually shown at the table. It's more like "real" poker as is.(Maybe if there was an option to request full hand histories for certain hands, for the sake of providing a means to look for evidence of suspected collusion this would probably be good - something equivalent to the option you have at a casino to view a mucked hand that went to showdown if you suspect collusion.)Although, at the same time, I am really hoping that the note-taking feature gets fixed soon.
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Call Or Raise The River When Hit Trips?
MrNiceGuy replied to CoranMoran's topic in Other Poker Cash Games
My thoughts exactly. -
I'd lead the flop. You have overs and a flush draw- see if you can pick up some calls from overcards.
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Overplayed Ak Or Unlucky Bad Beat?
MrNiceGuy replied to JoblessBast's topic in No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
Would anybody just push preflop here? I think I would, unless I had some reason to suspect somebody was trapping with AA or KK. I like pushing a lot better than raising smaller and getting called by a pocket pair. (If I expected my opponents to call a raise to 60 with A-rag, then the smaller raise is probably better, but I'd expect that usually, the smaller raise is only getting called by pocket pairs, which is not what I'd want to be OOP against with AK).As played, on the flop, I don't see how you could ever find a fold after that flop. I'm tempted to make a "feeler" bet of $60-$80 (unles -
First Strat Post Since We're Back Woot...
MrNiceGuy replied to DonkSlayer's topic in Other Poker Cash Games
I probably bet this flop without a read. Make the flop J92 instead of J62, and I'd probably check.But, as to the river, it's interesting. Hard to put villain on a hand; he checked the flop, then called the turn getting 2.5-1. Without a read, it seems his most likely hand is either a K or a strong hand that he slowplayed. If he's thinking about our hand, he's likely got us on either a K or a bluff (or possibly a strong hand that we sandbagged on the flop). He almost certainly doesn't have a flush (I think very few players check a flush draw on that flop), and he should realize that we don' -
I think the flop bet is the only questionable decision. Without knowing the flop action, I'd guess you have something like 6-7 outs here, as when you make a pair, there's a good chance your opponents will make 2-pair or a straight. You'll almost surely need at least 3 callers in order to have an equity edge. So I doubt you get value from a bet. It might still be worth betting for deception, though, and it could save you from getting jammed (although it didn't here).I think it's a close decision. As long as your opponents would view a continuation bet from you as probably being strong, I t
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I'd raise the turn, unless I had a strong read on these guys suggesting I do otherwise. UTG is much more likely to have KK or QQ than JJ. BB called 2-cold preflop; it's possible he flopped a set, but without a read I'd say it's more likely he has a flush draw or a J.If you raise, BB 3-bets, and UTG caps, I think you can muck it. Anything else, I'm seeing showdown.
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I was playing today with some players that I took notes on yesterday, and I saw that all of the notes I took before are gone? If the notes on players don't save, that's a major problem for me....
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My initial thought is to agree with Coran- 3-bet the flop. (although, if the flop gets capped, I'm going to take a card off getting 12-1 (I think at least the A outs will usually be good), and fold the turn UI).Most likely, either our opponent is drawing to 3-6 outs, or we're drawing to 3-5 outs. If we call the flop, the pot will be about 4.5 BBs. That means that whoever's behind is losing somewhere around 0.8 BBs for each BB he puts in the pot from here on out.If we call down, and our opponent has 4 outs and continues to bet every street whether he improves or not, we'll win a total of abo
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My thoughts (most of which have been mentioned already)--Give some indication of when a straddle is made (I was just playing 4-handed limit and it threw me when I called what I thought was cutoff's open-raise, only to see him 3-bet me).-Don't show the regular action buttons in purple until it is actually my turn to act (either use checkboxes or shade the buttons out or something to allow me to select an option ahead of time). Every time somebody bets and the buttons pop up, it takes me a second to realize it's not my turn yet.-Don't show an avatar for an empty seat. This can get very confusi
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This makes perfect sense to me, with 99 or JT. All we can beat are AK and AQ. Calling gets us the same info as raising, for a much cheaper price. (Giving villain a free shot at a six-outer roughly half the time is better than charging ourselves and extra 2-3 k the other half the time.)Raising is even worse with JT than with 99, because it gives villain a chance to reraise us off our probable 5-outer when he has an overpair.Heck, if villain has us beat half the time, and will reraise when he has us beat and fold when he doesn't, then a pot-sized raise is a terrible play (as we'd be getting wo
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To me, it seems like SB's most likely hand is 66, given the way he played, with 99 or something like Ah7h also reasonable, an overpair would also be possible, and least likely would be a hand like two high hearts, A7, T7, 87, 97, 76, etc. I think we're looking at 66 at least about 25% of the time here.BB could have a number of hands here, but if he's a weak-tight player, after his flop raise, top-pair/two-pair hands seem a lot more likely than a flush or straight. I think we're ahead of BB at least 1/2 the time.So, I think we have the best hand at least about 1/4*1/2= 1/8 times, which would
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Hmmm....On the flop, I'm guessing villain's range is something like: Hands you're a big (~75%) favorite: Let's say: A9-A2 (124)Hands you're a slight favorite (~60%): Q9,AT,T9 (48)Hands you're a slight dog (~47%): QT (16)Hands you're a huge dog (~9%): KQ-K7,JQ-J8,22 (120)Against the above range, I get that you're about a 45-55 dog. Although, he won't necessarily always play A-rag or gutshots this way. Still, it seems to me that you're probably ahead too often to fold the flop against a LAG.Depending on what villain will typically 3-bet preflop, villain could also perhaps play premium hands or
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My thoughts on hand 2....If we call, we have about 3 outs to broadway (I'm discounting 1 because of the chances of a split pot, and because there's a good chance at least one opponent will have a boat redraw on this board). I think we can give ourselves about 1 J out. I think we have about 0.5 K outs. That's a total of 4.5 outs. Our implied odds will be very low no matter what we hit, because the board would be so scary that it'd be tough to get action unless we're beat, and because our position sucks.The pot is laying us about 8-1 immediate odds (after the rake). If one or both opponents
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I usually fold TT (and even JJ, depending on the opponent) preflop heads-up against a passive, straightforward EP raiser, unless I know him to be a loose raiser. These types of player rarely come in raising with AQ up front, in my experience (many such players will even limp with AK).You're behind way too often, I think, to make money by playing the hand.
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If villain rarely has a flush draw, as I stated in my post, then my math is approximately fine. If villain has a legit hand, he either has one out (if he has a lower set), six outs (if he has JJ), or no outs. If we are ahead the majority of the time, then villain will have, on average, one out or less. If villain has one out on average when he is ahead, he will only suckout about 1% of the time in total if we are ahead more often than not.(When we're behind, we almost always have 3 outs to split the pot, and when villain is behind, he has 4 outs to split the pot, so if we think we're a slig
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Adapting To Thinking Opponents, Hand #1 - 30/60 65s
MrNiceGuy replied to akishore's topic in Other Poker Cash Games
River is an easy bet, imo, for all the reasons already discussed. It's unfortunate that he folded, but bear in mind that you should look for spots to bluff the guy in the future. (But, you should just call if raised; the only hands a thinking villain would raise this river with (other than bluffs) are 5x, 99, or 22).EDIT- Just read iggy's reply, and he may have a point about check/raising the river, as villain will have a hard time putting you on a 5 or a 2. But, when you bet/call that turn, it strongly suggests that you have either a 5 or a flush, so I'm not sure if he'd bet the river with -
We should 3-bet here if and only if we think we're ahead of more than about 50% of villain's hands, not counting his stone bluffs (for example, if we're ahead 55% of the time, and we outdraw him 22% of the remaining 45%, then we are 66% to win the hand (assuming that villain rarely has a hand such as a flush draw)).I think this boils down to two questions- would he usually cold-call preflop with anything besides 99 that contains a 9, and would he usually raise the flop with a 9 in his hand? If the answer to the first question is yes, and the answer to the second question is no (basically, if
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IMO, button played the hand the worst, AINEC. Open-limping on the button in a limit game, and later overcalling in a nothing pot on that river when he couldn't beat a K (and, whatever weak made hand he had, he probably should have bet either the flop or turn); whatever he had, his play was gruesome.I actually like the way you played it, given that you're playing 5/10 and have no reads (if you were playing against two known fish, of course you should be betting). But I would figure that you can expect most opponents to be more likely to bet on the flop or turn than to call.For the same reason
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I'm betting and folding to a check-raise, unless I have a good reason to suspect a raise might be a bluff (the way the hand played out, I can't imagine my opponent would suspect a bluff-raise would work, unless I have some reason to think he might (e.g. I've shown a willingness to bet/fold, or my opponent has shown a willingness to bluff-raise)).I'm not sure the bet is as easy as people are making it out to be, though. There's roughly 90 ways he could have an A, and let's say he plays it this way 25% of he time. There's roughly 9 ways he could have a flopped or turned set, and let's say he
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For sure, the river raise is a spew.Against most players, I wouldn't even 3-bet the turn. (I might against a player who is semi-tight preflop and overaggressive postflop, but even then only if I had a very LAG image (such that he wouldn't be too worried about me having AA).)Against a very loose preflop player, you shouldn't 3-bet the turn (unless you're folding to a cap) because 33 will cap and A3 without a low will just call, and your oppononent will have 33 half as often as he'll have A3, and he'll often have a low when he has A3.And a good postflop player would not check/raise you here wit
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I like the flop call, but I'm check-folding the turn. If you have the best hand, there's a good chance the turn checks around. Otherwise, while all your outs could be live, you could also be drawing dead; I'd estimate on average, if this turn gets bet you have maybe 4-5 outs, which is not enough to keep drawing (especially with your relatively low implied odds and your high reverse implied odds).
