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UncleHoot

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Everything posted by UncleHoot

  1. Assuming SB and BB have decent stack sizes (say 2500 or more), there is no need for them to take that risk yet. If BB has, say 250 more to call, fine. He's unlikely to really affect my overall odds.
  2. I'm still not claiming a call is absolutely the right play, but things to consider:Calling with 9 high in this position is probably a much better move than calling with Ace rag, K rag, or Q rag or even something like QT. It's likely that many of the over cards are already out there. Short of having a monster, your best call here is with exactly something like 89s. I'm not dead set against folding here, but I think a good case can be made for a call. That's really what I'm trying to figure out.Anyway, with that stack, and assuming that there aren't 4 other stacks as bad or worse off than me
  3. It's a 1.75 turbo. Maybe my AQ shove just lost to AK (or vice versa). There are certainly a number of ways to get a stack that size. I suppose it's also possible that I haven't really had a hand/opportunity yet, blinds just went up, and I've been folding a lot. It can happen. I don't like to go crazy early in these.I had forgotten to take antes into account, which I think would be an extra 200 chips, giving me slightly better pot odds.
  4. I'm on the button with 3 players already in the pot ahead of me. SB and BB have yet to act.
  5. Ok, I guess what I'm really asking is something akin to "implied odds". Think beyond this hand. In this hand, I don't have odds to call. I might be kind of close (say 3.3 to 1, instead of 4 to 1). But when you factor in the chip position that this hand puts me in for the entire tournament, it doesn't seem as bad. Winning would give me a lot of fold equity against other 1.5-3K stacks.
  6. I play a lot of the 18-man 1.75 turbo's. Occasionally, I find myself in a situation similar to the following:8 players leftBlinds 200/400.My stack 1050.Dealt 8s 9s on the buttonPlayer 1 (stack 4K) raises to from EP to 800Player 2 shoves his remaining 1200 and changePlayer 3 calls (stack 8K)Me? I call.My logic is that I'm probably about 20% to win the hand, and if I win it, there's a very good chance of cashing. I'd have close to 5K in chips. Waiting around for a big hand before getting blinded out (and possibly still losing) seems even more risky, since I have almost no fold equity left.
  7. Awesome! Thanks! I think this is math that I can understand, too. LOL I'll have to work through some calculations when I get a chance.
  8. Very good points.I think the last sentence really sticks. When I start losing, it seems like I try to "make it happen" more than I should. In other words, I think I'm no longer patient enough to let the cards (or situations) come to me, and try to force the situation a lot more. Yes, that's what steaming is all about.Over time, I'm getting better, though. Plus, 6-tabling helps. When your AA loses to KQo, it easier to simply say, "gg" and move on. When AA loses to KQ, AK loses to AQ, AK loses to 66, 66 loses to AK, over and over for a few minutes, it can start getting to me. That's when
  9. Thanks for all the input. All of it. It's all good.Played tonight. Got rivered 3 times on or near bubble. In spite of that, I was playing great, and I knew it. But, I hit 10%, so I took an hour. Came back later, played worse, rivered a couple players, and won it back. Break even for the night. LOLHonestly, if I could get a handle on these days, I'd probably have a lot more in my account. It seems to be the one thing that keeps me from really becoming profitable over time. I've moved up in stakes and lost money there, and while that sucks, I can handle that. As a friend of mine once s
  10. Ok, were they otherwise making money off the game? Rake? If so, it's generally illegal.If it's just a bunch of guys that get together, and the only ones making money were the players, then it's a completely different story. We dont' know.
  11. It's almost making sense to me. I'll need more time to digest that. I had one single stats class in college, and I think I forgot most of it 5 minutes after the exam. How was I supposed to know that it might be something fun to know down the road? No one told me it might be useful! :bubble_lol:But seriously, thanks for the info. I'll try to play around with it. I also wrote to the 2+2 webmaster to see if they could find that article again.
  12. Hmmm... Yeah, here's a link to where the article is mentioned. http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...php/t95217.htmlThe statistical math mentioned is above my head. I have a math minor. If anyone would like to break it down for a layman, that would be great.
  13. Hmmm... No thoughtful replies yet.Start out at the small stakes. Learn the software. Live poker and Internet poker seem like different games at times.Are you playing tournaments or cash games? I've got a quite a bit of experience in the small stakes tournaments (mostly SnG's), not as much in cash. In my experience, the most money/hr is in the SnG multi-table games, but your results may vary.If you're an Omaha (regular and O8) expert, you can make a killing at low stakes. I'm not, unfortunately.I just recently started obsessing over my stats (see my other post).Isn't sweating the same as
  14. Anyone have any idea of how many tournaments (of a certain buy-in/players) you should have under your belt before you get a decent idea of your actual ROI? My gut feeling says probably a lot less in the 9p's and a whole bunch more for the 180p's, but that's about all I have to go on.Also, I downloaded my "Playing History Audit" from PokerStars, loaded it into an Access database, and found lots of cool information. Because you can calculate when you register and when you finish, you can then determine the average amount of time to play a particular type of tournament, and actually calculate $
  15. Thank you very much. I hadn't thought of it that way before.In these micro-stakes tournaments, it really seems like raw aggression = -EV. I do best by often playing passively, then making large bets that look like bad bluffs. But when I was sick, I think I was probably just raising a lot of pots. I probably looked like a donkey, and was treated as such. I'm not going to go back and analyze every game, though.Thanks for your input.
  16. I've been multi-table grinding micro-stakes tournaments on Stars for quite awhile. Every once in awhile, I'll have days where (it seems) no matter what I do, I can't win. Looking at my sharkscope graph, it's a steady downhill descent on those days. I can point them out and tell a story for each one, and in almost every case, it's just 1 or 2 bad days. On those days, I'll initially stay calm, but by the end, I'm definitely steaming badly. Just when I get my roll back up to where it was (after a couple weeks of grinding), I have one of those days where I lose, essentially, 2 weeks of work i
  17. Hey, I'm glad you asked! It's me! No, I'm just kidding. John E. "Spikehorn" Meyer. This guy was a local entrepreneur of sorts that lived in Harrison, Michigan up until the 1950's. Nearly everyone knew him as simply Spikehorn. He had a tourist "trap" just off the hi-way, with a handful of bears and other animals. Anyone alive in Michigan in the 1940's and 1950's probably had heard of him. No, I wasn't born yet.http://www.youtube.com/user/UncleHoot#p/u/3/QMR7veI78f8In case that link ever stops working, it's one of my uploaded videos on my channel: www.youtube.com/unclehoot
  18. This is very cool and interesting.Maybe Worm will use this idea in "Rounders 2".
  19. A fold would look weak. Other than that, a fold is not bad here.However, players online seem to be getting more and more aggressive lately. I would not be surprised if you are actually ahead in the hand. He could easily be doing this with Jd or Td, and no pair at all.Against a very aggressive player, I would probably shove here, and keep my fingers crossed. A lot of hyper aggro players will bet any scare card, and here, we have a pretty scary flop against someone who didn't raise preflop. He figures you won't call a huge raise, even if you have something like A9 with a weak diamond. Cert
  20. If you are better than 99.7% of the other players, use good bankroll management, play between 50 and 100 $10 tournaments per day (or perhaps 1,000 hands), you have about a 75% chance of getting there in 6 months.But you seem much more likely to be the guy who will deposit $50, and then take most of your bankroll to the next table, each time you move up in limits. So, unless you are the luckiest person in the entire world (of course you are), you will most likely make a lot of $50 deposits deposits in the next 6 months. And if you're really, really, really lucky, you just might hit your goal
  21. To give a serious answer...I don't find that phrase completely unacceptable preflop, but I agree that it doesn't make a lot of sense. You can't use it to describe a situation where AK beats AA, for example. Talking about "runners", "flush draws", and "straight draws" preflop would definitely prove you're an idiot."I can't believe you called my all-in preflop with Ace Ten suited!""But I had a royal flush draw..."I read that on here once...EDIT: I started playing around 2005, whatever that makes me...
  22. The odds that he shows are less than a typical one-outer.
  23. My (new) best run ever gave way to my (new) worst run ever. I was playing the $12 45-man turbo's on Stars on Sunday, and lost quite a bit. To make myself feel better (or worse, depending), I looked up the stats on a couple grinders that I knew of, wickss79 and gimmidaloot7. I've noticed that both of them have done pretty badly in January. I'm not a true grinder, but I'm known to occasionally multi-table grind for an evening. This is all making me think... Around Jan 1st, Stars added the new 90 man tourneys. The grinders on 2+2 were knida pissed, because the turbo structure had changed
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