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stevel999

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Posts posted by stevel999

    So Who Will Replace Aj Benza On Hsp

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    A big clue today on twitter via Doyle that the new host is Kara Scott :Doyle Brunson: @KaraOTR Hey Kara, is it true you are the new co-host on HSP? If so they made an exellent choice.Kara Scott: @TexDolly Ahhhhh, thats really lovely of you to say Doyle!I can't find any official confirmation yet but this seems pretty good!

    Incredible Action At Fulltilt: Durrrr V Ivey

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    So you're a fortune teller, huh?You saw what's going to happen tomorrow?Anything else interesting happening tomorrow? Mar 22nd, 2009 by blindtilt
    FYI, not everyone is in the same timezone: in Australia it was 22nd March.And I apologize for the blog spam. I tried to post pictures here but struggled with the size of the jpg's. It was the only way I could think to show you the captures I took. I have nothing to gain from people going to my little blog...basically I could care less. If this was bad etiquette and you want me to remove the link let me know.

    Mommy

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Re "Wake Up Mommy!": Simply put, this is the most powerful blog entry you have ever made. It made me cry and I deal with this on a regular basis (I am a physician). My thoughts are with her and with you. I am sure that the doctors did the right thing to give her a chance.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    They aren't sophisticated enough to trap me for maximum value, no matter how they approach the hand.
    Personally I think this is the whole key to winning at microstakes. Maximizing value from your big hands: trap the aggressive players, bet more than you usually would against calling stations because many microstakes players call very light as in this example from my blog: http://blindtilt.com/?p=271For the same reason (they call light) rarely bluff on the river. It is frustrating to put a pot size bluff on the river and they call with bottom pair.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Another thing lets say your first session at 10 NL you loose 1 buy in $5 you move imediately down or you keep grinding 10 NL with a shorter buy in like you would do if you had lost the initial $2 buy in on level 1?
    His rule is he never goes down. He never buys in for more than 20% of his bankroll.Re running like God.. 5 buyins in 250 hands = 100 BB/100 hands! Yes, I would say that that is running like God.........BUT such a small sample.I still say that Daniel will run into that bad swing and lose his bankroll well before he is near his goal.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    ..........The main difference between my approach and DN's is that it doesn't sound like he'll move back down. Ever. I would bounce between levels when I moved up.
    I agree that this is a big issue.....something tells me that when Daniel is a bit higher, e.g 10/25cNL or 25/50cNL there might be a new rule introduced to address this.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    From the new blog "$0.02-$0.05 Here I come!":- 'if you can't beat that game you have a lot to learn!' Absolutely true!- 'attempted probably three bluffs, one a semi-bluff with a pair, straight and flush draw, but outside of that it was just playing a decent number of hands and looking to get paid off.' This is probably the most important thing that I have learnt. At these levels you just don't need to bluff. Putting a pot size bet on the river with air is usually -ev because people call you with anything.-'If I double my bankroll in a session I'll quit on my blind to help avoid risking too high a percentage of my bankroll in any one hand.': I think that this is extremely important to minimize variance.-'500 BB's is plenty for the micro games': lol. Sorry Daniel, I still think you are completely misguided. Getting through a few levels using your rules is likely, but at some stage you will have a bad run where you lose the 8 buy-ins.Nevertheless, I repeat my best wishes and will be fascinated if you succeed.Cheershttp://blindtilt.com/

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Would say even at 0,05-0,10 you need atleast 20 buyins .... swings are so crazy at times with people shoving on you with QQ AK preflop or never give up draws ....even if you play perfect poker you are going to get sucked out on each day... imo 5 buyins is suicide ... even for a nit :club:
    Absolutely agree.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    I have been doing the same thing as Daniel on PStars but i started about 2 weeks prior to him. My roll is at $125 so I'm 3 levels or so along.Anyways here's the backstory:So today after about 100 hands I took a beat where i was all-in for around $20 at a .10-.25 table w/ Kings and some guy calls me with pocket 3s and makes a set on the turn. I re-bought for another $25 and about 30 hands later found myself having to move in with A-A and K-3-8 on the board. I was called by someone with K-10 and sure enough the river came a K.So now my roll was cut in half in one day, and my overall question is should I be putting a limit on how many hands I play in one session? After reading DN's post on his progress I saw that he rarely plays more than 100 hands at a time. So do you guys think I should be regulating the # of hand I'm playing or did I just take a couple bad beats and I should get back to the grind???
    I don't understand why limiting hand number would achieve anything???? DN doesn't play more than 100 hands because he is only playing at one table. What you experienced is the bad side of variance, which happens to everyone, and is the exact reason why you won't succeed with only 5 buy-ins. You are so far off...20 buy-ins is the absolute minimum number of buy-ins you should have at 10c25c NL, but I recommend at least 30. I use 35. I guess you guys just have to learn the hard way!

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Ok, my bankroll doubled tonight! I wish I could say it was because of my skill but I got very lucky. I was treading water up and down at .1/.2 so I said what he heck and bought in the 25NL game(my favorite level so far). On the first rotation I picked up sevens hit a set against Qs and doubled up. Bankroll now at $51 dollars. I know I could have lost it all. But it seems there are fewer donkeys at 25NL. Good Luck All! (except against me)P.S. What level should I play now?
    LOL....so now that you have had a win at 25NL, with $51 you should move to.....ummmm........well 1c/2c NL!! Even at 2c/5c you only have 10 buyins. The variance Gods will get you at some stage with only 10 buy-ins. Just had a look at my stats for 2008...the biggest downswing I had was 14 buyins, and I also had another seperate downswing of 13 buyins. This year...so far so good with only a 2 buyin downswing.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    I think your math is off. Way off. I'm doing this myself, having started from about $12 on the .02 tables. I'm ~30,000 hands in and running at over 25bb/100 and I just got my roll big enough to play the .10 tables (using bankroll management that will prevent expected variance from busting me, of course).No way this works out to $100,000 in 90,000 hands.My stats:.01/.02 NL13,603 hands+$108.2539.79 BB/100.02/.05 NL14,790 hands+172.8523.37 BB/100By my calculations DN would need 175,333 hands if he follows the rules at the top of this thread.
    Firstly, congrats on your outstanding win-rate over 28,000 hands. This is of course unsustainable, even at these levels. Impress me when you have played 100,000 hands at 10/25c NL or 25c/50c NL.When I get a spare moment I will redo my maths but I am willing to concede that I may have miscalculated. But your result just reinforces my point...that a lot of hands will need to be played to achieve the target.So far in 2 weeks, Daniel has played 668 hands (updated today so probably accurate). If you are correct, it will take him 11 years to achieve the target!!!!!!! Pick it up Daniel.... at least try multitabling.http://blindtilt.com/

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Interesting discussion about an important topic (ie bankroll management). I agree with holdemIT. Using the 'ensure you only buyin for 1/5th your bankroll' strategy only gives you 8 times to buy-in if you start at $10. This strategy also means that you will often be buying into a table short. There are many short-stackers at the microlimits almost all who play very badly and it is easy to take advantage of them. Nevertheless, if you know what you are doing, undoubtedly it can be very profitable to play short-stacked (e.g buying in with 30-60 big blinds). The online poker tuition sites (certainly Cardrunners; not sure about PokerVT) teach this strategy. And I am sure Daniel would be an effective short stack player. However, I can't help but think that the win-rate is going to be compromised.The other comment relates to variance and how to minimize it. Clearly there are playing styles that can minimize variance thus reducing the possibility of losing a buy-in say 8 times in a row. E.g, trying to avoid playing big pots with overpairs, or TPTK, on seemingly dry boards (and especially drawy boards), and avoid shoving with big draws. Presumably saying "...I'll quit every time I double up" is for this reason, although again this is going to compromise overall win-rate.http://blindtilt.com/

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    When I had a spare moment today I made a quick calculation to work out how many hands it would take to get to $100,000 starting from $10 using Daniel's rules.The answer? If he won at an average of 5bb/100 hands, it would take just over 90,000 hands. If he won at an average of 10BB/100 hands, obviously it would take half that number. For a multi-tabler, 90,000 hands is nothing, but for a single tabler (can anyone confirm that DN is just playing one table?... I can't imagine he plays more than 2 anyway) that is a lot of hands. This of course ignores his main obstacle that I have mentioned before; variance will kill anyone who is only playing with 5 buy-ins. Unless he runs like a God, he will not get passed 10c/25c NL.

    $10 Into $100,000

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    Good luck Daniel but I don't see how you could possibly be successful (I have blogged about it here: http://blindtilt.com/?p=238).I guess I am trying to do the same thing, but I started with $50 at 2/5NL and currently my bankroll is $1,229 with a $50 bonus due around the corner. You can follow my progress here: http://blindtilt.com/ .My current moving up rule is that I must have 35 buy-ins at the higher level! I am playing 10c/25NL 6max atm. My bankroll got up to $1,500 in December and I moved up to 25c/50c NL (30 buy-ins) where I immediately got hammered losing 7 buy-ins in less than 2,000 hands. So Daniel, I just don't think your strategy is going to cope with that entity known as variance.Good luck anyway and I will be following with interest!!

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