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dkelloway

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Posts posted by dkelloway

  1. You can break it down to this. If you have 99 on a board of 8910 with a flush draw and your opponent checks the board texture is such that he will call or raise you with a wide range, the majority of which you are beating. For example lets say he has something like 10J. Any bet you make is +ev no matter what happens on subsequent streets. It doesn't matter if you end up losing the hand because you made the bet in a spot where over the long run you will make money. Obviously in order to maximize your ev you should be betting the largest amount that he will call or raise you. Any time you bet under that amount you are losing value. The reasoning the small ball approach advocates checking is because you can't rebuy, you have a limited number of chips. A great player like negreanu can get into situations where he can make his opponents make big mistakes and play without making mistakes himself. He doesn't want to give his opponents 2-1 on their money when he gets it in so he sits back and waits till he's a huge favorite before he sticks any money in the pot, trusting that he will know the spots better than his opponents. In a cash game its right to get all of your money in here because you just have to worry about maximizing value, you can rebuy if you lose all of your chips. In a tournament situation value isn't as important as survival.The point is that mathematically you are losing value, but for the specific purpose of remaining in the tournament to find a better spot to put your chips in. You are letting a card come off so that your chance of going bust is less. You can argue that checking is deceptive and gets you more money on later streets but most of the time you are going to make less by checking behind with a set on this draw heavy of a board.I don't want to sound preachy, this is my interpretation of the small ball approach
    great post....
  2. Who says you have to bet 60? I take DN's advice to be that you might think about just checking behind there. If one of those bad cards comes on the turn, you might still call, but you'll lose less because the pot is smaller, and also because you have shown less interest in the pot and a villain with a monster hand will bet smaller to try to milk a little value when s/he thinks you don't have much.In the first case, where villain bets half the pot, I think you have to call.BTW, Negreanu wouldn't necessarily agree (as I read him) that you have to raise preflop either. He'd rather not swell the pot until you have the nuts or close to it.
    thanks for the analysis...very helpful
  3. yeah loads of different factors,also very read dependant aswell lol
    ok so say it's the first hand, blinds are 5/10 you all have 1500 chips, you have no reads on your opponent...everyone folds to him, he limps for 10, then you pick up 99 from the CO, you raise to 40, everyone folds, and he calls...then you see the Th 9h Js flop...what do you do if you have no reads on him and he bets 1/2 pot?what do you do if he checks, you bet 60 , and he raises to 180 ?
  4. in Daniel Negreanu's book it says "In these situations, it's often better to check the flop and see what develops on the turn before committing any more chips to the pot. You can even do this with strong hands. For example, if you have 99 on a flop of 9h 10h Js, checking wouldn't be a bad play at all. If the turn card is a 7,8, queen, king, or heart, you could limit a loss that may have been inevitable."What do you guys think of this? on that flop with 99, wouldn't you want to get it all in?

  5. Daniel, I was recently reading McManus' "Positively Fifth Street" and he talks about how you busted out of the 2000 WSOP ME when you got your aces cracked.Along with the beats you took that you explained in this blog at the LA Poker Classic, Medic took you out of recent tournament where you also went out on aces.You love cracking other players aces, but obviously you hate when your aces get cracked.As Lon McCearn said when you kicked out that amateur in the WSOP ME "pocket aces aren't all what they're cracked up to be".I know your smallball approach is "live by the gun, die by the gun", but can you please tell us a story where you won a big hand or tournament on aces?

  6. I actually took this hand from a WPT final table that I watched between Erick Lindgren and The Grinder. Erick had the K-J and checked the turn. The Grinder thought about betting, but then decided to check and take a free card with 3c 5c, an open ended draw. The river was a 3, Erick bet, and Grinder thought for a long time about calling but then finally folded the pair of threes. Do I agree with Erick's play? YES! In this situation checking is the best play available to you. If Grinder was planning on calling you on the flop to steal the pot on the turn, betting the turn would take that play away from him. The board isn't all that scary so there isn't much to protect against. Also, he could easily have you beat. No need making the pot any bigger than it needs to be out of position against a great player. I say check the turn and do a combination of A) minimizing your losses, while at the same time B) allowing the Grinder to bluff his money off to you if he chooses to. The only thing I would have done differently was probably check the river against an aggressive player like the Grinder. A better chance he'd bluff at it or value bet a worse hand than him calling a bet from you on the river.
    Daniel,I understand your reasoning and the fact that you emphasize pot control. At first I thought checking was the better play, but betting the turn can get weaker kings to call, and protect from the draw incase he had 53. But the Grinder is very capable of floating to try to steal the pot, and double barrelling does take this play away from him...if he raises you can fold. But, if you check and call his turn bet, what will you do on the river if he fires a big bet?
  7. Did anyone else listen to this, I thought it was hilarious...DN was ripping everyone apart in the nicest and funniest kind of ways. I love it when he uses different voices when talking about other players. btw, that Clonie "McGowan" part was hilarious.Also, thanks for the explanation on the math vs feel players and pot odds. It helped me clarify how to think about a bet on the river. I think that T.J. example is pretty extreme, but I think it illustrated the point, he's not a calling station on the river like Andy Bloch.all in all, a great episode

  8. I heard Gavin Smith say that to counter his smallball strategy you have to vary your continuation bet amounts and frequencies, and you must be able to check a good hand to the smallballer who has position on you, then you throw in a raise or call depending on the strength of your hand, board texture, read..etc

  9. First, i would have bet atleast 1/2 pot on the flop .As played I bet 1/2 of the pot b/c you want to play a medium sized pot with your TPGK, if he raises, i'll probably fold. I like betting here because he could be "floating here" or be bluffing with an unimproved pocket pair like 55 or 66 here.

  10. This hand kind of reminds me of Dan Harrington's 2004 WSOP squeeze play. We all know how tight he is. He noticed Arieh raising from every position with marginal starting hands. Raymer calls with A2 knowing this. So, dan took his 62 and reraised them big... and they both folded. So, if you're projecting that type of image I think it's ok to raise to $10,000 here since it will be respected and you know that the caller doesn't need a great hand to call his raise.Also, your hand is garbage, if you had something like 87s where you would like to see a flop with I would prob just call, but since your hand is so bad, you're going to make this play with lesser hands than you're going to call with.

  11. I would call, and fold to a bet if another high card comes out. However, if he calls, i'll bet 1/2-2/3 of the pot to try to take it away from him if a low card comes. Your call on the flop is basically a bluff...With a good turn bet, you could make him fold TT or a lower PP, but he's not folding the overpairs and AJ

  12. Good book, teaches you how to make a decision on a hand like a pro.He goes through the mental checklist which is helpful. Also, unlike HOH3, its easier to read and he goes through hands that he played, not that others played, so he will tell you exactly what he thought in the situation. It's the LGB in practice

  13. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com BB (t1480)UTG (t1490)UTG+1 (t1780)MP1 (t1610)Hero (t1560)MP3 (t1690)CO (t1260)Button (t1460)SB (t1170)Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q :) A :D .2 folds, MP1 raises to t60, Hero calls t60, MP3 calls t60, 2 folds, SB calls t50, 1 fold.Flop: (t260) A :club: 3 :) K :D (4 players)SB checks, MP1 bets t160, Hero raises to t420, MP3 folds, SB folds, MP1 calls t260.Turn: (t1100) T :D (2 players)MP1 checks, Hero checks.River: (t1100) 6 :) (2 players)MP1 bets t200, Hero calls t200.Final Pot: t1500 How did i play it?I checked turn because it put the straight possibilities out there, also I raised flop because if villan had AK, AA, or KK he'd reraise all in, and i could just fold.Should i have bet turn to protect against diamonds?

  14. I call. You can't play the hand like that if you're going to fold to a weird bet at the end. Look at it from his perspective, you decide to raise pf then check behind when the ace comes. To him, you've probably have some sort of draw or a high pair like QQ. You show weakness again by making a goofy bet that he calls. He could be easily floating you or he could have a draw. the river card was a blank, that card prob didn't help him, and if he did check the straight on the turn (unlikely) why would he bet so much? Typically a set raises somewhere here.I call the river bet, to him, you have a mediocre holding and he can force you off of it.

  15. Villain is 26/4/.5 after 35 handsPokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com CO ($174.85)Button ($218.40)SB ($130.35)BB ($282.95)UTG ($210.45)Hero ($502.40)Preflop: Hero is MP with A :D A :club: . UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, SB calls $8, BB calls $7, UTG calls $7.Flop: ($36) 2 :D 4 :) 7 :D (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $16, Hero raises to $40, SB raises to $121.35, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero?Are we really folding this getting 2.5-1? Is he playing an overpair around 30% of the time here to make a call correct?

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