Shimmering Wang

I disagree. It's a lot easier to learn to call a game than it is to learn to be a good defender. Worst case, the manager can relay pitches from the dugout, but there's no similar back-up plan for actual defense. Regardless, he was so good offensively that he's a no-brainer HOFerWang

No, I drilled the **** out of them tonight. Probably one of the ten strongest plays I've seen all year. The Braves have been undervalued on the road most of the year ("OMG BRAVES CAN'T WIN ON THE ROAD..."), and overvalued at home ("BUT ARE LIGHTS OUT AT HOME!"). Tonight the books installed the Braves as slight favorites to pick-em (I got the line at ATL +107) on the road against a very young pitcher who has been awesome in minimal action. (Coming into tonight, Volstad had pitched 11 innings of .84 ERA ball, and was very good in his first start.) Of course, the public was on the Marlins at

Okay. Just offering some friendly advice. I hope you don't ever fill out cards with that kind of action...

Yeah but Aaron Miles so clutch

You guys need to read my thread in sports general

Yeah, I got a copy. I read the intro and about half of chapter one at work yesterday, and it's good stuff. I think I'm going to like it. As far as developing software is concerned, I probably know so very little as to be less-than-useless. I considered paying somebody (NapaDon, maybe?) to go back through wagerline data from years past and tracking some trends for me, with respect to:Price vs. Consensus vs. Value. (Something that would help me answer the question: "Is there inherent value in a baseball favorite between -101 and -115 that is getting less than 45% of the action at wagerline?

You can see why, as a sportsbettor, I take every opportunity I can to fade the Public. Everyone is just so stupid.

Yeah, this will be my first year with a functional, coherent framework from which to attack College and NFL football. I already plan on making an NCAA football and NFL football gambling thread where we can share leans and track records. Should be pretty fun, especially since I plan on directing snide remarks at anybody who doesn't the game just like I do (because I am a good person).Wang

Can not make an argument for a player who has thrown about half-a-season of MLB baseball, at a position where injury and early-breakdown is commonplace. Well, you could make an argument, but it would fail miserably.

What method? Contrarianism? Or flat betting? No way in hell I flat bet college football, but I'll be taking a poke with some really bad teams this year...Wang

Okay, so I make a little book on the side, mostly with 3 or 4 guys that play cards where I work. Most of them are pretty small time, quarter players. I take their action, and either use it to get a better price on the games I want, book it off at a better price on one of my accounts and lock it a guaranteed 2-3% profit, or sell it off to a local who wants his books balanced, and in exchange lets me know what kind of action he's getting on sides (an agreement that works well for both of us). Anyway, the last few days, I've had a pretty action-packed card. I've had between 8x and 13x on the

Well, actually just because they have like 23 1-run wins, and they are -- at best -- a little better than a .500 team. My dream is to see a huge sportscenter/baseball tonight focus-piece on them to drive the value up even more. Ravech: "Can the Cardinals contend? Steve Phillips?"Steve Phillips: "I'm retarded, and my hair is freakishly silver, but yes." (Correct answer: no)Remember that PM I sent you, in which I said it was going to be sweet when the Cardinals swept the Padres? Luckily, I am going to get those 4 units back and then some by turbo-fading Lohse and co. I've still managed to

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be so overvalued that it's not even funny.EDIT- Actually it's kinda funny

100% likely, it appears. I had the Dodger-faces today, and pretty much gave up on the game after the 3-run first from the D'bags. I was pleasantly surprised to see 5-4 Dodgers in the top of the 9th, guaranteeing me a cash on the over, and giving me a 2.5x freeroll for the game if they could hold.Broxton made it reasonably intersting, but I'll take that gift. Wang

This is unacceptable.

God, my boy Henrik Stenson barely makes the cut, then comes out clubs blazing to shoot even par in the morning, and, in the clubhouse at +8, he'll be right in contention for a top 5 spot tomorrow.

Simon Wakefield is in the clubhouse at +5. He could be 2 or 3 strokes ahead of the field by the time this thing ends.

Yes. Haha, yeah, I don't think that's gonna happen. You'll be lucky to get out of that one with your shorts. 7.5 was a pretty ****ed up number for the books to throw out there. When the Pirates tie that stupid game up, I'll end up 3-1 on my totals for the day, which is not at all how I expected to finish up there. I still have an outside shot at ending the day in decent shape (read: somewhere near even).EDIT: FUCKING PADRES RUIN EVERYTHING

Oh my God. I am going to go 4-9 AT BEST right now. What a terrible week. Come Sunday, I am very, very, very possibly going to be -30x or worse for the week.Just a contrarian bloodbath.

Yup. KC has ****ed me in the ass all year long, so I particularly hate this play.

The idea that "most series end up being 2-1, so I should bet on a team that's lost the first two games of the series" is definitely flawed. There's no reason to believe that games 1 and 2 will somehow influence the outcome of game 3. That being said, if the Cubs embarrass the Pirates in games 1 and 2, the Pirates will probably have even more value in game 3 than usual. Or if the first two games of a series gave gone over the total by 6 and 7 runs respectively, there's going to be a lot of value in the under, especially if the books throw a super-low number out there, like 8.0. That's a dre

The one for the Cube was pretty good, slightly off-kilter RPG fare. Has anybody ever played any of the Disgaea games? I played one for the PS2 a while back, and it was probably the most fun I've had playing a video game in years. Might have to borrow a PS2 to crank that bitch out.

To explain, sportsmack, I'll make a poker analogy. During a string of ten tournaments, you make a few trivial cashes, but otherwise bomb. During those same ten tournaments I make 3 final tables, top 3 them all, and even win 1. At this point, it looks like I'm a better tournament player than you. It turns out, however, that -- during my sick run -- I've won 72% of my races, never lost in an 80-20 spot, and flopped a set almost 15% of the time I've had pocket pairs.You, however, have won 39% of your races, had AA cracked 5 times and KK 3, and flopped 2 sets with 75 pocket pairs. Isn't it ve

I'd like to make a quick point. (<---- totally unnecessary introductory sentence)It is a fine line between searching for value using basic statistical metrics and using that data to evaluate the strength of side, and straight-up handicapping a game. We're not trying to discern on face which side is most likely to win, or what the REAL price should be; we're simply trying to determine whether the public's misperceptions are likely to drive a price up or down. Keep in mind, the book knows all this -- Adjusted Standings, Luck, FIP vs. ERA, etc. -- already. I operate under the assumption t

A list of relevant statistics, both those of perceived importance, and their counterparts of real importance.Wins/Losses vs. Baseball Prospectus Adjusted StandingsWins and losses are generally a good barometer of how good a team is, but in limited (sometimes as limited as a full season) sample sizes, the standings can play tricks, and lead the public to perceive a team to be significantly better than they are. The solution? BP Adjusted Standings. Very basically, they take the key numbers -- on base percentages, slugging, home runs, etc. -- and then normalize it to minimize the importanc