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Shimmering Wang

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Everything posted by Shimmering Wang

  1. I played it, as you can see by the Friday afternoon post from another thread. The Cubs were getting like 75% of the action at Wagerline. I debated for a good long while, since I really WANTED to make that play -- like you said, it looked like great value, didn't it? -- but in the end I saw like 30 straight posts on Covers declaring the Cubs a stone lock, making it a pretty easy play. Lannan was undervalued a few weeks ago, and might be overvalued now. Jason Marquis (and Dempster and all those retards) still sucks
  2. Poppy Hills was making a joke about you asking about the size of my unit. Unit is a synonym for penis.Yeah, a proper bankroll would be 100x, but during football season my standard play will be 3x, so (shrug), it's pretty much a 33 unit bankroll.And, yes, you'll never hear me straight handicapping an NFL game. I'll give you some analysis, but it'll mostly be ex-post justification to make the play look more reasonable when it just looks/feels/smells like a total shitbomb. I'll allow that it might be possible, but I know I can't, and I know it takes more than "Oh my god Tampa Bay is a dog BET
  3. I've been kicking this idea around for a while, and only started taking my approach super seriously around February of this year, specifically when I decided Kansas was one of the best teams ever and bought a huge stake in KU National Championship futures. Things really, finally clicked in the Final Four when I saw the KU/UNC line and thought, "Oh my god, that line is bad and I know exactly why." I showed a small-medium sized profit on NCAA football last season, and made 3 NFL bets (all of which lost). I spent the entire baseball season refining my approach, which will -- obviously -- be di
  4. Evidence is for faux-intellectuals. I bet you have never even seen a sunset or lain with a woman. Your idea of a good time is programming in FORTRAN.I am going to get my insults confused here, but it is very likely that you are also a homosexual.
  5. I had it winnowed down to about 5 Beach House songs and eventually flipped a coin, literally, to pick between Master of None and Apple Orchard. Apple Orchard was probably my strongest lean, though. I really like your "Did You See the Words" suggestion, and personally have no objection to its addition to the mix. Pick two songs, and add them. You're certainly entitled to play this for a double. I like this song a lot, because my last name is mentioned repeatedly in the chorus and I am an egomaniac.
  6. Alright boys, we are very close to having a complete list. I'll give it another 24 hours or so, and then we can force somebody to put it together. If there's any extra space, I call dibs on adding "Sunken Treasure" by Wilco
  7. So I got into an argument with a fellow sports bettor today. He's a smart guy, and I ran my basic contrarian methodology by him:Wang says: "The books know the true odds of an outcome, and are profit maximizers who will take risks if it means increased profitability. They will knowingly put themselves in jeopardy if they know it will increase their equity."He says: "I disagree. I think the books are totally risk-averse, and are simply going for split action. In almost all cases, they'll put out numbers that guarantee them as close to even action as they can get. Sometimes this is impossibl
  8. Baltimore to win the AFC North +805 (risking 2x)I've been mulling this play over for a while. Baltimore was pretty unlucky last year. They lost a ton of fumbles and had some injury problems in the defensive backfield. I think Cleveland is badly overrated, and the only difference between Baltimore and Pitt's schedule is:Pitt: New England and San DiegoBalty: Oakie and MiamiHmm. In terms of win expectancy, it's almost like Balty starts with a full-game head-start or something. I'll take 8-1 on those odds. Go Balty.
  9. Why do you think 1% seems low? You're right that the Bluejays are outperforming their record, but that doesn't change the fact that they're 5 full games behind the Red Sox (a team that is ALSO significantly underperforming w/r/t their Pythag and 3rd order W/L), even farther behind the Rays, and still have a (fucking luck-sack) Twins team to contend with. Plus, the BlueJays have an incredibly tough schedule left (opp. 3rd order winning %age as of Aug. 18 of .571, the most difficult of any team in the running), though they do play 55% of their games at home, which is a few more than the Sox, a
  10. I've been listening to a lot of Gas/Wolfgang Voigt. Gas, Zauberberg, Kônigforst, and Pop. They're all fantastic.
  11. You know it, man. I'll give you a call later this week. Give Amy and Gordy my best. And, uh, hope you don't run into your probation officer out there anywhere. What're the odds? I mean, that it happens again....?
  12. Haha, you're hilarious. Are you really leaving for Vegas Friday Morning? If so, I'll definitely ship you a few weekend golf locks. Too bad you're not going to be there on Thursday Morning; Anthony Kim is a LOCK to outplay Furyk this weekend. Somehow I have like 5x on it. I'm retarded.I bet against the Tigs every single game in the Royals series, and that worked out okay (for them, not me). If the Tigers see Gavin Floyd or Beurhle, just drill them. They both suck so bad, but gamblers love them.Have fun in Vegas, Big Bear. Regards,Derek
  13. Keith Law, respected scout with strong sabermetric bent, before this year had this to say:"Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic 83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed. The fastball and slider are already big league out pitches and in relief, he can probably get away without the other two pitches. Chamberlain has a great pitcher’s
  14. I like the Marlins +1.5, Phillies +1.5, Cardinals +1.5, and Sox +1.5 (scoreless through one)Will bet 10 on all
  15. Yeah, I was on them in every one of those games.
  16. I blame you, because I'm not listening to the radio and the TV guys were very careful.
  17. My life has reached a new low.One of my friends found out he missed my birthday by stumbling upon my FCP profile...
  18. There's always been this weird conception that Pharrell is some 25 year old wunderkind who's been running shit since he was 17. I remember looking it up on Wikipedia a few years ago because my retarded housemate was so sure he was our age.Wang
  19. I got to bag it up.The original is probably one of my 20 favorite songs of all time. The cover is pretty much just a rehash of the original, but I found it entertaining.
  20. I will bet with you tomorrow. Post the games you want whenever, and I'll pick like 5 games out for 10 apiece. We'll settle when we get to 100ish. I don't know if I've ever transferred money with anybody here, but I think at least one or two goons will vouch that I'm reasonably legit. A few people here owe me money, and I'll just have one of them ship you money at P-Stars or something when I lose. Worst case scenario, if I owe you 100, I'll just send you a money order. I would never screw a fellow gambler. Scout's honor.Fucking Royals are killing me right now. If you'd taken my action t
  21. I don't think there's any way I can get you money when I lose. I know Bizzle owes me like 60 bucks. If you like the other sides of any of those matchups, or if anybody just wants to take my plays and use them for fun and/profit (read: inevitable loss), that's fine.
  22. I like the Rangers, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, Mariners, Brewers, and D'bags
  23. Also, Cal Ripken was pretty effing awesome during the 10-year stretch from 1982-91. Remember, he was the first shortstop of his kind, really. (<--- I hear this a lot, but I'm not sure if it is true. Regardless, he was a rare breed.
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