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NickCave

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Posts posted by NickCave

    Random Baseball Observations

    in Sports- Baseball

    Posted

    If they get Choo or Ellsbury, as well as re-sign Scherzer, it's a big goddamn win party for Detroit.

     

     

     

    This is all pretty great. Only things I'd add is 1) that the health aspects of most projections take a lot of averages into account, and while the regression is important, I think they may overestimate how much a skinny 2B with a huge injury history should maintain his health and how much a fat 1B (who can move to DH) and has an incredible injury history may maintain it better than we expect. 2) Fielder had some insane peripheral stats at the beginning of the year. At some point he got divorced, and it was a bit messy, which I can imagine would have a real effect on anyone. When someone's first down year comes with reasonable peripherals and a reasonable 'human' explanation, I'm going to put a lot of stock into a potential comeback.

     

    I don't like that the Tigers may well have traded some present for future when their team is build to win in the short-term (not that they'll necessary be uncompetitive in the long run, but the future is always less certain, and the present looks very good). That's a minor quibble though. Like I said, if they feel this positions them to sign Scherzer long-term, I'd take Kinsler + Ellsbury/Choo over Fielder any day, and Dombrowski has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

     

    Yeah, but trading Fielder allows them to put a better team on the field, even if the roster stays the same. In terms of resource allocation, they were heavy at 1B/DH, and light elsewhere. Cabrera getting off 3B, where he is really a disaster, and back to 1B where he is only regular bad, is helpful. They had no internal 2B solution. Their top prospect is, ostensibly, a 3B.

     

    Plus, the money they save isn't, like, not going to be spent. I can't imagine they'll NOT add pieces with that extra dough

    Random Entertainment Observations

    in Entertainment: Television, Movies & Music

    Posted

    Black people believe magic is real. I've been doing this stuff since middle school, and I've gotten pretty good at it. I can walk into a room, and if you give me a basic set of supplies, I can entertain a group of adults for 45 minutes, no problem.

     

    But if you give me that same group of adults and, say, 15 black people? The entertainment will last for 3 hours, or however long it takes for one of them to pull the fire alarm or try to kill me.

     

    I'm not even really trying to be racist, but BLACK PEOPLE LOVE MAGIC. That shit works every time, and they react to it like you just detonated an atomic bomb. "OH SHIT SIX OF HEARTS TIME TO GO BABE TIME TO GO WE GOT TO GET OUT OF HERE LET'S GO COME ON!"

     

    Every time.

    • Like 1

    Random Baseball Observations

    in Sports- Baseball

    Posted

    Well we needed a 2nd baseman since it sounded as if Infante wasn't getting resigned. Now we move Miggy back to 1st and then we finally have a spot open at 3rd to bring in our top prospect, Castellanos. Hes been playing LF I think last year since he thought his chances of ever cracking 3B in Detroit was slim to none. Well now the spot is open I think it is his spot to lose in the spring. I assume we then take the money saved and get a closer and LF which are much needed at this time.

     

    If none of that happens I hate this move.

     

    If they spend money on a closer, shame on them. Just do what the Rays do, and ****ing turn somebody else's trash pieces into a good bullpen.

     

    Also, the word on the street is that Castellanos wasn't making the progress the Tigers wanted to see at 3B, and that maybe his future, regardless of major league roster, is in the OF. I'm not sure how true that is, but I imagine it'll take him at least half-a-year to get reacclimated to 3B.

     

    I say, take that 75MM and keep it in your pocket. Sign a few lotto ticket relievers, maybe a utility guy or two, see if you can use it to help acquire either a league average 3B or LF, then use the rest to keep at least some of your current talent around. (I'm looking at you, Doug Fister.)

    Random Baseball Observations

    in Sports- Baseball

    Posted

    Also, how the **** can my post with Phil Coke video only have two likes? I'd never been more confident in my life that I'd snag a like from THE MACHINE than when I posted that. I mean, yeah, sure, if it were a GIF, or something, but other than that?

     

    "I DON'T REMEMBER HORSE CRAP PITCHERS"

    Random Baseball Observations

    in Sports- Baseball

    Posted

    I think this is a win for the Tigers, but not as big a win as most people think. The biggest thing (apart from the $75MM the Tigers save lolololololol), from my perspective, is that Kinsler just fits better with the Tigers' needs than Fielder. Cabrera/Fielder/Martinez was just a horrible logjam. That's 3 DHs trying to play 1B/3B/DH. Getting Cabrera to 1B will be a huge.

     

    Fielder is a super good baseball player who had a down year. Every time I looked at his stats, I was trying to find something that suggested he was deteriorating physically, losing bat speed, losing athleticism, whatever, and I never could. There was no rhyme or reason to it; he just kinda sucked. I would have guessed he'd rebound pretty well next year even if he stayed in Detroit. I wouldn't be shocked if he returns to .300+/.400+/.500+ levels over the next few years and finishes top 5 in the triple crown stats. I have no problem saying he's a better player than Kinsler, even though I'm sure they'll project similarly for next year.

     

    Kinsler is kind of "blah" anymore. He's an average defensive 2B who's probably a slightly above average hitter, and that has plenty of value. He's 31 or 32, and his skills have started to deteriorate already. Much better 2B have been done in their early-to-mid 30s for no reason. If Kinsler ends up as a league-average player over the course of his deal, I'll probably be okay with that. I'd rather him have two good years and then fall off a cliff, but whatever.

     

    Again, good deal for the Tigs, and I'd have pulled the trigger myself no questions, but let's not forget how good Fielder is, and how long it's been since Kinsler was great. The cost savings are the big thing. Anything you can do to get out of that Fielder deal, which was destined for disaster the day it was inked, is worth it. If the Tigers can use the 70MM+ they've saved (and it could be more, since I'm pretty sure that money is being shipped out post 2016) to upgrade the roster or maintain flexibility, even a little, then their chances of winning a ring jumped significantly.

     

     

    I tell you, having a general manager like David Dombrowski is really, really comforting. Every year, I go into the off season or the trade deadline thinking "well, look, there's not much Dombrowski can do, his hands are kinda tied," and almost every year, he does something to make the team better. He's never been a super stats-oriented GM, but he's really adjusted as well as anyone can. He evaluates his own talent incredibly well (Maybin, Miller, Turner, Edwin Jackson, etc.), the players he acquires in trades tend to exceed expectations (Fister! Scherzer! Cabrera! Jackson! Sanchez!), and he's totally willing to do anything he needs, even when it involves basically admitting a mistake (Fielder). He's flexible, smart, and it seems like he's willing to learn and adjust.

     

    Hell, he just hired BRAD AUSMUS. And Brad Ausmus just hired a DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR, Matt Martin, whose job it is to work with advance scouts to, basically, set up shifts to maximize defensive efficiency, among other things. (Here is a great free BPro piece from Gabe Kapler about him.) Dombrowski has always been decidedly old school in most respects, but he's smart enough to be like, "I understand math, and also learn new things." Hall of Fame GM. I am scared he'll get the job as commissioner when Selig is gone. He'd be PHENOMENAL as Commish, but I don't want to lose him as GM

     

     

    Edit: Excerpt from the Kapler piece on Martin:

     

    I remember the first time I saw Matt at Tiger Town in Lakeland, Florida in 1997. In an ecosystem where the coaches wore golf shirts, Matt rocked a full Run DMC-style sweat suit and baseball cap. “That’s odd,” I thought to myself

     

    This Kapler piece is one of the best pieces of baseball writing I've ever read. It's long, but it is (considering it is written by an ex ballplayer) shockingly well written prose-wise, and the perspective and insight are unmatched. He talks about, for an example I'll close with, what happens in a scouting meeting:

    Here’s an archetypal script of a conversation behind the scenes:

    Baseball man with MLB service time: “I don’t think (insert prospect) will ever hit in the big leagues. He doesn’t have the bat speed.”

    Collective voice of the meeting: “He’s right.” “I saw him in the Eastern League and he struggled.”

    Baseball man without MLB service time: “I disagree. I’ve seen him get to plus velocity pitches in off the plate consistently. He will hit at the next level.”

    Collective voice of the meeting: Quiet. Skeptical eye contact. Queasy energy.

    In subsequent hypothetical conversations, it would be commonplace for men who were in the meeting to gossip about the fact that baseball man no. 2 played very little professional baseball, treating that as a sign that the man with the highest level of experience—and with the most service time as a player—owns an opinion with more merit.

    This game of ours functions like an old boys’ club. Relationships act as catalysts to position acquisition within an organization. In a perfect world, personal relationships would be the deciding factor when all else is equal. In baseball, relationships weight the scales more than merit, and therefore clubs lose the opportunity to benefit from superb assets like Matt.

    The Polling Place

    in General

    Posted

    Ron Mexico - 3 (Essay21, Ron Mexico, Napa Don)

    NickCave - 8 (NickCave, brvheart, ShakeZuma, BigDMcGee, David Sklansky, TommyGavin81, The Ocho, The Machine)

    David Sklansky - 3 (JubilantLankyLad, mrfritz, iBeaver)

     

     

    NickCave has been eliminated.

     

    Ron Mexico vs David Sklansky in the Final of FCP Survivor.

     

    Man, finally! There's one subplot I can't wait to see resolved, and it's a question so fascinating that I can't believe I didn't get eliminated earlier.

     

     

    WHO WILL TOMMY GAVIN VOTE FOR NOW?

    The Polling Place

    in General

    Posted

    Changing my vote to Nick because that's terrible.

     

    Changing my vote back to me, because, yeah holy crap that was pretty bad. Am I allowed to concede? If so, on that note, I concede. I'm not sure I can bear the indignity of watching the votes continue to roll in.

     

    Congratulations David Sklansky and Ron Mexico, 2013 FCP OT General Survivor Finalists.

    The Polling Place

    in General

    Posted

    It's impressive how well Sklansky and McGee have pulled everyone's strings so far. Is there any doubt, after me, they'll go for Mexico?

     

    On that note, even though I have no idea if it will do more harm or good, I am pleading SINCERELY for all support to be thrown behind Mexico. He hasn't played politics, he hasn't traded alliances... he has just been his real self.

     

    #RonMexico2013

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