troutsmart
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Posts posted by troutsmart
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At around 10k hands, you will start to get a vague reflection of your play. Don't be surprised though if your results are different after 50k or 100k hands. Some stats won't vary much, but others, such as BB/100 hands could vary dramatically.
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Easy automatic all-in... only superman with x-ray vision can fold here.
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20 to 1 chip disadvantage going heads-up after suffering a bad beat. End up getting several fortunate breaks and narrowed it down to about 3 to 1...then was able to actually start playing again. Ended up winning, but not before facing my own scare when I had him on the ropes and the cards started hitting him.
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Live -- $540 at BellagioOnline -- $550
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It should be noted that even when a player does abide by a 300BB bankroll, and plays correctly, they still have a chance of going broke. Skillful play and playing within your bankroll simply reduces the odds that it will happen.
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In tournaments, luck definitely has an enormous factor. A player can never make a mistake and still end up on the rail. I have no idea how that can be quantified.In cash games, luck is significantly reduced, but still remains a significant factor. I'm hesitant to throw out any kind of number, but I'll take the 60/40 edge of skill over luck in any proposition over the long haul.
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This is a rather unique hand. In fact, I'm not sure if I've personally seen a pot such as this, and I thought I had seen everything. As for the way you played the hand, I would have played it the same.
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If I know of upcoming matches that Daniel has, I'll try to get down to Vegas and get a bunch of pictures. I'm kind of a photo nut, and although rather non-changing, this would at least be something unique. Using any flash definitely wouldn't work and the Wynn is pretty poorly lit at the poker room, but I'm sure some good pictures could be taken. I'd have to ask Daniel if it were okay, of course.
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In all likelyhood, you don't need to feel remorse that you might have thrown away the winner, as I'm pretty sure you were toast. However, you do need to concern yourself with your play after the flop. QQ isn't the type of hand to play a larger pot with post flop with an Ace on board. Granted, against a good player, you might take this pot away with your turn play, but in such low blind games, it is very unlikely. Definitely kick up that flop bet. There was $3.50 in the pot, so don't go less than $2. With less, you definitely open up the door to be outplayed, or outdrawn. You have too many things working against you on the hand, and we haven't even talked about position yet.Anyway, GL to you in the future. If I happen to ever be on your table, please void what I've written and revert to the 50c bet.
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September 20, 2004... Biggest pot I've won in Limit: $30/60 Limit at Bellagio...44BBs.... TT on a board of KTTJQ... with 4 players to the river. The Irony: (Excerpt from Poker Journal Entry) "September 20, 2004... -70BB $30/60 Limit @ Bellagio 11.5 Hours . The poker gods blessed me with one great hand, and 50 hands straight from hell!"That would be the largest pot I've won in live limit and the largest live limit loss on the same day.Funny coincidence: This is the first time I saw Mr. Negreanu, as I passed him on my way to the restroom. I came back from that restroom and didn't win another hand.
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I agree that this is the most damaging side-effect of playing beyond what your bankroll allows. As for Akishore, I wish you the best man. I always enjoy reading what you have to share and am confident you'll be back on top soon.Sorry guys didn't read all the posts, but wanted to mention this in case no one mentioned it yet.I don't think the biggest problem moving up limits and playing outside your bankroll is that you could lose most of your bankroll. Yes that is bad, but the worst part is if you play at the higher level, coming back down and playing for much smaller pots seems irrelevant and then people start wanting to "gamble" and don't play their A game. I did that for a while, and luckily I have found my comfort zone. But it took me a while to realize that winning a $100 pot is fine and that I don't need to win $300+ pots to make it exciting. So just remember, when going up in limits the way back down is the hardest thing to do. And if you lose 35% of your roll, you'll have to go down, maybe even a few limits lower, and that is not fun.Good Luck -
A regular player will experience such a downturn every 7-10K hands would be my guesstimate. I don't know, Smash would be able to give you a more actuarate number with his huge database. Larger swings do happen as well. I usually have a -100 BB downswing every 25K hands or so. Take a step back, review your hand histories, and start playing again if you don't see anything amiss. Most downswings are corrected shortly if you play through them. The key is simply to keep your head, and don't do anything drastic. If you're adequetly bankrolled, and playing correctly, you'll soon be back on track. On a sidenote: I did go through what I didn't think was possible from April- June of this year. I was down well in excess of 100BB by May. I've just now recovered back to my April peak in my bankroll. That was a combination of bad variance, and bad play. The bad play was almost undetectable at first, but was rooted in my river play, and folding too much. Bottom line: I got shell shocked and turned into a coward on the river. I believe I could have avoided the 3 month recession of my bankroll if I had stepped down one level earlier than I did and looked closer at my hand histories and pokertracker stats. Good luck to you.
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Move down to the 10c tables if you can... you need at least 300 to play 25c...minimum220 dollar bankroll10/25 cent NLi just won a big pot so im at 156 nowill build it back up -
Barry Greenstein gives a good line in his book An ace on the river, "Stick around. I make worse plays than that one."
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i was going to go into the Ferrari dealership to choose my next car..BUT the lines were past the poker room. So i decided to put my 250k on the red on the roulette wheel... DOH..oh ya that was a dream... Some of the cars you can see from in the Ferrari store..no lineup for that. flop em if ya got emI hate it when it that happens. But you got sooo close to winning two cars. And yes, you can see a lot from inside the store. Actually, you see about everything, just not upclose. You miss out on seeing those gearboxes that can only be described as 'sexy'.
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My friend was playing 3 handed in a MTT last week and had over 75% of the chips in play. It's 5am, in walks his wife, and out goes the plug on the computer. There goes the the trip to NY for the wife.
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Playing in games above my bankroll for sure. After that, playing online poker while heavily drugged up on medication. 1 heavily medicated night= minus 95 BBs.
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I've been to the dealership twice and haven't had to forfeit a nickle. As for the Wynn... I think the Wynn is going to appeal to a certain clientele. It has a more intimate feel than Bellagio, yet retains much of the appeal. The poker room has a dark, yet rich feeling to it. I personlly prefere the Bellagio's poker room to the Wynn's, as I enjoy the lighter feeling. However, I wouldn't hesitate to play at the Wynn. I saw a few name players playing at both poker rooms on the same evening, including Huck Seed, so I imagine many of the pros aren't discriminating either, but are simply going where the game is currently best.Everyone i talked to thought the Wynn was overrated. I happen to agree. Nothing really stuck out. Although the Avenue Q coming at the end of the month will be excellent. Tony award winning production. Dont the charge $10 to walk into the Ferrari dealership? WTF is that?? -
play 2/4...if you loose 100BB...move down
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I'm reraising here in this particular situation. Why? I want to get the money in while I'm very confident that I have the best hand. You have 3 players in the hand, and a LAG acting after you. Yes, you definitely could call here and hope to get everybody for two bets. However, you also allow for a few scenarios to open up on the turn that might not be to your advantage. With the QJ on board and two players calling two bets cold, you are very likly facing an open-ender, or some other straight draw. Now, say the turn comes an Ace, King, Nine, or Eight. These are all potetially dangerous to your hand, not to mention a Jack, or Queen that might fill up a slowplayed two pair by the cold callers. That's 20 cards that could slow you down. You also eliminate giving the players a free card on the turn, however unlikely with a LAG in position (it does happen). If you three-bet the flop, the LAG may cap, and do you really believe that the two cold callers are folding at this point? You can bet the turn and may still get raised. I think this is the kind of hand that I often find my self overcomplicating, when it is a hand that can be played very straight forward. This is the kind of hand that will likely get plenty of action on the turn regardless of a players actions on the flop.
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You're correct in a sense. Yes, the cards your opponent holds can be deducted if you are able to deduce them. However, you will be dealing with a different ratio. Example:You hold A
K 
on the button.You and the big blind(a very solid player) see a flop of T 6 K 
. 2.5BBThe BB checks to you and you bet, he calls. 3.5 BBTurn is the 2 .He checks, you bet, and he check-raises. Let's just look at the option of calling here vs. folding or re-raising. 6.5 BBLet's say you have a dead-on read and are certain your opponent is holding a flush. Normal calculation:Doing the math, we have the 52 cards in the deck - 2(ours)-4 (board) = 46 remaining cards. 46 - 9 (cards that would make us a likely winning flush) = 37. 37 bad cards/9 good cards (outs) = 4.11 to 1.Discounted calculation:We take the 52 cards - 2(ours) - 4 (board) - 2 (opponents hole cards, since we know them to be 2 hearts)= 44 remaining cards. 44 - 7 (7 remaining flush cards in deck)= 37. 37 bad cards/ 7 (outs, adjusted) = 5.29 to 1Either way, it doesn't matter, as you are getting 6.5 to 1 pot odds and are good to go. -
In a 2-5 spread limit game at a casino I frequent, a $50 pot would result in a kill pot on the next hand. The winner would be required to post $5 and the game would change to $5/10 limit on the successive hand. As for strategy, I enjoy these games for one reason: the ability to choke short money. If I'm sitting with $300 or $400 and there are a few stacks with $50-$100, I can put maximum pressure on them with the higher limits. You can walk away with very decent wins in such a game if you're fortunate to pick up hands during the kill pots. However, I'd say that the kill pot is disavantageous to most players in the low limit games as they aren't adequetely bankrolled.
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I'd say that 3 betting this flop is dependent on what action you plan on taking on the turn. Different scenarios-You 3-bet, and he caps. He bets, and you've missed. What do you do?You 3-bet, and he caps. He bets, and you've made a pair. What do you do? Does your plan differ if you've paired your Ace vs. your kicker?You 3-bet and he calls. He checks the turn, and you've missed. What do you do?You 3-bet and he calls. He checks the turn, and you've made a pair. You bet. He checkraises. What do you do?You 3-bet and he calls. He bets out the turn, and you've missed. What do you do?You 3-bet and he calls. He bets out the turn, you've made a pair what do you do?Then there are interesting turn cards, such as the board pairing.If I three-bet this flop, I'm usually looking for a free card on turn and potentially free showdown. Unless this is a habitual check-raiser and LAG player, I will most often take a card off, and fold to a bet on the turn if I don't improve.
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I agree.UTG+1 was semi-loose and aggressive, seemed like he might have missed a club draw and raised in a last ditch to steal the pot, or may have misread me for a missed draw too.
is this math right? (this hand one in 2.7 billion??)
in General Poker Forum
Posted
I'm in your elite company OP. I too had quads taken down by a royal, though I turned my quads vs. flopping them. And I was holding a non-paired pocket (QJ) vs. your pocket (JJ). The odds are the stuff that could give MIT grads a headache. What I found extraordinary in my case was the fact that this hand occured when we were playing 3-handed at the end of a tournament. The hilarious part was the reaction of the 5 people left in the room. When my opponent went all-in on the river, which gave him the royal, I simply said in a rather dry manner as I called, "I have the queen." He flipped over his K
J 
on the board of Q 
Q 
T 
Q 
A 
. I was stunned, as was everybody else, but not less than 10 seconds later we were playing the next hand, and most of the commotion was over. Everybody was talking about the royal, but nobody seemed to care about the quads losing. I still find it one of the quirky moments in my life that seems surreal.