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Everything posted by aim786

  1. Actually, variance and winrate are very much related. The mistake you made is in that bolded sentence. It should read "The difference between your expected return and how much of the pot you receive, squared, is the variance."Let's look at a few examples to make everything clear. In all 3 examples we're assuming each of us is putting up $100:1) A Game of ChessIntuitively, we know that the better player will win every single time. Therefore, his expectation in this game is $100 and his variance is 0.2) AA vs KK AIPFIn this situation, intuitively we know that our expectation will be fairly h
  2. Vs a button open, KTo is a pretty standard 3bet in the SB imo. As for the hand, I think it's a standard call down after the turn.
  3. Actuary,There are 2 sides to the equation. One side should represent when you check behind on the turn, the other should represent when you bet. Therefore, the equality you made should actually be on the same side, with the other side containing an equation to show the EV from simply checking behind on the turn.
  4. > x*(5.5)+(1-x)*(18/46*(5.5+1)-28/46*(1)); 3.565217391 x + 1.934782609> 18/46*(5.5); 2.152173913> solve(3.565217391*x+1.934782609 = 2.152173913,x); 0.06097560966That's how I'd solve it, which is pretty much exactly what opie did. You should start posting more man, we need more math guys around here!
  5. Wow, some really good stuff here. In my opinion, BB has shown extreme strength in this hand, and therefore I think the turn is an easy fold.When BB cold calls on the flop, and then pops the turn, his range is as follows imo (in order of most likely to least likely): J9, 33, 99, QsTs, Ts8s, JJ. Against that range, you are abt a 9-1 dog, clearly you are not gettin the effective odds to call down.A general rule I use in HU situations that I think would apply here is when I 3bet on the flop and bet the turn, I will generally fold alot of my one pair hands to further action against passive/straig
  6. Well, I for one actually ran pretty well at min bet in july. Lol I guess I kind of deserve it since I do share my bday with a guy named DN!Anyways, July Goals:-30k hands of 5/10Well, probably closer to 28.5k hands at 5/T and a few shots at 10/20 mixed in, but the total # of hands is still >30k.-5k profitMade about 7.8k this month.-5-10k hands of NL Nope, did'nt end up playin a single hand of NL.August Goals:-30k hands at 5/10 and 10/20-$8k profit
  7. In fact, getting 7 to 1 preflop, its pretty much profitable to call with any 2 suited in this spot.
  8. I actually think this is a pretty straightforward protection raise on the turn, but what do I do if he 3bets me?
  9. Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J. SB posts a blind of $5. BB raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, SB (poster) calls, BB calls.Flop: (9 SB) 9, 6, 5(2 players)SB bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls.Turn: (9 BB) 4(2 players)SB checks, BB bets, Hero...BB is 45/16/1.5SB is 42/25/0.9No reads at the time of this hand.
  10. I would fold on the flop here. Even if I have seen him donking alot, this is not the hand I want to "look him up" with.
  11. 3bet river.As an aside, 54s is close in my book for calling a raise from MP, but is still a muck.
  12. While I do feel sorry for Zach, here's some inspiration (today's results):
  13. Yesterday:Lol funny thing is I usually run worse than anybody over in SHLHE.
  15. Well, you don't see this everyday...Full Tilt PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $5/$106 playersConverterPre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A T UTG calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.Flop: Q 7 2 (10SB, 5 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks.Turn: A (5BB, 5 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks.River: 9 (5BB, 5 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks.Results:Final pot: 5BBUTG showed 6h 7sHero showed Ah ThCO showed Kc JhSB showed 4c 2cBB showed Qh Qc
  16. STFU I'm seriously on tilt for life after your lil run there...
  17. Raise pf! Rest of hand is good. I would raise T9s from any position pf.
  18. The only time you don't 3bet here is when UTG+1 has a very low pfr, as many players at this level are the 40/5/x type.
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