Check out this hand. Pay particular attention to the river play by Sorcerer and tell me what you think. I wasn't involved in the hand, but we argued over this, so let me know.
Hand #4892768-2392 at Camas ($2/$4 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 16/Mar/05 08:42:39
chuckie2000 is at seat 0 with $45.75.
pooClown is at seat 1 with $125.75.
Scott31 is at seat 2 with $218.50.
SteveGriff is at seat 3 with $247.
insunkim is at seat 4 with $189.50.
The_Sorcerer is at seat 5 with $207.25.
Taff 31 is at seat 6 with $49.25.
JMACHELOR is at seat 7 with $199.75.
nexiar is at seat 8 with $73.
karibasa is at seat 9 with $91.
The button is at seat 5.
Taff 31 posts the small blind of $1.
JMACHELOR posts the big blind of $2.
chuckie2000: -- --
pooClown: -- --
Scott31: 2c 2d
SteveGriff: -- --
insunkim: -- --
The_Sorcerer: -- --
Taff 31: -- --
JMACHELOR: -- --
nexiar: -- --
karibasa: -- --
Pre-flop:
nexiar folds. karibasa raises to $4. chuckie2000
folds. pooClown re-raises to $6. Scott31 folds.
SteveGriff folds. insunkim folds. The_Sorcerer
calls. Taff 31 folds. JMACHELOR folds. karibasa
calls.
Flop (board: Qd 8h 5h):
karibasa checks. pooClown checks. The_Sorcerer bets
$2. karibasa folds. pooClown calls.
Turn (board: Qd 8h 5h Tc):
pooClown checks. The_Sorcerer bets $4. pooClown
calls.
River (board: Qd 8h 5h Tc Ks):
pooClown checks. The_Sorcerer checks.
Showdown:
pooClown shows Ad Jd.
pooClown has Ad Jd Qd Tc Ks: straight, ace high.
The_Sorcerer shows Ac Kh.
The_Sorcerer has Ac Kh Qd Tc Ks: a pair of kings.
Hand #4892768-2392 Summary:
$1.50 is raked from a pot of $33.
pooClown wins $31.50 with straight, ace high.
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Full Version: 2/4 limit hand
hmmm..... interesting.
Well, if PooClown is a reasonable opponent, then we could assume that he would 3 bet preflop with a very select range of starting hands. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, maybe AQS?) Even though clown's post flop betting doesn't indicate an over pair, Sorcerer may have thought that he was behind a fair amount of the time here and didn't feel like getting raised on the river. (good intuition or weak?)
I probably would've put him on JJ or another AK. I'm guessing I would've lost 2 more big bets.
I'm interested to hear what people think is the correct play here.
Well, if PooClown is a reasonable opponent, then we could assume that he would 3 bet preflop with a very select range of starting hands. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, maybe AQS?) Even though clown's post flop betting doesn't indicate an over pair, Sorcerer may have thought that he was behind a fair amount of the time here and didn't feel like getting raised on the river. (good intuition or weak?)
I probably would've put him on JJ or another AK. I'm guessing I would've lost 2 more big bets.
I'm interested to hear what people think is the correct play here.
I think we'd need a good read on pooClown to be able to say much about this one. I'd be pretty hesitant to bet on the river too, though -- depending on how the Clown plays, a 3-bet pre-flop might indicate QQ, KK, TT, or AJ. The check-calls on the flop and turn could easily be a slowplay. Unless pooClown is a loose re-raiser pre-flop, I'd think the only hands you can beat on this river would be JJ, AQ, or AT, and AT is pretty unlikely. Unless pooClown is really passive post flop, he's probably not check-calling with JJ or AT, and AQ isn't really strong enough to slowplay.
On the other hand, pooClown did 3-bet pre-flop with AJs, check-called with a single overcard on the flop against a guy who cold-called three bets pre-flop, and check-called again on the turn with only the added strength of an inside straight draw. Whether or not Sorcerer had a good enough read to justify the check on the river for this hand, you both now should know that pooClown is willing to chase pretty far with a hand that looks much worse post-flop than it did pre. On the flop, he certainly had the pot odds to draw for the ace, but realistically should have known that he was probably beat. Gutshot-gutshot to make the straight isn't exactly something you plan for. Even on the turn, that call is pretty crazy -- 7.25 to 1 pot odds on a single overcard that probably isn't good and an inside straight draw? He had the pot odds to draw for one of those seven outs, but when three of them are probably dirty...
Honestly, I think this hand is pretty marginal for both players involved, I would say. But then, greater minds than mine might disagree.
On the other hand, pooClown did 3-bet pre-flop with AJs, check-called with a single overcard on the flop against a guy who cold-called three bets pre-flop, and check-called again on the turn with only the added strength of an inside straight draw. Whether or not Sorcerer had a good enough read to justify the check on the river for this hand, you both now should know that pooClown is willing to chase pretty far with a hand that looks much worse post-flop than it did pre. On the flop, he certainly had the pot odds to draw for the ace, but realistically should have known that he was probably beat. Gutshot-gutshot to make the straight isn't exactly something you plan for. Even on the turn, that call is pretty crazy -- 7.25 to 1 pot odds on a single overcard that probably isn't good and an inside straight draw? He had the pot odds to draw for one of those seven outs, but when three of them are probably dirty...
Honestly, I think this hand is pretty marginal for both players involved, I would say. But then, greater minds than mine might disagree.
My thoughts are that although it ended up being correct, sorcerer's river check was pretty stupid. This is pretty clearly a value bet situation. He felt the need to bet (and semibluff) on the flop AND turn with absolutely no pair and no real draw, yet when he gets TPTK on the river, he thinks a check is a good idea. What card was he waiting for....a siamese twin ace that would give him trips on the river?
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him." Like what? AJ.....and AJ. no flush on the board, a crazy gutshot straight and a set is the only thing that has him beat. And only a jackass would 3 bet AJ and then keep calling with no real draws or possibilites...oh wait. Well, you can't be scared of the silly two pair draws and the longshot AJ here. Bad, bad, bad river check.
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him." Like what? AJ.....and AJ. no flush on the board, a crazy gutshot straight and a set is the only thing that has him beat. And only a jackass would 3 bet AJ and then keep calling with no real draws or possibilites...oh wait. Well, you can't be scared of the silly two pair draws and the longshot AJ here. Bad, bad, bad river check.
QUOTE (Scott31)
My thoughts are that although it ended up being correct, sorcerer's river check was pretty stupid. This is pretty clearly a value bet situation. He felt the need to bet (and semibluff) on the flop AND turn with absolutely no pair and no real draw, yet when he gets TPTK on the river, he thinks a check is a good idea. What card was he waiting for....a siamese twin ace that would give him trips on the river?
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him." Like what? AJ.....and AJ. no flush on the board, a crazy gutshot straight and a set is the only thing that has him beat. And only a jackass would 3 bet AJ and then keep calling with no real draws or possibilites...oh wait. Well, you can't be scared of the silly two pair draws and the longshot AJ here. Bad, bad, bad river check.
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him." Like what? AJ.....and AJ. no flush on the board, a crazy gutshot straight and a set is the only thing that has him beat. And only a jackass would 3 bet AJ and then keep calling with no real draws or possibilites...oh wait. Well, you can't be scared of the silly two pair draws and the longshot AJ here. Bad, bad, bad river check.
Your question about what card he was waiting for on the river is one I wanted to ask as well. It sure looks like he's looking for an ace or a king. Of course, really, he's just bluffing with overcards at that point, so obviously he wants pooClown to fold.
But let's look at what a bet on the river accomplishes.
If pooClown had AQ or some other queen, he might fold (no effect, since Sorceror is winning either way) or call (giving a little more money to Sorceror). If he's been slowplaying a set, here comes the check-raise, costing Sorceror even more money. If he's a nutjob and caught a straight, again with the check-raise, costing Sorc more. If he's on a busted flush draw, (maybe A
Q ), he MIGHT call with his second pair top kicker, but he might fold, fearing a set or overpair or two pair.
Basically, if Sorceror bets, he wants one of two things: a fold from a better hand, or a call (or raise, assuming he would then call) from a worse hand. I honestly can't think of a single better hand that pooClown could be holding and would be willing to fold at this point, and I can think of very few worse hands where he would be willing to call the river bet. Unless I'm wrong on one of those two assessments, that river bet would be more likely to cost Sorc more money (or gain him nothing he isn't getting already) than it is to make him more money. That's what you need to be thinking about when you bet the river in position. (Not that I'm any good at this in an actual game. :-) )
EDIT: Also note that a lot of other busted flush draws are probably going to fold to a bet here as well. The K
is in Sorc's hand, so the best busted flush draws might also have 2nd or 3rd pair, or maybe two pair (queens and tens), but who three-bets QTs pre-flop? The vast majority of busted flush draws are folding to a bet on the river, and honestly, that would be my best read on pooClown at the river. Another thought -- if pooClown also held AK, he might fold, fearing a set -- but again, this seems unlikely. I also like the check because it means if pooClown DOES have the worse hand at this point, instead of letting him fold it to your bet, you get to win the same amount of money AND find out what he was chasing with. Information is always nice to get.
Like I said, this is a pretty clear value bet situation IMO. There just really isn't much out there that's scary. If you're fearing a river slowplayed set of queens, then you're maybe a bit tight at times. You can't fear the worst. He really seems like he has JJ or 99 or a crappily played AQ or AK also. This is a bet a lot of people miss and they would be better off to put it out.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
QUOTE (Scott31)
Like I said, this is a pretty clear value bet situation IMO. There just really isn't much out there that's scary. If you're fearing a river slowplayed set of queens, then you're maybe a bit tight at times. You can't fear the worst. He really seems like he has JJ or 99 or a crappily played AQ or AK also. This is a bet a lot of people miss and they would be better off to put it out.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
You make a good point. I think a lot of this comes down to a prior read on pooClown -- based on the read I would have after this hand, I would certainly be happy to bet the river against him in this situation. If your prior read on him had been "tight", though, I'd be a lot more worried about that slowplayed set of queens, KK, or AA.
I do think the check-raise is a reasonable possible plan here, though. After that kind of aggression from a guy who cold-called three bets before the flop, I know I would expect him to bet again on the river (and you're saying that you would -- I think I would too, as much as I may have argued for the value of checking) so I wouldn't discard the possibility of the check-raise play so quickly.
The trickiest thing about this play is the randomness of a crazy player like pooClown. If he was tight, I would agree that the only hand I would expect to beat me here would be the QQ -- but as we have now seen, he's stupid enough to have a straight. This is the constant danger of low limit games -- the crazies abound, and sometimes they catch a miracle on the river. The general rule for dealing with this, though, is to get your money into the pot when it looks like you have the best hand, and let the averages in the long run sort it out when you lose. That's most of why my knee-jerk reaction on the river would be to bet this one -- but I'd be less inclined to do so against a rock who likes to slowplay.
why would you have an argument about this with the player that didn't value bet here? Don't you want him to check it down when he hits his top pair on the river against your 2nd pair? Your saving yourself money by keeping your mouth shut. Obviously he should have bet here. I'm not sure why ppl get so scared of being check raised. If you have a good enough hand to bet out with, usually you wouldn't mind calling 1 extra bet with it. Top pair top kicker is a good enough hand to call 2 bets with. I'd probably even raise if I was bet into here against a loose opponent who would bet the king with a weaker kicker after he hits. You can't be afraid of longshot draws hitting. Your only losing 1 extra bet and sometimes you still win the pot after getting check raised.
QUOTE (Scott31 @ Wednesday, March 16th, 2005, 1:46 PM) 
My thoughts are that although it ended up being correct, sorcerer's river check was pretty stupid. This is pretty clearly a value bet situation. He felt the need to bet (and semibluff) on the flop AND turn with absolutely no pair and no real draw, yet when he gets TPTK on the river, he thinks a check is a good idea. What card was he waiting for....a siamese twin ace that would give him trips on the river?
No, actually I had a fairly good read on Poo.
On the flop, I knew he either had Ax that missed or a small pair.
If he had a small pair, he had me on A-Good that missed.
Turn came, and I had him on the same hands.
River hit. Now all ace-goods beat small pairs, so he fold them, AK ties me, and AJ beats me.
If I'm ahead, I win nothing by betting, if I'm tied, I pay a little more rake, and if I'm behind, he knows he's got the nuts and check raises.
Anyone who bets the river here isn't paying attention to the game.
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him."
I seldom actually tell the truth about why I'm playing my hand a certain way in the chatbox.
If your across the table from me, telling you my decision process isn't the best way to get your chips.
Here, it's simple.
The fish couldn't muck AJ.
He would have check called with a small pair. He would have bet any pair on the flop or the turn. And he'd have been unable to convince himself he beat anything with, say, 33, when the river hit.
The check was mandatory, and it was correct
No, actually I had a fairly good read on Poo.
On the flop, I knew he either had Ax that missed or a small pair.
If he had a small pair, he had me on A-Good that missed.
Turn came, and I had him on the same hands.
River hit. Now all ace-goods beat small pairs, so he fold them, AK ties me, and AJ beats me.
If I'm ahead, I win nothing by betting, if I'm tied, I pay a little more rake, and if I'm behind, he knows he's got the nuts and check raises.
Anyone who bets the river here isn't paying attention to the game.
Poo had shown zero strength after the flop here and if he nailed something hard, it's more likely that he'd wait for the turn rather than the river to raise. Poo's river check was pretty silly too, I think. Although sorcerer's was very poor too. I asked him why he checked there and he said that, "there were too may possibilities that beat him."
I seldom actually tell the truth about why I'm playing my hand a certain way in the chatbox.
If your across the table from me, telling you my decision process isn't the best way to get your chips.
Here, it's simple.
The fish couldn't muck AJ.
He would have check called with a small pair. He would have bet any pair on the flop or the turn. And he'd have been unable to convince himself he beat anything with, say, 33, when the river hit.
The check was mandatory, and it was correct
[quote name='Scott31' date='Wednesday, March 16th, 2005, 6:00 PM' post='74185']
Like I said, this is a pretty clear value bet situation IMO. There just really isn't much out there that's scary. If you're fearing a river slowplayed set of queens, then you're maybe a bit tight at times. You can't fear the worst. He really seems like he has JJ or 99 or a crappily played AQ or AK also. This is a bet a lot of people miss and they would be better off to put it out.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
Scott, you posted this 4 years ago.
I'm guessing you might have a better opinion by now.
People go for check raises on the river all the time.
If he bet out, I'd have had to call. But if he bet out, he would more probably have had KJ.
Like I said, this is a pretty clear value bet situation IMO. There just really isn't much out there that's scary. If you're fearing a river slowplayed set of queens, then you're maybe a bit tight at times. You can't fear the worst. He really seems like he has JJ or 99 or a crappily played AQ or AK also. This is a bet a lot of people miss and they would be better off to put it out.
I don't see him folding AQ just because a river K hit the board and if JJ was willing to call the flop and turn, there's no way in hell he'd fold the river. This is an extra bb in Sorcerer's pocket a high majority of the time if he makes the value bet. A lot of people 3 bet 77, 88, 99, JJ, AQ and sometimes even lower pps. Or sometimes people just do it because they're stupid. If you're looking for logic from poo, I doubt you're gonna find it. And thinking because there are 2 face cards on the board and a possible goofy gutshot that you should safely check is insane. He pretty much thought it was a brilliant check, but it's a leak in his game if he's not willing to hit the bet button there. That's a bb that I will make and he will miss out on. Honestly, this is a pretty safe board here. The only and I mean only hand I would think could be me at the river is QQ and I'm not getting any information that he has even one Q, so bet the King and if you get c/r, well, that's life. Plus, only an idiot would do all of that calling, finally make his hand, and decide to get greedy and try for the sneaky check/raise.
Scott, you posted this 4 years ago.
I'm guessing you might have a better opinion by now.
People go for check raises on the river all the time.
If he bet out, I'd have had to call. But if he bet out, he would more probably have had KJ.
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