$10/$20 omaha hi/lo, nine-handed

i'm BB with K Q 4 3 .
six limpers and one fold, SB completes, i check.

(8 SB) J 10 3
six checks (including mine), CO bets, everyone calls.

(8 BB) 6
six checks (including mine), CO bets, Button raises, everyone calls.

i'm planning on open-folding any non-9/non-ace river, and to lead out if an A comes but to checkraise if a 9 comes.

thoughts?

aseem

I think that's a bad call on the turn there.

You've got KQxx, the board was JT36, 8 players in the pot (Men that's frigging unbelievable!).

Your outs, 4 Aces and 4 9s. Since there are 8 players, you can assume at least two Aces were gone.

There were 11 BBs before you and you need to pay 2 BBs to win very likely only half of the pot. To me this is a very -EV call and I know you know better than that. But what can I say, 7 players stayed to the river....

that's faulty logic. if you assume you can "see" two aces in my opponents' hands, then you have to discount two cards from the unseen number of cards. really, that's wrong logic.

four 9's give me the nuts and the whole pot.

four A's give me the nuts for high but leave a low possible, so i get half the pot.

so, that's effectively 6 partial outs.

but sometimes, i can make the nuts for high and still split the pot, and that's my main concern.

aseem

Not really. You can assume that hands calling pre-flop will be richer in aces than any four random cards. He's assuming that with 7 other players, those 28 cards are two aces richer on average than cards chosen randomly. The actual number may or may not be right, but it's sound logically.

[edit: on the other hand, the rest of the deck should be richer in 9's, so you effectively have more than 4 outs for the scoop. The aces correlation should be stronger than the 9's, however, but since the A is a split and the 9's are a scoop, they probably cancel out or come close.]

All in all, I think the turn call was terrible.

On the river, my play will be different than yours, i.e., CR with the Ace, then bet out the 9.

I think there will be more actions when the Ace falls on the river, and no matter what, since the pot after the turn was 36 BBs, you won't bet out the ones who had 23. You can, however, build a bigger pot hoping you are the only one who got the nut high, and players with 23, 24, AJ, set... would call.

If an 9 falls, players would more likely to check behind you. I do hope someone would raise me from behind for inferior str8s...

I am very surprised you called on the turn there...you sure this wasn't made up (for a forum topic) or modified slightly? :?

I would focus and zoom in more ...... I mean the avatar.

alright, so maybe it wasn't the best call.

maybe it was a little bit of tilt. i'm getting cold-carded like a mother, and it doesn't help that i'm playing way higher than i ever normally play. one missed nut flush + nut low draw costs me $200 in this game!!

not meaning to complain, but just how many times can you get counterfeited when you have backup too?! how many times can the board pair when you turn the nut flush and cap it against a maniac?!

anyway, my reasoning was just that if everyone cold-called behind me, or even two people cold-called behind me, i'd have the odds to cold-call myself, so i might as well just assume at least two people are coming for the ride.

aseem

Yep, that's what I think what you were thinking too, after all, this was a very very loose table with 8 players seeing the flop, looser than some $2/$4 tables that I've played with. You've enough reasons of cold-calling based on the players at the table.

but just how many times can you get counterfeited when you have backup too?! how many times can the board pair when you turn the nut flush and cap it against a maniac

That's why I love Pot limit.

i'm still testing her out...cant seem to get it in focus and meet the maximum size requirements of 100 x 120 pixels...



huge pot whenyou hit there, but man it can get expensive to play those assumptions that you will get the odds if...

One more thing, if the table is this loose, you go back to the ABC of playing O8, wait for the made hands before you'are committed, don't build the pot just because you've got good drawing hands. Been there, some days it just might not be your day, your mission on that day is to minimize the impact. Realizing that makes you a stronger player.

I play reasonably well at PLO8 $200/$400. But when I play at PP's $50 or $100 PLO8 SnG, at the beginning I just got run over by bad players' 779Q, 35TK... There are players who don't know sh!t about PLO8 but they do have money to gamble at $50, $100 SnGs. I figured I couldn't make moves that I did in my cash games, I ended up waiting more patiently for a kill in SnG (althought they start with only $1000 chips and blinds increase every 9 hands) and it worked out for me.

Good luck.