So I have this problem. . .

I have been playing the MTTs on Full Tilt and generally I do pretty well. I play pretty tight through the first levels and watch Pokertracker to see who will give away their chips. generally I make my way to the top 100 with relative ease but my problem comes in the later stages right before and after the bubble. three times I have noticed that I go from 4-6th in chips at the bubble to not even making a final table. I try to pick on small stacks and it seems like i just keep loosing coinflips (I am usually the aggressor) to them which leaves me with anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of my stack. I try to grind it back up and it seems like I loose another flip until eventually I bust out in the 12-18 range. I see a pattern emerging and I do not like it as playing for 5 hours to double my buy in is a little annoying. Anyone have any advise for me or am I just running into some bad luck?

thanks in advance!

You need to describe what happens better. All you said mostly was that you just lose flips. The only thing I (or anyone) can tell you is to just run better.

or dont take every possible coinflip spot, like 33 versus short villain i guess i mean way to vague for use to say anything else here

^

The losing of a coin-flip is natural. Losing it twice in succession is bad luck. Over the long term, losing it over 50% of the time is bad luck.

Hope this helps!!

Sorry it was so vague I was just leaving the house

here is the basic situation I cant seem to break


Me: ~20k
Average 9k
BB or Sb ~7-8k

Blinds 400/800 or 500/1000

In late position Ill pick up a hand like 88+ or JQ+ sometime KT and sometimes A/8+

in an unlimped/unraised pot Ill throw out a raise big enough to make the small stack in one of the blinds call for all their chips. .

about 60% they fold but a lot of the times I get called by any two broadway cards.

and we go to a flop 80% of the time I win if no one pairs. . . but i am winning a small percentage of these and its putting a decent hit in my stack

does anyone think this is a leak of a strategy? I would like to imagine that it is profitable;e over time and I have just hit a cold streak here or maybe there is a better strategy

Yes it is...just nit it up in those type of situations, raise with pairs and quality hands

+1

Also you say you are usually in 4th-6th place with 20-25xbb? A chip average of 10 or 9xbb...? Play a tourney with a better strucute, imo.

Oh, and this provided information fits totally with my signature.

This is the most generalized attempt at turning a bad beat saga into a mathematical question, like ever.

Maybe a hyper turbo takedown with 500t or he typed it in wrong? None of the normal tourneys has such structure that you're chip leader with -30xBB?

Be caution about picking on short stacks, esp. after the bubble and/or when their shortstack represents almost half of your stack. I usually go after medium stacks/rock-like short stacks and people who play fit or fold on flops during the bubble period.

A lot of medium stacks during the bubble will tighten up to make the money, while some short stack players will shove a raise to either steal, or give themselves a better shot at making the money, esp if they view you as a bully with a wide hand range. Of course, very situational.

General advice given your results. Tighten up a bit/ run good.

poker tracker tells you who is going to spew their chips?