Frez
Thursday, October 1st, 2009, 5:10 PM
QUOTE (RISEorFall @ Thursday, October 1st, 2009, 2:40 PM)

why is the A bad? Ah is great because it gives me the nut flush. a 9 would worry me more because i could still be up against the nut straight, whereas if an A comes im often tying but villain cant have a better straight. i cant bet for value with either, really, but if a 9 comes i dont like calling a bet because usually at best im hoping to split.
Ya, sorry, missed the Ah thing. But let's count up the outs. 4 Aces, one is solid, the others are at least potentially splits. So say 2.5 outs, 3 at most.
8 other flush cards, but we could be beat by a bigger flush. Count that as 4 or 5 outs maybe?
A 9 may have some bad RIO, or maybe a split, so I'd only count the 3 non heart 9s as 1 out.
Of course the turn puts out a diamond flush, so now the 9d and Ad are ugly, so discount 1 out there.
So what does that give us, effectively 7 or 8 outs? With one card to come, you need 4.8-1 or better to call a turn bet. Of course calling a pot turn bet is 2-1.
The math is essentially the same from the flop to the turn, and that's the problem with calling a flop bet. There is one card we love, several cards that are OK (but may result in a split), and the rest of the cards we think may be okay, could actually be really bad. So most of the time we make our hand we're still uncomfortable. And you are getting freerolled some amoutn of the time.
And that's why it's very marginal preflop, because we're gonna find ourselves in these shitty situations so often.