RISEorFall
Monday, May 25th, 2009, 6:31 PM
QUOTE (MinhLyFan @ Friday, May 22nd, 2009, 7:55 PM)

I have to say that this really isn't a spot to rfsd. Villian either has a2 a5 56, some random 4, a jack, or air. You vtown yourself against a jack, especially when the dude is passive (very common at these limits) and doesn't vb a lot of rivers. You get 3b by a four. 56 is 3-barreling almost any river so you don't need to be concerned with getting two bets from a draw on the turn. You bluff out air losing yourself a bet on the river if he decides to fire down, and on this texture with an agg opponent, this is worth a lot. Against the ace high gut shots, your equity edge is so small that it doesn't compensate for the value you lose against the rest of his range when you raise.
i dont valuetown myself against a J if i dont bet the river. I'm also decently behind pocket pairs who probably wont fold with only one over. but in these cases i lose the same if the river doesn't get bet (and often, it wont) and i make an extra bet when i hit (and with 2 3s, 3 Ks, 9 Ds, often i will)
i have a big equity advantage over Ax gutshots and other straight draws on the turn (77% vs A5 and 56, 81% vs A2, 84% vs 67), so making them pay extra to draw is pretty big.
the only downside is, if like you said, he's barrelling with air, and will barrel the river. but he has 4 outs if it's just air, and 7 if he has an A (when the J pairs). if he folds any of that (which he wont always, esp. if he has an A) then it kinda sucks, but not enough to outweigh all the benefits i get from his other, more likely hands.
i hate when guys post and then argue with everyone who tries to help them, but after looking at the hand again i think raising the turn for a free showdown UI is 100% the right play. On this dry board my turn raise looks much bigger than it might on a medium-high connected board, and it's harder for him to have a big hand he'd want to put in a turn 3bet or river bet. anything less than AJ is doing exactly what i want.