Zach6668
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 6:51 PM
QUOTE (HighwayStar @ Wednesday, May 20th, 2009, 7:07 PM)

I call that river after calling the turn.
You don't have to, I mean, we're drawing, so we don't always need to showdown. We have 4 outs to the straight, and whatever number of outs we want to give ourselves for over cards. Getting 6.5 to 1 means we need to hit the river only 13% of the time (sorta, ignoring reverse implied odds a little), so we'd need about 6 outs or so, which means we think our over cards are outs 1/3rd of the time, to breakeven.
I would say we win/lose maybe the same when we hit an overcard, so the implied, and reverse implied are close-ish.
We gain an extra bet, sometimes 2 when we hit the straight, if he overplays 7x, sometimes we lose 2 when he has a boat.
So we can sorta draw profitably here and fold the river.
Now, the question as to whether or not our A-high is good on the river is an interesting one. When the villain bets this river, he's sorta polarized. He's got a made hand (7 or a T), sometimes a good J, sometimes a straight (although lots of those would check behind that river, even though we basically never have a boat here, ourselves). In theory, he'd also be betting his air, but unless he had complete air on the flop, he doesn't have complete air now, as you pointed out, any semibluff got there somehow.
Meh on the river, but turn call is ok, even if we are c/f'ing the river.