Cappy37
Thursday, October 30th, 2008, 5:02 PM
You are blocking spades, which is good.. But your real draws (nutflush/low) are both backdoor, you have no hand, and someone wants to play a big pot. You don't have the hand to play a real pot, and you currently beat nothing.
Raising this flop only folds out bluffs, anyone with 2 pair or a set is going to gamble with you. I wouldn't be shocked to see KJxx with the Kx of spades. Someone with KQJT has you positively crushed, and you can't even be certain you wouldnt be up against a hand like that PLUS someone with a higher flush draw. This is the perfect scenario for seeing a cheap turn card, but the betting has made that an impossibility.
Short and simple: you have no ability to win the hand now, and not much of a shot to win the hand later too.. Even if you hit a spade, you can't value bet it with confidence, which screws your implied odds in this pot. There's only 3 cards in the deck that solve your problems on the turn or river, and you won't see 'em cheaply. Even in hold 'em.. Holding AK on a QT7 board isn't a scenario where you want to get invested greatly postflop.. This really ain't much different than that. Your implied odds are horrible, and considering your stack size a push from you lacks fold equity to make it a profitable move.
These type of hands play out a lot like chicken. You had the "disadvantage" of acting last, and now are pretty much stuck folding here. Raising can't be a long-term profitable move. Calling definitely is a long-term loser. And folding sucks, but is the only real way to play this.
I'm not even sold potting this preflop is that great in the long run, since the real strength in our hand is our low potential, with only a 6 for counterfeit protection. Yeah, we're double suited.. but I generally play 6high flushes as "flush blockers" more than additional outs, unless i get the pot heads up going into the flop. Yeah, it sounds nitty, but I'm much more likely to play A23x, A24x, and even A34x more aggressively than A2xx. Those rare occasions where people (god bless them) still interpret your PF raise as AAxx allows you some leeway in playing A2xx agressively, but you still need to hit some flops, and it's so damn hard to make A2xx work both ways without a backup plan. You'll laugh at the two others going nuts betting their A2's while you get all of the high side a lot more than you'll flop/turn the joint with A2xx
I'm sure your initial desire in posting this hand was to evaluate the action vs. your double-backdoor/potential babyflush possibilities, but that's far and away more of a LO8 concept.. and even then it's generally a "single bet only and when you can close off the action" scenario.
Of course, you could have disguised the hand and made the villian the hero.. in which case i'll agree and say i dunno what he was thinking when he called the flop.

As an added bonus: you may not be the only one peeling off a card with A2, and the other player with it may have a better counterfeit card and is more likely to have hit the other half of his hand somewhat. You'll need exactly a 3,4,5,6,8 on the turn that is preferrably not a spade to continue.. That plus the 3 miracle jacks gives you 18 cards out of 45 unseen to start some runner-runner action. And 83% of your "safe" turn cards enable you to spend too much money trying to see the river as well.