Assume no reads. I haven't played any plo in a couple months and don't have a hud running at the time I played the hand. Wtf do I do now??

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $95.40
Hero: $225.10
CO: $179.50
Button: $100
SB: $107.95
BB: $200

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 6 4 A Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.5, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: A K 6 ($14, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $10, Button raises to $33, SB folds, BB raises to $56, Hero???

Well , you push.

I don't see any other way of playing this flop.

We could fold. BB came with the check-four-bet, or whatever you call it when they check, the raise behind a bet and raise.

Anyways, our A6 isn't good, that's clear. If we shove 200 bbs we're getting called by BB, that's also clear. Button is probably coming along too, but he only has 100 bbs, so we can't get 2-1 on our money. I think we'd have to be tremendously lucky to win this pot without a flush. I mean maybe there's no AA out, but then there's bound to be at least an AK and/or KK. It's somewhat possible that either an ace or a six could give us the pot, but even without an AA out, a KK or 66 and an AK would make our A6 dead.

I bolded my main point though. Like, if they have AA and KK we love to get it in there with a flush draw, except that we can't possibly get correct odds because of the stack sizes.

In that case why don't we flat call and force button to call or probably push? He is not folding for $24 for in a $159 pot. And if he calls flop , he is calling any turn as well cus of the great odds he gets. That way we will be getting good odds as well.

what do you think the other two players have here, and what are our odds against those ranges?

(fwiw, i think that this is a pretty clear fold)

unless he is going to lose the house if you hit the flush this is a fold.

if you both started the hand with 100bbs i would say go for it becouse there is enough dead money in the pot (i would guess you have on average 35% equity here edit: HU against the BB, three ways I have no idea, but i dont think the buttons whole stack gives you enough overlay when you are probably behind to him also). however, with stacks that deep, well like i said, fold.

also, I wouldn't shame you for checking that flop.

Why would I check this flop?

its deep enough where you can't take the bad side of a 60/40, people are not often calling with worse hands, and you have a draw you would like to draw to.

and if you bet and the button calls you are going to be forced to fold most turns.

AK or 66 maybe? or AK vs KK? KK vs 66? It is really difficult to put people on a narrow range of hands in this limit.

I have over 100k hands at $100 plo since May and although it sounds very marginal for this hand , i have seen K6 with a flush draw or naked Q high flush draw several times at situations like this one.

I haven't calculated the odds. I am not very good with math.

I can't see myself folding this flop tho. I guess i am a bit spewy.

Here's the full hand for those of you who are results oriented

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3134163

i think you're up against kk a lot but we destroy a lot of weird hands and you have 2 pair and the nut flush draw! i ship it in and i feel sorta bad when i bink my a or spade

The thing is, even if we're lucky enough that one of our opponents has something like that, we still have to beat the other opponent to take the whole pot (and to show a profit on the hand, since we can't conceivably win the main pot and lose the side pot, and since the side pot would net us $0 if it's all we take).

And it's not like having the side-pot is giving us some kind of freeroll - far from it! Quick example: Big stack has just a draw, small stack has a made hand. Now we're well favored over a monster draw, and behind KK or AK but doing ok. Obviously we're trying to hit our flush to scoop, but we already know that a spade will scoop us this pot no matter what (when board doesn't pair), so in that sense it doesn't matter what our opponents could or do have if we're just going to see our flush draw and to hell with everything else. Also though, in this scenario where we are lucky enough to be a BIG favorite over the large stack (giving him QJTx with spades maybe), he's likely to have 2 or more of our scoop outs. If we reverse it and the small stack has a draw and big stack has a made hand, we're in much worse shape. I think the chances that both opponents are on a draw is very very small.



Haven't read the results yet, damn you for trying to bias us bdc!!!

That's why I put it in pokerhand.org format - read em when you want

Also, something I considered at the time:

Since bb's check/3bet was only a minraise of the button's initial raise -- does that mean we might have some fold equity by shoving? If I were sitting in his spot with 66 or some combo spade/straight draw, I'd have a VERY tough time calling it off, since everything I've done to this point (assuming I shove) makes my hand look a lot like aces, and any spade draw he has obv can't be the nuts.

Put yourself in bb's shoes for a moment -- what's the least you're calling it off with here when I ship it in?

unless i've seen you overplay hands even in multiway situations, a set. and i wouldn't like calling with bottom set. i would also call you with a wrap/flush which you have destroyed.

that actually might give something to shoving....

here's my thinking on this hand (winging the math as i go, i could be wrong on my initial assessment above, which was a gut reaction):


against a set of kings and a combo draw, we have almost exactly 33.5% equity

against a set of kings and a wrap draw, we have about 38.5% equity

if we're up against two combo draws, we have almost exactly 75% equity.

other hands, including equity calculations and likelihood of dead spades in all included hands basically even out, imo.


assuming it gets in 3 ways, we are getting functionally 1.5:1 on our money (slightly better than this, but we'll have to see if that is going to matter).


thus, it obviously depends on the weighted likelihood of each of these hands for the villains.

tbh, i say we're up against two combo draws less than 10% of the time here, and that the first two possibilities are equally likely.

(.335)(.45) + (.385)(.45) + (.75)(.1) = .399

getting 1.5 to one on our money means that this is a total wash and that no one is right or wrong, looool.


if this gets HU, we are in serious trouble, imo, but i really don't think that that happens at these limits, like ever.

Checky you did a good breakdown...but you forgot the possibility that they both have made hands! If we're up against 2 sets or AK and a set we would be doing fine to get it in 3 ways, except of course that we're not able to get it in 3 ways in the way we desire. As you said, we can only get 3:2 on our money, and we certainly can't figure out a way to get 3:2 on a flush draw =\.


Edit: Ok you sort of mentioned it, but I think the likelihood of this is much higher than just a tiny possibility.

it's not that it's a super tiny possibility (but it is "tiny," imo, lol), since the made hand combos are: AK, KK, AA, 66 that would do any of that (if someone's a total donk, obv the whole analysis goes out the window and i hellmuth shove), and all of those involve someone holding "two perfect cards" in order for everyone to have some sort of made hand.

now, if everyone has a made hands, our odds actually improve in most cases because of our opponents' dead redraw outs (fwiw, i think our A6 component is rarely if ever good if the money goes in 3 ways--i'm speaking about our flush equity and maybe giving ourselves one out for the ace), and the lower likelihood of them holding spades that kill us. HOWEVER, considering that wrap draws and any other hands are likely to include spades that lower our own equity, i was making the argument that all of that probably comes close to being a wash in the end.

fwiw, the dead cards component of the analysis is a fairly advanced omaha concept that i'm bringing over from my experience with o8. in four card games, the "amount of cards remaining in the deck" and "outs" should be skewed fairly distinctly in a lot of spots based on your reads.




this hand is a lot more interesting and complicated than i originally thought. nice post, brent.

Edit.


^^^^ May replace that with an actual post later.