Frez
Tuesday, January 8th, 2008, 9:54 AM
QUOTE (SpiderGuard @ Monday, January 7th, 2008, 12:00 PM)

A couple thoughts on folding 3rd:
- How many situations make you happy on 4th street though? The other two low cards have to catch a high card and you have to catch a low card to be happy. An ace makes you happy as well, so add that.
- You really aren't getting 8-1 because you're really only playing for half the pot here unless you catch an ace and then probably at least second pair at some point. Your real equity is only in half the pot, not the full pot.
Also, keep in mind that taking into consideration the upcards you've seen on 3rd, you're less than 50% to catch any low. So you have to catch that *and* have it be better than a low that the 7 and 5 caught. On 4th you're about 30%.
It still might not be the best play, but I don't think it's a leak because, as Cappy said, you're going to be in some super marginal situations on 5th street in your best case (reasonable) scenario. I'm leaning toward a ragged low like that against two seemingly better lows being a fold.
None of that matters because you're getting into a
4 way pot for only half a bet!!! You could be only 4-1 in a stud-hi game and this would be the same situation.
Now I'm not saying I would do this with any hand, but just something as small as having an Ace in the hole makes this marginal. Add in we are two-suited and have 3 low cards, and it's an automatic call.
I'm sticking with that unless checky says otherwise!
Of course this will lead to some marginal situations and tough decisions on 4th and 5th. Of course I was calling for 4th to be the 2

. Who ever said this was going to be easy?
Unfortunately I caught just enough to suck me along and ended up losing, but this isn't about results. Had I missed on 4th or 5th I would have easily folded, having only invested a little when I had the chance for half or maybe even all of a nice pot. The fact that it is 4-way is key - that puts enough money out there to peel 4th, then 5th with what will most likely be a one way hand.