9s 8s All-in Call, Donkey move? Options

[UncleHoot]

I play a lot of the 18-man 1.75 turbo's. Occasionally, I find myself in a situation similar to the following:

8 players left
Blinds 200/400.
My stack 1050.
Dealt 8s 9s on the button
Player 1 (stack 4K) raises to from EP to 800
Player 2 shoves his remaining 1200 and change
Player 3 calls (stack 8K)

Me? I call.

My logic is that I'm probably about 20% to win the hand, and if I win it, there's a very good chance of cashing. I'd have close to 5K in chips. Waiting around for a big hand before getting blinded out (and possibly still losing) seems even more risky, since I have almost no fold equity left. I probably do not even have pot-odds here, but winning this pot, as unlikely as it may seem, is about the only way to really get back into the game. Considering the hands already in the pot, calling with something like A6 suited would really be stupid, but suited connectors not as much.

Yes, I've done this, and sure, most of the time I bust. When I do win, I have a tendency to get deride excessively by the guy who lost with AK, AQ, or whatever. Heck, maybe someone even has a big pair, and I'm only around 16% to win it. Or maybe I'm just up against a few overcards and a small pocket pair, and I'm closer to 22% to win. So, I just figure around 20% on average.

Make sense?

EDIT: meant to save "overcards" instead of "overpairs"

EDIT2: Assuming I have 1050 left after the antes have gone in (25), that puts my pot at (most likely), 1050 x 3 + 200 (antes) + 600 blinds. So, I'm calling 1050 into a pot of 3950, giving me exactly 1 in 3.76 odds. That's slightly below the 1 in 4 that I should have. Adjusting my stack down to 800, I get exactly 1 in 4 odds on a call here.

Assuming I'm up against AA, KK, and QQ, I'm still 19%
If I'm up against AK, AQ, and KsQs, (or similar) I'm in pretty good shape (33% to win)
In other worst case scenarios (incl if I'm up against 88 and 99), I'm aound 15-17%.

[UncleHoot]

Ok, I guess what I'm really asking is something akin to "implied odds". Think beyond this hand. In this hand, I don't have odds to call. I might be kind of close (say 3.3 to 1, instead of 4 to 1). But when you factor in the chip position that this hand puts me in for the entire tournament, it doesn't seem as bad. Winning would give me a lot of fold equity against other 1.5-3K stacks.

[kreppsen]

I play a lot of the 18-man 1.75 turbo's. Occasionally, I find myself in a situation similar to the following:

8 players left
Blinds 200/400.
My stack 1050.
Dealt 8s 9s on the button
Player 1 (stack 4K) raises to from EP to 800
Player 2 shoves his remaining 1200 and change
Player 3 calls (stack 8K)

Positions would help, I don't like calling in these kinda hands cause even if we might win a few times I think we will have better opportunities to win a pot even though we are earlier to act.

[UncleHoot]

Positions would help, I don't like calling in these kinda hands cause even if we might win a few times I think we will have better opportunities to win a pot even though we are earlier to act.

I'm on the button with 3 players already in the pot ahead of me. SB and BB have yet to act.

[rrumsey]

depends on read of villain #1 will he overshove to isolate?i wanna take the odds here but,... are you in the money? no, ugh i fold here then

[kreppsen]

I'm on the button with 3 players already in the pot ahead of me. SB and BB have yet to act.

I fold 89s without hesitation, we can still get better hands and even though we might have a worse position I'll wait it out and beg for a better hand and antes not to kill me.

[Banner17]

I'd call here. Your getting 3.5 to 1 on your money here. You need to find a spot to get some chips quickly and as you said you have no fold equity considering you got a stack of 1050 at 200/400 blinds. Nobody will fold to your shove getting 2 to 1 on a call considering your desperation mode. Call and hope to get healthy.

The real problem is being at this stage in the tourney with this short a stack. Either you just came off a disaster pot, or your playing way too tight and not chopping away at pots to pick up chips along the way.

[UncleHoot]

I'd call here. Your getting 3.5 to 1 on your money here. You need to find a spot to get some chips quickly and as you said you have no fold equity considering you got a stack of 1050 at 200/400 blinds. Nobody will fold to your shove getting 2 to 1 on a call considering your desperation mode. Call and hope to get healthy.

The real problem is being at this stage in the tourney with this short a stack. Either you just came off a disaster pot, or your playing way too tight and not chopping away at pots to pick up chips along the way.

It's a 1.75 turbo. Maybe my AQ shove just lost to AK (or vice versa). There are certainly a number of ways to get a stack that size. I suppose it's also possible that I haven't really had a hand/opportunity yet, blinds just went up, and I've been folding a lot. It can happen. I don't like to go crazy early in these.

I had forgotten to take antes into account, which I think would be an extra 200 chips, giving me slightly better pot odds.

[kreppsen]

The real problem is being at this stage in the tourney with this short a stack. Either you just came off a disaster pot, or your playing way too tight and not chopping away at pots to pick up chips along the way.

Yeah, you want to win more pots at earlier stages to avoid situations like this. But I don't call this with two people still to act and one that most likely is gonna call

[rrumsey]

Yeah, you want to win more pots at earlier stages to avoid situations like this. But I don't call this with two people still to act and one that most likely is gonna call

i mean by the book i think we have odds but we have no way of knowing what is live, i mean or flush outs could be an illusion and we could only be trying to spike 2 pair or st8 or st8 flush so that is why i fold, but again by the book we have odds so idk

[MaxStPolish]

You are on the button. You have 6 chances when you fold this hand to pick up something better to get it in with.
I fold.

If you were UTG or UTG+1 I might shove and hope for callers based on the above theory. But on the button, let's get some paint at least to go to battle with.

[kreppsen]

You are on the button. You have 6 chances when you fold this hand to pick up something better to get it in with.
I fold.

If you were UTG or UTG+1 I might shove and hope for callers based on the above theory. But on the button, let's get some paint at least to go to battle with.

Agreed

[Biff Goods]

I know everyone is saying fold but I call this.....and hope SB and BB come along. At this point in a tourny you need to get lucky to stay in and what better time to do it with a 6-7k pot for you. Regardless of how you got to this point chip stack wise you can't win a turbo but sitting and waiting.....It's probably not the correct answer but I do it and either win and give myself a second life...or lose and load up another....

[rbakken2504]

Well technically speaking you shouldve been shoving/calling ATC's about 2.5 BB's ago...so in this situation i dont think you can really look at it from an EV/implied odds standpoint...because you shouldnt be in this position with such a small stack all that often, by all that often...i mean close to never.

[cdipierr]

Fold because even w/o fold equity, you'll still be able to find a 40/60 spot at worse. And the goal of a SNG first and foremost is to cash. Once you've cashed, then play more aggressively to move up the scale.

[wildspoke]

I know everyone is saying fold but[b] I call this.....[b]and hope SB and BB come along[/b]. At this point in a tourny you need to get lucky to stay in and what better time to do it with a 6-7k pot for you.[/b] Regardless of how you got to this point chip stack wise you can't win a turbo but sitting and waiting.....It's probably not the correct answer but I do it and either win and give myself a second life...or lose and load up another....

We have the CL opening - then an all-in shove - and you want the SB and BB to come along for the ride?

It might be a 6k pot but the OP has nine high. 9 HIGH. How is this not a fold?

How about instead of relying on 'luck' the OP makes a more pointed attack.

Granted the OP is in bad shape but by no means on life support. At this point the objective is to cash. 'Top 4' right?

A call here is waaaaay risky.

If this was a tournament where only first place is rewarded, that would be a more compelling reason to call but you've got to fold.

[UncleHoot]

We have the CL opening - then an all-in shove - and you want the SB and BB to come along for the ride?

It might be a 6k pot but the OP has nine high. 9 HIGH. How is this not a fold?

How about instead of relying on 'luck' the OP makes a more pointed attack.

Granted the OP is in bad shape but by no means on life support. At this point the objective is to cash. 'Top 4' right?

A call here is waaaaay risky.

If this was a tournament where only first place is rewarded, that would be a more compelling reason to call but you've got to fold.

I'm still not claiming a call is absolutely the right play, but things to consider:
Calling with 9 high in this position is probably a much better move than calling with Ace rag, K rag, or Q rag or even something like QT. It's likely that many of the over cards are already out there. Short of having a monster, your best call here is with exactly something like 89s. I'm not dead set against folding here, but I think a good case can be made for a call. That's really what I'm trying to figure out.

Anyway, with that stack, and assuming that there aren't 4 other stacks as bad or worse off than me, I'm probably only about 25% to cash. Maybe less. I'll probably need to win a couple 60/40's just to get my stack back up to something reasonable. And what are the odds of winning two, or perhaps three, 60/40's in a row (even assuming I'm the 60 and not the 40)? Two 60/40's plus a steal would probably put me in the money, but I'd still have a smaller stack than if I just took my 20% now. Add in one more 60/40 and I'm looking at right around 20% (possibly best case) to put myself in the same chip stack, but by then, blinds are probably 600 or 800, and now I have an average stack with less fold equity.

As for everyone that claims I shouldn't be in this situation to begin with (or "almost never") in an 18p turbo, it's hard to believe you are serious. There are a bazillian things that could have brought me here, and assuming that the only reason is because I've been waiting for monster hands is just plain silly, and not even part of the question. I've played about 1,000 of these in the last month alone, and I've found myself in almost this exact situation at least 3 times that I can think of. I think I won once, and busted twice. I'm sure I've found myself very shortstacked at the final table a heck of a lot. At that point, you just hope to win a couple coinflips, or that your UTG shove with AJ holds up, etc. Arriving at the final table with 1500 chips (1/2 avg) might be better better odds than doubling up on the first hand, as far as odds of cashing. But that would be a question of its own, so let's not go there... ;-)

[Biff Goods]

We have the CL opening - then an all-in shove - and you want the SB and BB to come along for the ride?

It might be a 6k pot but the OP has nine high. 9 HIGH. How is this not a fold?

How about instead of relying on 'luck' the OP makes a more pointed attack.

Granted the OP is in bad shape but by no means on life support. At this point the objective is to cash. 'Top 4' right?

A call here is waaaaay risky.

If this was a tournament where only first place is rewarded, that would be a more compelling reason to call but you've got to fold.

Look I'm not advocating that this is a standard way to play by any means....But the OP has 2.5bb's. What's waaaaaaaaay risky is getting into this situation in the first place. There is no fold equity and with antes in play if we wait another "six" spots and say we get KK utg and double up? Guess what...we will more than likely be right where we started when the blinds come around. This is a good situation to make 6-7x times our stack! 6-7X'S! So we have 9 high....but it's a suited connector which gives us a lot of ways to win pf against any hand. I don't just shove me stack in with ATC and hope for the best everytime I play but I see this being a great opportunity to get back into a tourny that otherwise is doomed to end very soon for us anyway. Plus if we just lost the last hand with AQ vs AK we should be putting a post-it note over the cards in this hand and shoving anyway. Do you have a nephew named Broomcorn?

[kreppsen]

I'm still not claiming a call is absolutely the right play, but things to consider:
Calling with 9 high in this position is probably a much better move than calling with Ace rag, K rag, or Q rag or even something like QT. It's likely that many of the over cards are already out there. Short of having a monster, your best call here is with exactly something like 89s. I'm not dead set against folding here, but I think a good case can be made for a call. That's really what I'm trying to figure out.

At that point, you just hope to win a couple coinflips, or that your UTG shove with AJ holds up, etc. Arriving at the final table with 1500 chips (1/2 avg) might be better better odds than doubling up on the first hand, as far as odds of cashing. But that would be a question of its own, so let's not go there... ;-)

Don't you think the SB and the BB will come along as well with 87,98 and such because they also think that the overcards are out? Also, there's probably 3 people involved in this hand without you so there will probably be someone busting out, giving out a better chance of finishing in the money

Also, you say we gotta win a few coinflips... We are NOT coinflipping with 89s, we are a huge underdog!

[MaxStPolish]

Look I'm not advocating that this is a standard way to play by any means....But the OP has 2.5bb's. What's waaaaaaaaay risky is getting into this situation in the first place. There is no fold equity and with antes in play if we wait another "six" spots and say we get KK utg and double up? Guess what...we will more than likely be right where we started when the blinds come around. This is a good situation to make 6-7x times our stack! 6-7X'S! So we have 9 high....but it's a suited connector which gives us a lot of ways to win pf against any hand. I don't just shove me stack in with ATC and hope for the best everytime I play but I see this being a great opportunity to get back into a tourny that otherwise is doomed to end very soon for us anyway. Plus if we just lost the last hand with AQ vs AK we should be putting a post-it note over the cards in this hand and shoving anyway. Do you have a nephew named Broomcorn?

Antes, what antes? See OP.

Yes, if antes are in play here and you have 2.5 BB's you should have shoved each of the last dozen hands, and you should get in this one too. Without antes you wait here IMO. Then again with 2.5BB's I get the basis for getting in here in a family pot for a big chip up.